uncle W Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, those were the last cold winters since our snowier era began in 02-03. Colder than normal winters bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020-2021 36.1 0 2019-2020 39.2 0 2018-2019 36.3 0 2017-2018 36.2 0 2016-2017 39.3 0 2015-2016 41.0 0 2014-2015 31.4 0 2013-2014 32.9 0 2012-2013 36.8 0 2011-2012 40.5 0 2010-2011 32.8 0 2009-2010 33.8 0 2008-2009 34.2 0 2007-2008 36.4 0 2006-2007 36.5 0 2005-2006 37.3 0 2004-2005 35.4 0 2003-2004 32.4 0 2002-2003 31.2 0 last 20 winters in NYC... year...........DJF ONI...snowfall...Dec-Feb temp... 2001-02..........-0.1..........3.5".....41.5.....warm snowless... 2002-03.........+0.9.......49.3".....31.2...cold snowy... 2003-04.........+0.4.......42.6".....32.4...cold snowy... 2004-05.........+0.6.......41.0".....35.4...ave...snowy... 2005-06..........-0.9.......40.0".....37.3...mild snowy... 2006-07..........+0.6.......12.4".....36.5...mild snowless... 2007-08..........-1.6........11.9".....36.4...mild snowless... 2008-09..........-0.8.......27.6".....34.2...cold near ave snow... 2009-10..........+1.5.......51.4".....33.8...cold snowy... 2010-11...........-1.4........61.9".....32.7...cold snowy... 2011-12...........-0.9.........7.4".....40.5...warm snowless... 2012-13..........-0.4.......26.1".....36.9...mild near ave snow... 2013-14..........-0.4.......57.4".....33.0...cold snowy... 2014-15.........+0.5.......50.3".....31.7...cold snowy... 2015-16.........+2.5.......32.8".....41.0...warm ave snow... 2016-17..........-0.3.......30.2".....39.3...warm ave snow... 2017-18..........-0.9.......40.9".....36.2...mild snowy... 2018-19..........+0.7.......20.5".....36.2...mild below ave snow... 2019-20..........+0.5........4.8".....39.1...warm snowless... 2020-21..........-1.0.......38.6".....36.1...mild snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 36 here currently after a high of 45 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 9 hours ago, uncle W said: last 20 winters in NYC... year...........DJF ONI...snowfall...Dec-Feb temp... 2001-02..........-0.1..........3.5".....41.5.....warm snowless... 2002-03.........+0.9.......49.3".....31.2...cold snowy... 2003-04.........+0.4.......42.6".....32.4...cold snowy... 2004-05.........+0.6.......41.0".....35.4...ave...snowy... 2005-06..........-0.9.......40.0".....37.3...mild snowy... 2006-07..........+0.6.......12.4".....36.5...mild snowless... 2007-08..........-1.6........11.9".....36.4...mild snowless... 2008-09..........-0.8.......27.6".....34.2...cold near ave snow... 2009-10..........+1.5.......51.4".....33.8...cold snowy... 2010-11...........-1.4........61.9".....32.7...cold snowy... 2011-12...........-0.9.........7.4".....40.5...warm snowless... 2012-13..........-0.4.......26.1".....36.9...mild near ave snow... 2013-14..........-0.4.......57.4".....33.0...cold snowy... 2014-15.........+0.5.......50.3".....31.7...cold snowy... 2015-16.........+2.5.......32.8".....41.0...warm ave snow... 2016-17..........-0.3.......30.2".....39.3...warm ave snow... 2017-18..........-0.9.......40.9".....36.2...mild snowy... 2018-19..........+0.7.......20.5".....36.2...mild below ave snow... 2019-20..........+0.5........4.8".....39.1...warm snowless... 2020-21..........-1.0.......38.6".....36.1...mild snowy what were the winter average temperatures in 1993-94 and 1995-96? 2002-03 being the coldest really brings home the point that it was so underrated. We had a snowy April too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 9 hours ago, jm1220 said: 03-04 I remember as being particularly frigid. The early Jan clipper in single digits that dropped 8” of powder, icebergs forming in the saltwater back bays, ice cutters on the Hudson etc. but 2002-03 was colder which shows why its underrated, and snowier and much longer too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: what were the winter average temperatures in 1993-94 and 1995-96? 2002-03 being the coldest really brings home the point that it was so underrated. We had a snowy April too NYC average DJF 30 year climate normals…. 1991-2020….2020s….36.2 1981-2010…..2010s….35.1 1971-2000…..2000s…34.7 1961-1990…..1990s….33.9 Cold departure winters bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020-2021 36.1 0 2019-2020 39.2 0 2018-2019 36.3 0 2017-2018 36.2 0 2016-2017 39.3 0 2015-2016 41.0 0 2014-2015 31.4 0 2013-2014 32.9 0 2012-2013 36.8 0 2011-2012 40.5 0 2010-2011 32.8 0 2009-2010 33.8 0 2008-2009 34.2 0 2007-2008 36.4 0 2006-2007 36.5 0 2005-2006 37.3 0 2004-2005 35.4 0 2003-2004 32.4 0 2002-2003 31.2 0 2001-2002 41.5 0 2000-2001 33.5 0 1999-2000 36.2 0 1998-1999 38.6 0 1997-1998 39.6 0 1996-1997 37.8 0 1995-1996 32.2 0 1994-1995 37.1 0 1993-1994 31.1 0 1992-1993 35.0 0 1991-1992 37.2 0 1990-1991 39.1 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(39/49), or -1. Month to date is 49.4[-0.3]. Should be near 47.8[-0.5] by the 28th. Reached 48 here yesterday. Today: 46-49, wind s. to sw., cloudier late. EURO is the coldest for the next 10, with a little snow on the 28th./29th. 38*(68%RH) here at 6am. 40* at 8am. 42* at 9pm. 44* at 10am. 47* at Noon. Reached 48* at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 27 here, coldest overnite temp thus far this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 36 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 29 in wantagh for the coldest of the season. Still only managed 35 at the Park. So the growing season continues on the uws. I just started potting my elephant ears here on campus for the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 27.2 in Syosset & 25.7 in Muttontown this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 26 for the low here-leaves dropping fast this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 I cannot wait to settle in tonight / relax and make a fire in my fireplace in other news it is 32 degrees here right now ( cold enough to snow and stick ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 With the colder -NAO+PNA pattern for the rest of the month, November will follow the recent theme of having the coldest monthly departure of fall. EWR….+1.5 NYC….-0.3 LGA…+1.4 JFK….+0.9 ISP…..+0.2 BDR…-0.2 HPN..-0.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 49° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.6° Newark: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.4° Milder air will return tomorrow. However, a fresh push of cold air is likely early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Low of 33 here. Coldest of the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoggyO Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 NYC average DJF 30 year climate normals…. 1991-2020….2020s….36.2 1981-2010…..2010s….35.1 1971-2000…..2000s…34.7 1961-1990…..1990s….33.9 At the current rate, in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA. Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 26 degrees this morning. Coldest so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, FoggyO said: NYC average DJF 30 year climate normals…. 1991-2020….2020s….36.2 1981-2010…..2010s….35.1 1971-2000…..2000s…34.7 1961-1990…..1990s….33.9 At the current rate, in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA. Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. Not necessarily. Most of us had 40" or more snow last winter with it being above average temps. Average snow has been increasing with the temps. It definitely won't last forever but we're moving to a climate where we have 2-3 big storms give us snow vs numerous smaller storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been among the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region. Thanks! Talk about polar opposite winters! Good to see we are closer to 2016 so far, two great storms that winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 27.9 this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Talk about polar opposite winters! Good to see we are closer to 2016 so far, two great storms that winter. 2016-2017 was one of our warmest winters due to the powerful La Niña Pacific Jet. But it was also snowy since we had favorable Atlantic blocking intervals for memorable snowstorms. So hopefully we can do OK in the snowfall department if the winter turns out warm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Overnight low of 27 here. Current temp 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region. Now in the ENSO subsurface we have all warm anomalies. I'd love to see if there are examples of an ENSO state that had an opposite anomaly dominant in the central subsurface during November... 1988 is the only example I can think of (opposite). We all know 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. and there was actually high pressure from Japan to SE US all through Winter 87-88. Skewed averages puts subsurface warmth at probably ~0.0 now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 After several sub freezing nights I can finally say everything is dead and growing season is over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 324 is a cave ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 2016-2017 was one of our warmest winters due to the powerful La Niña Pacific Jet. But it was also snowy since we had favorable Atlantic blocking intervals for memorable snowstorms. So hopefully we can do OK in the snowfall department if the winter turns out warm. Looking at your snips of this year vs. 2016, PAC looks a little worse however the Atlantic, blocking looks to be in a better position. Feb 2018 shows that we can get a decent snowstorm in a sea of 60s and 70s temps. Personally I HATE the cold but LOVE snowstorms (if it snowed in Florida I would be there already). So selfishly, the warmer times this century coupled with this being an extremely snowy time since 2000/2001 (only 6 below average snowfall seasons here this century) have made me a happy camper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 if you look at 2017-18's daily AO it snowed most of the time the AO was negative big time or briefly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, uncle W said: if you look at 2017-18's daily AO it snowed most of the time the AO was negative big time or briefly... This is why I am not too worried about this winter as of yet, blocking looks to be there to some degree even though the Pacific looks fairly poor. We are far enough north where a good storm track (coupled with a depening storm) will yield results. I can't remember the last time we had a winter of blocking with below average snowfall (I think 97/98 may have had great blocking but far below average snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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