November 2021

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and much cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 50°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.8°; 15-Year: 52.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 53.6°; 15-Year: 53.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.6°; 15-Year: 54.7°

The weekend will start chilly but end mild.

[nyrangers1022]

Some houses warm up nicely in sunshine and don't get cold quick at night.  Good insulation does wonders

[bluewave]

While we get a strong -NAO/-AO block  next week, it’s becoming more south based than the models were indicating several days ago. A block approaching 588 dm south of Greenland is near record levels for this time of year. But like we have seen since last winter, these blocks extending south to New England aren’t as cold as the traditional Greenland blocks. 
 

New run

 

Old run

 

South based blocking dominating since last winter

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we get a strong -NAO/-AO block  next week, it’s becoming more south based than the models were indicating several days ago. A block approaching 588 dm south of Greenland is near record levels for this time of year. But like we have seen since last winter, these blocks extending south to New England aren’t as cold as the traditional Greenland blocks. 
 

New run

 

Old run

 

South based blocking dominating since last winter

 

Looks like a gradient pattern to me. Maybe a storm next weekend and our first flakes ?

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

It’s also not very logical long-term, and even worse for the environment and your furnace compressor. Once you really do want the heat on, and your home has fallen to sub-50°F, the outside temperature is likely close to or below freezing. Now, you’ll be asking your furnace to be running constantly with no downtime just to get your home up to the temperature you want, adding unnecessary wear and tear on the furnace itself.

I don’t know what point he’s trying to make, as furnace replacements can cost in excess of $8K, and even more in the high-demand cold season.


.

Come on bro. It hasn’t been that cold bro. I swear I haven’t touched the thermostat bro. Trust me bro.
 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  45degs.(39/51), or Normal.

Month to date is  49.7[-0.2].        Should be near  48.2[-0.1] by the 27th.

Reached 66 here yesterday.

Today:   46-49, wind nw.-breezy, m.sunny.       Only snow threat is now the 29th.       GFS checked its calendar, and has corrected colder for the start of December!    

42*(52%RH) here at 6am.   44* at 9am.       46* at Noon.      48* at 1pm.       47* again at 2pm.

[North and West]

Come on bro. It hasn’t been that cold bro. I swear I haven’t touched the thermostat bro. Trust me bro.
 

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.


.

[MJO812]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like our Great Lakes cutter early next week becomes a 50/50 low. Then we watch to see if the models are correct about a SWFE near the end of November. That period would probably be the one to watch for some early flakes or a mix. But with the way the models have been with long range storm tracks recently, we would need to see it hold to within 120 hrs for more forecast confidence. 

 

Agree

Anything past 200 hours is gravy

[Brian5671]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like a gradient pattern to me. Maybe a storm next weekend and our first flakes ?

those patterns favor central and northern NE.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those patterns favor central and northern NE.

Exactly. The only way the coast is seeing snow anytime soon is with a perfectly placed powerful low. Think post Sandy storm. Water temps are ridiculously warm for this time of year. The flow has to be straight north. Any east at all and it’s torch city. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those patterns favor central and northern NE.

Depends how much blocking we have 

Looks like you don't like this pattern. What pattern do you ever like ?

[MJO812]

La Nina winters are usually good for our area in December and January before the winter turns to crap in February. 

[dmillz25]

I for one don’t really care about snow in November. If it happens cool if not oh well. 2nd week of December and on I start paying more attention to snow

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

La Nina winters are usually good for our area in December and January before the winter turns to crap in February. 

We’ll have to wait and see what happens after the the colder period with blocking from late November into early December. The extended EPS goes -PNA by the 2nd week of December. But that is still way out there for the extended EPS accuracy.

Nov 29-Dec 6

Dec 6-13

 

[ForestHillWx]

Flurries out this way this morning. Lasted about 2 minutes. 

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Depends how much blocking we have 

Looks like you don't like this pattern. What pattern do you ever like ?

2013-14 2014-15 type patterns.  Strong -EPO to deliver the cold.    Atlantic blocking is good too-but if it's pacific origin air you're just trapping a crappy airmass and that's what I see with this at least for a couple of weeks

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens after the the colder period with blocking from late November into early December. The extended EPS goes -PNA by the 2nd week of December. But that is still way out there for the extended EPS accuracy.

Nov 29-Dec 6

Dec 6-13

 

At least the Alaskan vortex goes away. Looks like a gradient pattern.

[snowman19]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens after the the colder period with blocking from late November into early December. The extended EPS goes -PNA by the 2nd week of December. But that is still way out there for the extended EPS accuracy.

Nov 29-Dec 6

Dec 6-13

 

The EPS also loses the -AO/-NAO in early December and we go RNA/-PNA. The question then becomes the WPO, with a +EPO if you want to keep a cold supply nearby in Canada…..you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO), the more poleward the better, a flat Aleutian ridge definitely will not cut it. The +EPO is also going to limit how cold it can actually get here

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least the Alaskan vortex goes away. Looks like a gradient pattern.

We definitely need that gone...some of our warmest/snowless winters have featured a strong Vortex near AK

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

We definitely need that gone...some of our warmest/snowless winters have featured a strong Vortex near AK

Somewhat OT but for fans of Deadliest Catch, it seems when they have the awful, cold, stormy winters to deal with we bake. Hopefully for us there’s no ice and few storms there.  

[MJO812]

All 3 major models have  the storm during this time frame. 1st legit threat to watch especially for the interior?

 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All 3 major models have  the storm during this time frame. 1st legit threat to watch especially for the interior?

 

That PNA rise is big. Hopefully it stays on the models.

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens after the the colder period with blocking from late November into early December. The extended EPS goes -PNA by the 2nd week of December. But that is still way out there for the extended EPS accuracy.

Nov 29-Dec 6

Dec 6-13

 

Yeah the lack of run-to-run consistency has been problematic over the past few years (mostly because of the PAC firehose).  This is admittedly somewhat of a crapshoot, but overall, I'd say the balance of factors favors a winter somewhat similar to last year's.  It'll have some boring periods and probably not much biting cold thanks to a less-than-ideal PAC, but when we get ATL help, we'll score some decent snowfall events.   We could always get lucky and have the Niña concentrate more too the east, have the stars allign on the ATL side like in "95–'96, or get some perfectly-timed and positioned SSW, but those are just wild cards.

Last year was serviceable (at least here in NYC).  I'd take that again and be happy.

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

2013-14 2014-15 type patterns.  Strong -EPO to deliver the cold.    Atlantic blocking is good too-but if it's pacific origin air you're just trapping a crappy airmass and that's what I see with this at least for a couple of weeks

This X 1000!  Two of the best winters of my lifetime.  I hope we see that again soon!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

This X 1000!  Two of the best winters of my lifetime.  I hope we see that again soon!

Yeah, those were the  last cold winters since our snowier era began in 02-03. 
 

Colder than normal winters bolded
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2020-2021	36.1	0
2019-2020	39.2	0
2018-2019	36.3	0
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0
2008-2009	34.2	0
2007-2008	36.4	0
2006-2007	36.5	0
2005-2006	37.3	0
2004-2005	35.4	0
2003-2004	32.4	0
2002-2003	31.2	0

[Mr. Kevin]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were our last cold winters since our snowier era began in 02-03. 
 

Cold winters bolded
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2020-2021	36.1	0
2019-2020	39.2	0
2018-2019	36.3	0
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0
2008-2009	34.2	0
2007-2008	36.4	0
2006-2007	36.5	0
2005-2006	37.3	0
2004-2005	35.4	0
2003-2004	32.4	0
2002-2003	31.2	0

Chris, what are you thoughts on a -qbo and east based niña? Looks like the qbo has switched to Easterly at 50mb if it means anything 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, North and West said:

It’s also not very logical long-term, and even worse for the environment and your furnace compressor. Once you really do want the heat on, and your home has fallen to sub-50°F, the outside temperature is likely close to or below freezing. Now, you’ll be asking your furnace to be running constantly with no downtime just to get your home up to the temperature you want, adding unnecessary wear and tear on the furnace itself.

I don’t know what point he’s trying to make, as furnace replacements can cost in excess of $8K, and even more in the high-demand cold season.


.

The worst feeling in the world has to be trying to turn your furnace or boiler on when it's sub 50 inside and realizing it doesn't work.  So you need a plumber to come and fix or even replace it, which will cost an arm and a leg and they're all backed up and can't do it for a week.  That happened to me, not the sub 50 part, because I can't tolerate cold below 70 without heat lol  but a few years ago I needed to get my boiler replaced and all I had was my space heaters to keep my bedroom warm while the rest of the house was damn cold.

 

[donsutherland1]

With temperatures holding in the 40s, it felt and looked like autumn.

 

[donsutherland1]

Noticeably colder air is now in place. The weekend will start on a chilly note, but end with milder conditions. Another surge of cold air is likely early next week. The cold air will be preceded by a period of rain or showers. A strong storm will develop well offshore following the frontal passage, but will not have a significant impact on the Philadelphia to New York City areas.

In the wake of next week's cold front, New York City's Central Park could see its first freeze on either November 23 or November 24. That would be slightly later than the mean 1991-2020 date of November 20. Last year's first freeze occurred on October 31, which was the earliest first freeze since 1988.

The temperature anomaly for November 20-30 will likely wind up somewhat below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts continue to suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period):

Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4°
New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7°
Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7°

The duration of the blocking is uncertain. Should blocking dissipate, warmer conditions could develop near the start of December.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 19 4 pm is 16.23".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +13.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.729 today.

On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.115 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.351 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal).

 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were the  last cold winters since our snowier era began in 02-03. 
 

Colder than normal winters bolded
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2020-2021	36.1	0
2019-2020	39.2	0
2018-2019	36.3	0
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0
2008-2009	34.2	0
2007-2008	36.4	0
2006-2007	36.5	0
2005-2006	37.3	0
2004-2005	35.4	0
2003-2004	32.4	0
2002-2003	31.2	0

03-04 I remember as being particularly frigid. The early Jan clipper in single digits that dropped 8” of powder, icebergs forming in the saltwater back bays, ice cutters on the Hudson etc.