November 2021

[donsutherland1]

Under abundant sunshine, the mercury surged into the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 69°
Baltimore: 75°
Boston: 70°
Bridgeport: 64°
Hartford: 70°
Islip: 70°
New York City: 68°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 71°
Portland: 66°
Providence: 71°
Washington, DC: 73°

Newark reached 70° for the 176th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

With the exception of Thursday, the unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain Thursday night into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 9 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.143 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.184 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

 

[Tekken_Guy]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under abundant sunshine, the mercury surged into the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 69°
Baltimore: 75°
Boston: 70°
Bridgeport: 64°
Hartford: 70°
Islip: 70°
New York City: 68°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 71°
Portland: 66°
Providence: 71°
Washington, DC: 73°

Newark reached 70° for the 176th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

With the exception of Thursday, the unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain Thursday night into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 9 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.143 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.184 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

 

What's happening on Thursday that's going to keep the region from being above normal?

[LoboLeader1]

High of 67 here, currently 53.

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

What's happening on Thursday that's going to keep the region from being above normal?

A weak cold front will move across the region tomorrow. Behind it, Thursday will turn somewhat cooler.

[Tekken_Guy]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A weak cold front will move across the region tomorrow. Behind it, Thursday will turn somewhat cooler.

And why will Friday be warmer?

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

And why will Friday be warmer?

Another cold front will be crossing the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, warmer air will push northward. As a result, the temperature will hold nearly steady Thursday night and could begin to rise before sunrise.

[psv88]

69 today

[CIK62]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

first and last freeze dates in Central Park...

season....first.freeze....last.freeze..

1876-77.......10/15.......4/08

1877-78.......11/07.......3/26

1878-79.......11/05.......4/06

1879-80.......10/25.......4/12

1880-81.......11/18.......4/07

1881-82.......11/22.......4/12

1882-83.......11/03.......4/03

1883-84.......11/12.......4/06

1884-85.......11/19.......4/14

1885-86.......11/01.......4/04

1886-87.......11/07.......4/19

1887-88.......10/30.......4/25

1888-89.......11/17.......3/31

1889-90.......10/24.......4/19

1890-91.......11/21.......5/06

1891-92.......11/04.......4/25

1892-93.......11/11.......3/30

1893-94.......11/15.......4/09

1894-95.......11/07.......4/05

1895-96.......11/12.......4/08

1896-97.......11/23.......4/20

1897-98.......11/18.......4/07

1898-99.......11/24.......4/06

1899-00.......11/12.......4/11

1900-01.......11/15.......3/31

1901-02.......11/10.......3/20

1902-03.......12/05.......4/05

1903-04.......11/07.......4/20

1904-05.......10/31.......3/15

1905-06.......11/14.......4/01

1906-07.......11/29.......4/03

1907-08.......12/03.......4/05

1908-09.......11/04.......4/11

1909-10.......11/30.......3/18

1910-11.......11/20.......4/03

1911-12.......11/03.......4/04

1912-13.......11/03.......3/28

1913-14.......11/11.......4/13

1914-15.......11/10.......4/04

1915-16.......11/18.......4/09

1916-17.......11/15.......4/10

1917-18.......10/31.......4/12

1918-19.......11/24.......4/26

1919-20.......11/14.......4/11

1920-21.......11/12.......4/11

1921-22.......11/06.......4/21

1922-23.......11/21.......4/14

1923-24.......11/09.......4/03

1924-25.......11/16.......4/21

1925-26.......10/29.......4/20

1926-27.......11/04.......3/28

1927-28.......11/07.......4/16

1928-29.......10/30.......3/18

1929-30.......11/22.......4/24

1930-31.......11/05.......3/14

1931-32.......11/07.......4/13

1932-33.......11/20.......3/25

1933-34.......10/26.......3/29

1934-35.......11/14.......4/16

1935-36.......11/23.......4/08

1936-37.......10/26.......3/31

1937-38.......11/21.......4/07

1938-39.......11/24.......4/13

1939-40.......11/13.......4/15

1940-41.......10/19.......3/31

1941-42.......11/25.......2/28

1942-43.......11/13.......4/16

1943-44.......11/15.......4/06

1944-45.......11/23.......3/11

1945-46.......11/21.......3/12

1946-47.......11/23.......3/31

1947-48.......11/19.......4/04

1948-49.......12/11.......3/20

1949-50.......11/22.......4/14

1950-51.......11/16.......3/27

1951-52.......11/03.......3/17

1952-53.......11/29.......3/11

1953-54.......11/06.......4/04

1954-55.......11/10.......3/29

1955-56.......11/19.......3/28

1956-57.......11/10.......3/25

1957-58.......11/11.......4/09

1958-59.......11/28.......3/29

1959-60.......11/17.......3/27

1960-61.......11/07.......3/21

1961-62.......11/10.......3/09

1962-63.......11/07.......3/23

1963-64.......12/01.......4/05

1964-65.......11/21.......4/01

1965-66.......10/29.......3/29

1966-67.......11/04.......4/12

1967-68.......11/08.......4/06

1968-69.......11/21.......4/01

1969-70.......10/23.......4/11

1970-71.......11/23.......3/27

1971-72.......11/08.......4/09

1972-73.......10/20.......3/21

1973-74.......11/10.......4/10

1974-75.......10/19.......4/10

1975-76.......10/31.......4/12

1976-77.......10/27.......4/10

1977-78.......11/14.......4/03

1978-79.......11/25.......4/08

1979-80.......11/30.......4/17

1980-81.......11/16.......3/21

1981-82.......11/25.......4/08

1982-83.......11/13.......3/30

1983-84.......11/13.......3/18

1984-85.......11/19.......4/10

1985-86.......12/02.......3/22

1986-87.......11/13.......4/01

1987-88.......11/11.......3/23

1988-89.......10/31.......3/22

1989-90.......11/18.......3/28

1990-91.......11/09.......4/13

1991-92.......11/26.......4/13

1992-93.......11/08.......3/20

1993-94.......11/21.......3/19

1994-95.......11/23.......4/06

1995-96.......11/09.......3/29

1996-97.......11/12.......4/10

1997-98.......11/13.......3/23

1998-99.......12/22.......3/16

1999-00.......11/30.......4/09

2000-01.......11/20.......3/28

2001-02.......12/16.......4/07

2002-03.......11/27.......4/08

2003-04.......11/09.......4/06

2004-05.......11/09.......3/16

2005-06.......11/18.......3/22

2006-07.......12/04.......4/09

2007-08.......11/11.......3/30

2008-09.......11/18.......3/24

2009-10.......12/07.......3/27

2010-11.......12/04.......3/29

2011-12.......12/10.......3/27

2012-13.......11/06.......3/23

2013-14.......11/12.......4/16

2014-15.......11/18.......4/01

2015-16.......11/24.......4/10

2016-17.......12/09.......3/23

2017-18.......11/10........4/09

2018-19.......11/14........3/18

2019-20.......11/08.......3/01

2020-21.......10/31.......4/03

AccuWeather is using Dec. 07 for this winter.     It had Nov. 20 for a while.    

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under abundant sunshine, the mercury surged into the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 69°
Baltimore: 75°
Boston: 70°
Bridgeport: 64°
Hartford: 70°
Islip: 70°
New York City: 68°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 71°
Portland: 66°
Providence: 71°
Washington, DC: 73°

Newark reached 70° for the 176th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

With the exception of Thursday, the unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain Thursday night into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 9 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.143 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.184 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

 

JFK and LGA? also got one for MPO, Don?

[dmillz25]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK and LGA? also got one for MPO, Don?

JFK just missed at 69 and LGA hit 72

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK and LGA? also got one for MPO, Don?

JFK 69

LGA 72

MPO 63

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 68°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8°

It will turn noticeably cooler this weekend.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

JFK just missed at 69 and LGA hit 72

One more chance to hit 70 today!

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 68°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8°

It will turn noticeably cooler this weekend.

Maybe we have a chance to hit 70 one more time, today.

Think this is the last one for the year, Don?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  52degs.(47/58), or +4.

Reached 71 here yesterday. 

Today: 64-68, wind nw. to n.-breezy, m. sunny by Noon.     Rain on Fri/Sat down to 0.5"-1.0".

57*(65%RH) here at 6am.     60* at 9am.      62* at Noon.       Reached 66* at 3pm and held there w/o going any higher.

 

[nyrangers1022]

Going to work in short sleeves.  Love it

[bluewave]

It’s been tough to get the core of the cold into New England this year. The most recent cool down was focused to our south. Looks like the coming  cool down from the weekend into next week will do the same. 
 

November so far

 

Forecast

 

 

Last 12 month period warmest on record in Maine

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been tough to get the core of the cold into New England this year. The most recent cool down was focused to our south. Looks like the coming  cool down from the weekend into next week will do the same. 
 

November so far

 

Forecast

 

 

Last 12 month period warmest on record in Maine

 

 

 

 

 

Yep. And once again, we are dealing with the models pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range, only to loose it as we move closer in time. This has been a reoccurring theme for a few years now. I’ve also been saying to view any big +PNA spikes with extreme skepticism given the coupled strengthening Niña and the very strong -PDO/-PMM, any +PNA is not going to have staying power 

 

[the_other_guy]

49F at 8 am

Considering it’s the middle of November look at the leaves on the trees in my yard

I cut the grass yesterday

Unreal

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe we have a chance to hit 70 one more time, today.

Think this is the last one for the year, Don?

 

I am hesitant to think this could be the last of the year. There’s still opportunity for more unseasonable warmth before the year ends. In fact, some of the guidance has dramatically backed off the idea of a cold second half of November. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. And once again, we are dealing with the models pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range, only to loose it as we move closer in time. This has been a reoccurring theme for a few years now. I’ve also been saying to view any big +PNA spikes with extreme skepticism given the coupled strengthening Niña and the very strong -PDO/-PMM, any +PNA is not going to have staying power 

 

The la nina isn't strengthening 

[SACRUS]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I am hesitant to think this could be the last of the year. There’s still opportunity for more unseasonable warmth before the year ends. In fact, some of the guidance has dramatically backed off the idea of a cold second half of November. 

Don, I tend to agree and think the window may be as soon as Nov 17 - 19 on a sw flow ahead or between the next cool down.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. And once again, we are dealing with the models pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range, only to loose it as we move closer in time. This has been a reoccurring theme for a few years now. I’ve also been saying to view any big +PNA spikes with extreme skepticism given the coupled strengthening Niña and the very strong -PDO/-PMM, any +PNA is not going to have staying power 

 

This isn’t what one would typically see before sustained EPO- periods:

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Going to work in short sleeves.  Love it

Still haven't gone to long sleeves yet. Walked outside for lunch yesterday with no jacket or pullover which is nice for the second week of November but odd at the same time.

In any event, the weather this week has been glorious. Today seems to be another good one.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. And once again, we are dealing with the models pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range, only to loose it as we move closer in time. This has been a reoccurring theme for a few years now.

I think the culprit with the recent model forecasts was the record early snow and cold in China. That TPV drop into East Asia is pumping the NPAC ridge up further west. So we get a big WPO drop instead of EPO. This gives the La Niña Jet more opportunities to come ashore out West. So we get this back and forth pattern of warm ups and cool downs. To the EPS weeklies credit, they always showed the core of the cold going to our south. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This isn’t what one would typically see before sustained EPO- periods:

If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. 

December is our best bet.

Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year.

[MJO812]

Long range forecasts have been a joke in the last 2 years. Hopefully by early December we will have a clear idea on how this winter will be.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. 

December is our best bet.

Maybe but there many forecasts out there with the 2nd half of winter being better than the 1st half. It also depends on blocking. 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. 

December is our best bet.

Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year.

that cold pool south of AK is cause for concern for sure.  We've also been dry out side of the last week of October....want storms right now even if they're cutters

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The la nina isn't strengthening 

There seems to be an inverse correlation between the La Niña strength and our winter weather since 2010. The stronger coupled La Ninas in a two year sequence actually had more snow. But before 2010, it was usually the weaker of the La Ninas which were snowier.

Coupled La Niña ONI and NYC snowfall

Stronger of two years bolded

17-18….-1.0…..40.9”

16-17…..-0.7….30.2”

 

11-12…..-1.1……7.4”

10-11…..-1.6…..61.9”

 

08-09….-0.8….27.6”

07-08….-1.6…..12.4”

 

05-06…..-0.9…40.0”

 

00-01……-0.7….35.0”

99-00……-1.7….16.3”