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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. A few locations will reach the lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 62°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 54.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.4°

Ahead of the next cold front, tomorrow will be unseasonably warm.

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 The next 8 days are averaging  48degs.(42/58), or +2.

Month to date is  49.4[-0.8].        Should be about  48.9[+0.2] by the 25th.

Reached 51 here yesterday.

Today: 54-57, wind s., p. cloudy, 55 tomorrow AM.     Last 10 days of the month no longer look that cold.    Ending Nov. into Dec. at +10's?    A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Winter----Spring!

44*(61%RH) here at 6am. {was 43* at 2am.}      50* at 9am.      53* at 11am.      54* at Noon.       Reached 58* at 3pm.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing to correct stronger with the blocking near Greenland next week. The ensemble mean has a 400 meter anomaly at 500 mb .Operational models are even stronger. The last time we had such a strong block near Greenland in late November during a La Niña was 2010. But this one looks like it may be centered a little further south like we have seen with the blocking in recent years.

 

3DF0907A-E128-4A7B-8921-4D53774EEAF3.thumb.jpeg.90c74fffad4526de2f5dec3df7aea307.jpeg
D53BCD87-1333-451B-9B50-B2275F3CD591.gif.6cdc8b0ad6482e1849e1cf1ea69df5b9.gif

 

If the MJO progresses as expected, the pattern will turn mild and we loose the blocking as we get into early December. The composites for MJO 4, 5, 6 along with La Niña and -AAM look like this in December: 

 

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the MJO progresses as expected, the pattern will turn mild and we loose the blocking as we get into early December. The composites for MJO 4, 5, 6 along with La Niña and -AAM look like this in December: 

 

We heard you a million times

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing to correct stronger with the blocking near Greenland next week. The ensemble mean has a 400 meter anomaly at 500 mb .Operational models are even stronger. The last time we had such a strong block near Greenland in late November during a La Niña was 2010. But this one looks like it may be centered a little further south like we have seen with the blocking in recent years.

 

3DF0907A-E128-4A7B-8921-4D53774EEAF3.thumb.jpeg.90c74fffad4526de2f5dec3df7aea307.jpeg
D53BCD87-1333-451B-9B50-B2275F3CD591.gif.6cdc8b0ad6482e1849e1cf1ea69df5b9.gif

 

December is going to be very interesting for snow lovers .

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Did he even look at the MJO forecasts. Majority show the MJO going to 7-1

image.png.eae44ce4b29da08c8c185873293201dc.png

 

image.png.dfc8df5225d21112b5115cf55875e43e.png

 

image.png.924757f6ec58b078744961b59333bf03.png

He never does.  The La Niña has basically peaked and is becoming more east based.  That could lead to a stronger MJO down the road . Just what you want to see…

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