qg_omega Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: This isn’t what one would typically see before sustained EPO- periods: That cool pool south of Alaska is very ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: This isn’t what one would typically see before sustained EPO- periods: 100% and like @bluewave said, even if you get a -WPO the +EPO still allows the northern branch to punch into the west coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 100% and like @bluewave said, even if you get a -WPO the +EPO still allows the northern branch to punch into the west coast The latest EPS is a great illustration of this. Back and forth between warm ups and cool downs. But the coldest departures go to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 34 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That cool pool south of Alaska is very ugly A plus EPO, neg PNA regime makes it much more difficult for sustained cold and snow, but how would a plus EPO in combo with Atlantic blocking (neg NAO, AO) look like? Analogues? I would imagine transient and brief cold periods with potential snow amidst a sea of above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: A plus EPO, neg PNA regime makes it much more difficult for sustained cold and snow, but how would a plus EPO in combo with Atlantic blocking (neg NAO, AO) look like? Analogues? I would imagine transient and brief cold periods with potential snow amidst a sea of above normal temps. It would look like the composite below. Warmer than average winter temperatures. So we would need bowling ball type closed lows to occasionally undercut the ridge for near to above normal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would look like the composite below. Warmer than average winter temperatures. So we would need bowling ball type closed lows to occasionally undercut the ridge for near to above normal snowfall. Chris, what are some examples? IIRC, wasn't '96 pretty much ATL-driven? I don't think that's a good analog this year, but it shows that a favorable Atlantic can overcome a craptastic PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 39 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Chris, what are some examples? IIRC, wasn't '96 pretty much ATL-driven? I don't think that's a good analog this year, but it shows that a favorable Atlantic can overcome a craptastic PAC. We had the strong -PNA with the 16-17 La Niña winter. But the EPO was more neutral that year. 95-96 was the most perfect balance of -NAO and -EPO that we ever had from December through March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: We had the strong -PNA with the 16-17 La Niña winter. But the EPO was more neutral that year. 95-96 was the most perfect balance of -NAO and -EPO that we ever had from December through March. 95-96 having that Aleutian ridge more poleward may have helped as well to get more cold air involved? But no doubt, this winter we need all the Atlantic help we can get. If the NAO won’t cooperate it won’t be pretty. The SSTA west of Canada argues for a big time -PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 95-96 having that Aleutian ridge more poleward may have helped as well to get more cold air involved? But no doubt, this winter we need all the Atlantic help we can get. If the NAO won’t cooperate it won’t be pretty. The SSTA west of Canada argues for a big time -PNA. This was the first time we had an October PDO drop below -3.00 since 1955. But that’s what happens with record 940 mb lows off the PAC NW Coast. It also pumped the record south based -NAO in October. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Oct 2021 -3.06 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the first time we had an October PDO drop below -3.00 since 1955. But that’s what happens with record 940 mb lows off the PAC NW Coast. It also pumped the record south based -NAO in October. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Oct 2021 -3.06 Certainly explains the cold SSTA anomalies we see there now. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Certainly explains the cold SSTA anomalies we see there now. Thanks! This may have been one of the greatest August to November SST drops south of Alaska on record. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. December is our best bet. Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year. There might still be periods of Atlantic blocking to provide snowfall opportunities. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: There might still be periods of Atlantic blocking to provide snowfall opportunities. Yeah, we would probably need winter version of what happened in late October. Getting one of the Pacific Jet lows to undercut the south based Atlantic Block. While the airmass would probably be marginal, we were able to do it during the 16-17 La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon. it will be a bit cooler than today. Rain will arrive during the evening or overnight hours and continue into Friday. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Temperatures will also rebound on Friday. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week. Uncertainty about the overall temperature anomaly for the second half of November has increased. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 10 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +18.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.778 today. On November 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.964 (RMM). The November 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.112 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Models look better than they did this morning going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 GFS is showing snow, this time near the 21st. I mentioned that AccuWeather had Nov. 20 penciled in as a possible first 32* reading in the City, but gave it up for Dec. 07. This snow is not going to be on the ground and measurable, I am confident. Maybe it will be seen, but not felt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 DT (WxRisk) says if your looking for cold air in the second half of November keep looking. Nothing overly cold other then maybe seasonal for the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 19 hours ago, kat5hurricane said: Still haven't gone to long sleeves yet. Walked outside for lunch yesterday with no jacket or pullover which is nice for the second week of November but odd at the same time. In any event, the weather this week has been glorious. Today seems to be another good one. I wonder if everyone remembers last year at this time we had 5 straight days of 70+ and even upper 70s (November 8-12) it was a +5 November which is amazing. The only difference was we had a freeze on Halloween last year, so we had an Indian Summer in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 14 hours ago, bluewave said: We had the strong -PNA with the 16-17 La Niña winter. But the EPO was more neutral that year. 95-96 was the most perfect balance of -NAO and -EPO that we ever had from December through March. One can argue 95-96 was perfect November through April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 18 hours ago, bluewave said: There seems to be an inverse correlation between the La Niña strength and our winter weather since 2010. The stronger coupled La Ninas in a two year sequence actually had more snow. But before 2010, it was usually the weaker of the La Ninas which were snowier. Coupled La Niña ONI and NYC snowfall Stronger of two years bolded 17-18….-1.0…..40.9” 16-17…..-0.7….30.2” 11-12…..-1.1……7.4” 10-11…..-1.6…..61.9” 08-09….-0.8….27.6” 07-08….-1.6…..12.4” 05-06…..-0.9…40.0” 00-01……-0.7….35.0” 99-00……-1.7….16.3” whats the least snowiest? neutral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) says if your looking for cold air in the second half of November keep looking. Nothing overly cold other then maybe seasonal for the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see. Been saying this since the end of October. I didn’t buy any of the cold November hype. I saw and still see November being another above normal month. A +2F for the month overall would not surprise me. The signs were all there at the end of October that this was going to happen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase this afternoon and rain will arrive during the evening or overnight hours. That rain could fall heavily at times and it will continue into Friday. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall is likely. It will be cooler than recent days. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 66° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.6°; 15-Year: 55.6° Newark: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.5° Tomorrow will be warmer, but it will turn noticeably cooler this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Been saying this since the end of October. I didn’t buy any of the cold November hype. I saw and still see November being another above normal month. A +2F for the month overall would not surprise me. The signs were all there at the end of October that this was going to happen No one cares about a cold November, we didn't have one last year either dude. November is a pretty meaningless month for cold and snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) says if your looking for cold air in the second half of November keep looking. Nothing overly cold other then maybe seasonal for the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see. Plenty of seasonal temps (which is cold) forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Been saying this since the end of October. I didn’t buy any of the cold November hype. I saw and still see November being another above normal month. A +2F for the month overall would not surprise me. The signs were all there at the end of October that this was going to happen Hang on. Still in negative territory through mid month. Second half looks very seasonal. Let’s not make Nov sound like an impending torch month. By all indications, it wont be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 34F this morning at 630 Light frost on some surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Hang on. Still in negative territory through mid month. Second half looks very seasonal. Let’s not make Nov sound like an impending torch month. By all indications, it wont be. I’m not calling for a torch. A +2 month is not a torch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(46/56), or +3. Reached 66 here yesterday. Today: 57-61 late, wind e. to se., p. cloudy, start tomorrow AM at 60. Rain about 1"--- Fri-Sun. AM, windy. Snow gone again on the GFS. T's ranging 35-60 over the next 15 days with neither BN or AN favored, it seems. 49*(50%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 9am. 60* at Noon. 62* at 1pm. Quickly fell back to 60* and stayed there past sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 47 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Hang on. Still in negative territory through mid month. Second half looks very seasonal. Let’s not make Nov sound like an impending torch month. By all indications, it wont be. I think you guys are forgetting last November, now that was a torch. And it was quite nice. November weather has zero connection to the winter and if anything a mild November more often leads to a snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 A -1 to +1 first 10 days of November feels much colder due to the record warmth in September and October. EWR….+0.6 NYC…..-1.1 LGA….+0.8 JFK….+0.3 ISP…..-0.6 BDR….-0.6 HPN….-1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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