bluewave Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: I'll stick my neck out for at least a good December...Last year was mild but had one good snowstorm which is all you can ask for these days... Maybe since the new December average temperature has risen to around 40°, near to below normal temperatures will be easier with a supporting pattern. ……1991-2020….1981-2010 NYC…..39.1°……37.5°……+1.6° EWR….38.0°……36.5°……+1.5° LGA…..40.0°……38.2°……+1.8° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Maybe since the new December average temperature has risen to around 40°, near to below normal temperatures will be easier with a supporting pattern. ……1991-2020….1981-2010 NYC…..39.1°……37.5°……+1.6° EWR….38.0°……36.5°……+1.5° LGA…..40.0°……38.2°……+1.8° My 1968 NYC Almanac which I have mentioned before---probably using 1931-1960 data---says the December Normal was then 35.9*! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, CIK62 said: My 1968 NYC Almanac which I have mentioned before---probably using 1931-1960 data---says the December Normal was then 35.9*! I probably have the same almanac somewhere...as a sports fan 1968 was Mantles last season and the Jets going to the Super bowl and winning...The Lindsey snowstorm in Feb 69...Woodstock in August 69...Mets win in October 69...after that no more champianships or major storms until 1977-78... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: true to some degree. How often do you see a mild/snowless winter forecasted? Certainly in 97-98/15-16 you could have gone insanely warm and been correct both times but its hard otherwise to do that, even in a strong Nina like 88-89/98-99/10-11 you could bust as you would have in 10-11 and even 98-99 was very cold for a stretch in Janaury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Certainly in 97-98/15-16 you could have gone insanely warm and been correct both times but its hard otherwise to do that, even in a strong Nina like 88-89/98-99/10-11 you could bust as you would have in 10-11 and even 98-99 was very cold for a stretch in Janaury And Dec 97 wasn't even warm. We just didn't get any well timed storms to take advantage of the colder periods. Then everything flipped around new years and it was torch city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we just don’t want the consolidated look to the polar vortex in the next frame. But that is outside the effective range. A more elongated vortex with higher heights near Greenland and the Aleutians would be better. Still plenty of time to see how it evolves. Yeah if it still looks that ugly in two or three weeks, then it might be time to close the shades for a bit. As of now, I’m not too concerned though. When all else fails, zoom out and think back. Last November, we were roasting and fearing a snowless winter, but it actually turned out to be a pretty decent one for snow lovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EpicJolee Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Have someone of you here NYC (Central Park) high / low temperature records for at least the last 50 years? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Certainly in 97-98/15-16 you could have gone insanely warm and been correct both times but its hard otherwise to do that, even in a strong Nina like 88-89/98-99/10-11 you could bust as you would have in 10-11 and even 98-99 was very cold for a stretch in Janaury and even 15-16 was a good winter with a historic blizzard and below zero in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 6 hours ago, CIK62 said: My 1968 NYC Almanac which I have mentioned before---probably using 1931-1960 data---says the December Normal was then 35.9*! wow when I was growing up in the 80s our normal for December was 36....and December 1989 averaged around 25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe since the new December average temperature has risen to around 40°, near to below normal temperatures will be easier with a supporting pattern. ……1991-2020….1981-2010 NYC…..39.1°……37.5°……+1.6° EWR….38.0°……36.5°……+1.5° LGA…..40.0°……38.2°……+1.8° I'm wondering how 40 could be normal for December when it was more like 36 when I was growing up in the 80s and December 1989 averaged around 25 We need to start dumping dust into the stratosphere to block some sunlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be rainy, windy, and mild. Thunderstorms are possible. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall is likely. Late clearing is likely. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 67° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.2° Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.1° Tomorrow will mark the start of a noticeably cooler period. A heavy shower or thundershower is possible in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(44/56), or +3. Reached 62 here yesterday. Today: 63-66, wind s. to w. to n., gusty to 2pm with rain up to 1". 50* by tomorrow AM. After some upper 40's it's more 60's. 63*(97%RH) here at 6am. 64* at 7am. 63* at 9am. 62* by Noon. 61* at 1pm. Reached 66* at 3pm as sun appeared in blue sky. 62* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Humid 62F at 7 am. Reminds me of xmas week weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Humid 62F at 7 am. Reminds me of xmas week weather Its before 7:30 and I have a mail truck full of packages. We sure it's not December 23rd? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROOME...WEST CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTIES... At 722 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Windsor, or 8 miles west of Deposit, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Afton around 735 AM EST. Bainbridge around 745 AM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 It was pouring leaves last night with the wind howling. The wind felt great with the mild temperatures. It's going to feel cold again when the temps drop this weekend to "seasonal" levels after a warm week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 7 hours ago, Eduardo said: Yeah if it still looks that ugly in two or three weeks, then it might be time to close the shades for a bit. As of now, I’m not too concerned though. When all else fails, zoom out and think back. Last November, we were roasting and fearing a snowless winter, but it actually turned out to be a pretty decent one for snow lovers. Remember, the models didn’t catch onto the winter forecast last year until December was practically starting. These early to mid November runs can have a type of fall forecast barrier effect. So anything beyond week 2 has very little skill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 7 hours ago, EpicJolee said: Have someone of you here NYC (Central Park) high / low temperature records for at least the last 50 years? Thanks. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi You can find NYC there as well as other sites. Not sure how far back it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 the highest minimum today is 56...so far 2021 is 61 for the min...by midnight it probably will get below 56 but this is the warmest 11/12 morning on record by a lot...2020 had record high mins on the 10th and 11th... 11/1 65 in 1956 63 in 1971 62 in 1982 11/2 67 in 1971 64 in 2018 64 in 1929 11/3 64 in 1936 62 in 1982 60 in 2003 11/4 62 in 1982 61 in 1975 61 in 1961 11/5 63 in 1938 62 in 1961 61 in 1959+ 11/6 66 in 2015 64 in 1938 61 in 1994+ 11/7 63 in 1938 60 in 1885 59 in 1912 11/8 63 in 1975 62 in 1996 59 in 1895 11/9 64 in 1895 62 in 1945 60 in 1975 11/10 60 in 2020 58 in 1977 58 in 1966 11/11 64 in 2020 60 in 2002 57 in 1970 11/12 56 in 1935 56 in 1912 55 in 1982 11/13 59 in 1909 57 in 1945 55 in 1961 11/14 58 in 1951 57 in 2008 57 in 1961 11/15 61 in 1989 58 in 2011 58 in 2008+ 11/16 59 in 2006 58 in 1927 57 in 1928 11/17 60 in 1927 57 in 1928 53 in 1918 11/18 57 in 1928 55 in 1921 54 in 1958+ 11/19 57 in 2015 57 in 1906 55 in 2003+ 11/20 62 in 1985 56 in 1913 56 in 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Remember, the models didn’t catch onto the winter forecast last year until December was practically starting. These early to mid November runs can have a type of fall forecast barrier effect. So anything beyond week 2 has very little skill. Its interesting how again we seem to be seeing the tendency for fall or early winter blocking once again following a winter where the NAO predominantly was negative. We've seen that several times now in a fall or winter the last 25-30 years where the background state otherwise should not have favored it...ultimately in the end those years eventually do see a positive NAO state take over and I think we will this year by 1/15 or so. But 96-97/10-11, even Nov/Dec 2001 had a negative NAO for a good portion of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its interesting how again we seem to be seeing the tendency for fall or early winter blocking once again following a winter where the NAO predominantly was negative. We've seen that several times now in a fall or winter the last 25-30 years where the background state otherwise should not have favored it...ultimately in the end those years eventually do see a positive NAO state take over and I think we will this year by 1/15 or so. But 96-97/10-11, even Nov/Dec 2001 had a negative NAO for a good portion of the time. I think we have moved into a new background state. One where the reduced sea ice near the Kara and Barents seas interacts with the SPV and Urals ridge. Last November into December was a recent example of how the pattern can dramatically reverse. The same went for December 2015 into January 2016. So that may be why seasonal models in the fall have been so far off with the winter NAO state. Our new winter blocking regimes near Greenland have been linked to that Urals ridge. Before 2003, our winter blocking episodes often didn’t have that connection. So it’s very challenging to try and forecast monthly NAO changes during the winter before they actually occur. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think we have moved into a new background state. One where the reduced sea ice near the Kara and Barents seas interacts with the SPV and Urals ridge. Last November into December was a recent example of how the pattern can dramatically reverse. The same went for December 2015 into January 2016. So that may be why seasonal models in the fall have been so far off with the winter NAO state. Our new winter blocking regimes near Greenland have been linked to that Urals ridge. Before 2003, our winter blocking episodes often didn’t have that connection. So it’s very challenging to try and forecast monthly NAO changes during the winter before they actually occur. ^^This^^ Also explains the string of warm winters coupled with blockbuster snowstorms that we've seen since 2015. I wonder if the super-Niño had anything to do with shuffling things up. It was such a huge phenomenon that you'd think there'd have to be some connection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Farmingdale gusting to 35, about the same here as well, nasty day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 hours ago, SI Mailman said: 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Humid 62F at 7 am. Reminds me of xmas week weather Its before 7:30 and I have a mail truck full of packages. We sure it's not December 23rd? Nothing says Christmas weather like a warm rainstorm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Nice dump of cold air on the Euro with a coastal storm possibly gathering. Cmc shows the same situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 what a underwhelming storm today..the only thing falling from the sky was leaves so many leaves everywhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Just now, nycwinter said: what a underwhelming storm today..the only thing falling from the sky was leaves so many leaves everywhere.. yeah it sped up too-sun coming out here now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 not bad 60 degrees sunshine a pleasant almost mid november afternoon.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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