winterwx21 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:08 PM, Brian5671 said: seems that the temps on the warmup as are always above forecast though Expand Yeah we usually go a few degrees above forecast whenever there's full sunshine. 70 degrees was no surprise today. Several days ago I said I thought we'd hit it today. It's actually 71 here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 11:30 AM, bluewave said: The near record warm ocean is more impressive. Long Island pushing 60° with a southerly wind. The SSTs are still near 60° in late November. Shirley CLEAR 59 51 75 S9 Expand I saw somewhere it's considered a marine heat wave now off the northeast coast. They concluded this marine heat wave was a significant factor in the record rain and flooding in the Ida remnants event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Reached 70 here as of 3 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:07 PM, SnoSki14 said: Meh we always get 70s in November. Nothing special. Maybe if it was 80F Expand Speaking of 80F temperatures, Phoenix has just recorded its November-record 18th consecutive 80F or above temperature. The previous record of 17 consecutive days was set during November 1-17, 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Continuation of the coldest departures going to our south on the latest extended EPS. Looks like the -AO and -NAO peak during the last week of November before weakening in early December. But the +EPO La Niña influence remains constant. November 22-29 Nov 29-Dec 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 8:19 PM, bluewave said: Continuation of the coldest departures going to our south on the latest extended EPS. Looks like the -AO and -NAO peak during the last week of November before weakening in early December. But the +EPO La Niña influence remains constant. November 22-29 Nov 29-Dec 6 Expand How much snow for Jacksonville? Find it ironic Florida is the only state with blue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 It looks like 2 snow chances https://ibb.co/bs8vTWm https://ibb.co/BKCnq7c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 8:33 PM, Wentzadelphia said: How much snow for Jacksonville? Find it ironic Florida is the only state with blue Expand The Southeast will have departures approaching -20 before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 8:19 PM, bluewave said: Continuation of the coldest departures going to our south on the latest extended EPS. Looks like the -AO and -NAO peak during the last week of November before weakening in early December. But the +EPO La Niña influence remains constant. November 22-29 Nov 29-Dec 6 Expand And no cross-polar flow connection so no real arctic cold. That’s why our departures aren’t cold right through early December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:10 PM, snowman19 said: And no cross-polar flow connection so no real arctic cold. That’s why our departures aren’t cold right through early December Expand Weeklies don't look bad for our area in early to mid December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:32 PM, snowman19 said: November 18th and I still have not had to turn my heat on once. Can’t ever remember that happening Expand Are you waiting till your house says 50F 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:32 PM, Brian5671 said: yeah the key is the SW component, a S wind would keep most of us cooler right off the water... Expand Not much cooler, jfk is 61 with winds ripping off water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:19 PM, SnoSki14 said: Are you waiting till your house says 50F Expand We had plenty of cold nights lately 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:10 PM, snowman19 said: And no cross-polar flow connection so no real arctic cold. That’s why our departures aren’t cold right through early December Expand Cold air supply does appear to be problematic here with the lack of a -EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:26 PM, Brian5671 said: Cold air supply does appear to be problematic here with the lack of a -EPO. Expand We need the Aleutian ridge to stick its head as far north as possible. That means cold air can at least get mixed into the pattern via cross polar flow. If that ridge is flat, maritime air floods the continent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:41 PM, jm1220 said: We need the Aleutian ridge to stick its head as far north as possible. That means cold air can at least get mixed into the pattern via cross polar flow. If that ridge is flat, maritime air floods the continent. Expand yeah, as modeled that would be 30's and 40's for us-any storm would likely be a cold rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:41 PM, jm1220 said: We need the Aleutian ridge to stick its head as far north as possible. That means cold air can at least get mixed into the pattern via cross polar flow. If that ridge is flat, maritime air floods the continent. Expand Exactly. You need the Aleutian ridge to go as poleward as possible (-WPO) to help seed Canada with cross-polar/arctic air. A flat Aleutian ridge won’t do jack squat. That said, you still have the +EPO problem which would limit how cold it can actually get. All models agree on continued +EPO and you are going to have RNA/-PNA. Any +PNA pop isn’t going to last with the current background states in the Pacific (Niña/-PDO/-PMM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Ahead of an advancing cold front, temperatures soared into the 60s and 70s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 65° Baltimore: 74° Boston: 70° Bridgeport: 64° Islip: 64° New York City: 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 73° Poughkeepsie: 69° (tied record set in 1953 and 1963) Providence: 69° Washington, DC: 74° Wilmington, DE: 71° Newark reached 70° for the 177th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. Noticeably colder air will return tomorrow. A generally dry and chilly weekend lies ahead. Another surge of cold air is possible early next week. Overall, it is likely that the temperature anomaly for the second half of November will be somewhat below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts continue to suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. The duration of the blocking is uncertain. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 18 4 pm is 16.13". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +17.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.617 today. On November 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.343 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.352 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 10:20 PM, donsutherland1 said: The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter Expand We haven't had a strong La Nina in 11 years now. Averages are warmer, so it's probably more like a Moderate La Nina, but I think there is a somewhat -PNA disconnect coming up, so it could be -Neutral/Weak Nina.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:50 PM, dWave said: I saw somewhere it's considered a marine heat wave now off the northeast coast. They concluded this marine heat wave was a significant factor in the record rain and flooding in the Ida remnants event. Expand On 11/18/2021 at 7:50 PM, dWave said: Expand I thought a front combined with Ida accounted for the rainfall? The record rainfall amounts were predicted by the models, and I'm pretty sure they didn't take into consideration the ocean temperature feeding more moisture in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Tonight’s cold front has passed through here. I have light rain and the temperature is down to 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:01 PM, bluewave said: The Southeast will have departures approaching -20 before Thanksgiving. Expand I went to college in Daytona. There were a handful of times when the temperature down there was colder in the winter than it was in New York City. It usually involved the scenario you have posted here plus a cold front that cleared Florida but was hung up clearing the northeast… Which is also unusual because while Florida is to the west a cold front usually moves northwest to southeast. Think cutter scenario. Temperatures would be in the mid 40s in Florida and low 50s in NYC. These scenarios always occurred on winter nights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/19/2021 at 2:26 AM, jfklganyc said: I went to college in Daytona. There were a handful of times when the temperature down there was colder in the winter than it was in New York City. It usually involved the scenario you have posted here plus a cold front that cleared Florida but was hung up clearing the northeast… Which is also unusual because while Florida is to the west a cold front usually moves northwest to southeast. Think cutter scenario. Temperatures would be in the mid 40s in Florida and low 50s in NYC. These scenarios always occurred on winter nights Expand Not uncommon, we were in 70s in December few years back with 40s in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:32 PM, Brian5671 said: yeah the key is the SW component, a S wind would keep most of us cooler right off the water... Expand water is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 10:52 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: We haven't had a strong La Nina in 11 years now. Averages are warmer, so it's probably more like a Moderate La Nina, but I think there is a somewhat -PNA disconnect coming up, so it could be -Neutral/Weak Nina.. Expand ENSO state only has a 20% of an impact on our weather, there are other more important factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:45 PM, Brian5671 said: yeah, as modeled that would be 30's and 40's for us-any storm would likely be a cold rain Expand 70 is preferable to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:07 PM, SnoSki14 said: Meh we always get 70s in November. Nothing special. Maybe if it was 80F Expand 80, November 15th 1993....latest it ever happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 7:03 PM, uncle W said: Nice analog Expand 2010 was much hotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/19/2021 at 3:09 AM, LibertyBell said: ENSO state only has a 20% of an impact on our weather, there are other more important factors Expand Watch the ENSO subsurface cool as the 384hr GFS ensemble mean has a +400dm -PNA in 15 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/19/2021 at 3:21 AM, LibertyBell said: you enjoy your pipes freezing? it's been in the low 30s here on Long Island several times, stop lying Rainman. For this alone you should be limited to 1 post per day It’s also not very logical long-term, and even worse for the environment and your furnace compressor. Once you really do want the heat on, and your home has fallen to sub-50°F, the outside temperature is likely close to or below freezing. Now, you’ll be asking your furnace to be running constantly with no downtime just to get your home up to the temperature you want, adding unnecessary wear and tear on the furnace itself.I don’t know what point he’s trying to make, as furnace replacements can cost in excess of $8K, and even more in the high-demand cold season.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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