SnowGoose69 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: This La Niña is about to strengthen big time @donsutherland1 @bluewave: I feel as if we see these posts every year for El Nino and La Nina in mid to late November and it never transpires. Its extremely rare to see a Nina Nino undergo any noticeable strengthening once you get this late into the fall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I feel as if we see these posts every year for El Nino and La Nina in mid to late November and it never transpires. Its extremely rare to see a Nina Nino undergo any noticeable strengthening once you get this late into the fall. Except data says buckle up its coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 We will need a strong enough storm Thanksgiving week for our first -10 departure of fall behind the cold front. Our last multi station average below -10 was the July 4th weekend. The only recent fall without one averaged for our climate division was the 2016 La Niña. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=high&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Except data says buckle up its coming Yes a cold December is coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 I think 2010 was our last truly cold December. 2017 had a frigid ending but I don't think it qualifies overall. I wonder if it would take a predominantly -NAO and -EPO pattern to get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Yes a cold December is coming Good bet Newark hits 70 again in December 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Frozen turkeys this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 A forecast will bust—either calls for a cold winter or nature’s seemingly warm outlook: Viburnum Witch Hazel Lilac 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 I like checking in again after not being on the boards in eight months and seeing that nothing ever changes in regards to warm/cold battles and who can cancel winter the quickest. Hopefully we have some fun storms to track this winter.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Interior areas might see snow near Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Nice negative NAO on the EPS as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice negative NAO on the EPS as we move forward. Yeah it's a nice look. Love how's it's been trending in that direction too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 So, I know some others here have been talking about snow to the coast on the ensembles, in the previous few days for Thanksgiving week. It (like the period of the 12th-15th) is an impressive trough digging into the east next week (12z/14 multi ensembles) and seems to want to go negative. Also noting these shortwaves are ending up a little further west each run in an unstable flow pattern across the northern USA. IF this still looks reasonable in the 00z/15 multimodal ensembles, would start a thread tomorrow morning for the period 11/21-23 with 1" qpf, maybe iso max 4"?, or damaging wind (40-55kt coast), possible snow or flurries to the coast-favoring backside wraparound flurries. What further caught my eye is that it seems the NA block is more favorable (fully anchored) for a coastal storm sometime between the 26th-29th. By that time we'll know of the 21st-23rd storm develops a deep closed low heading toward 50N/50W. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Not much to cheer here for NYC snow lovers: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Not much to cheer here for NYC snow lovers: it's November 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 it's November 14th.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cool day. Much of the region will again see temperatures rise no higher than the middle and upper 40s. The cool weather will likely continue until midweek. Overall, there remains uncertainty about the temperature anomaly for the second half of November. However, the latest teleconnections forecasts now suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such an outcome favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 14 4 pm is 16.11". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.428 today. On November 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.104 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.135 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's November 14th. It's over! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 realistically it's cold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's over! Anyone looking for coastal snow in November needs to understand climatology. It happens, but it’s rare, even in the past during a colder climate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 5 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I think 2010 was our last truly cold December. 2017 had a frigid ending but I don't think it qualifies overall. I wonder if it would take a predominantly -NAO and -EPO pattern to get it done. 2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 hours ago, qg_omega said: Except data says buckle up its coming Yep. This one is coming. We are about to see explosive strengthening and it most likely goes into strong territory for a time. The tropical conditions all support it as does the record -PDO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. This one is coming. We are about to see explosive strengthening and it most likely goes into strong territory for a time. The tropical conditions all support it as does the record -PDO Whats coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Whats coming? The Niña strengthening. It’s happening despite what JB said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Niña strengthening. It’s happening despite what JB said When and how strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On the topic of snow it is snowing up in Mt. Pocono this evening with the trough swinging through. This is the second day in a row this has happened. This time it is actually accumulating on grassy areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, Tatamy said: On the topic of snow it is snowing up in Mt. Pocono this evening with the trough swinging through. This is the second day in a row this has happened. This time it is actually accumulating on grassy areas. I can confirm this. There is a coating on the grass here in Newfoundland Pa, 30 min north of Mt. Pocono, on the northern Pocono plateau. Elevation just under 2,100’. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Sleet snow and rain mix here in Williamsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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