MJO812 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked That's not it You always talk about warmth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Tomorrow will be another fair but cool day. Afterward, a warming trend will commence. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 5 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +5.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.636 today. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.687 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.431 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's not it You always talk about warmth Good evening S19. Please do not stop posting your opinion/knowledge. The metro area having continued, reliably frozen events is not likely to be ascribed to by even our most fervent cold season enthusiasts. We are, after all in a long term partnership/love affair with a very warm next door neighbor ocean. Few of us, my self included, want to hear the dissenting opinion. Some times it eases the blow by prefacing with “I may be or hope I’m wrong but” ….. This seeming climate of extremes we are In, may, as Bluewave says, give the first 40” to the Metro area. I’m sure ten days or less later the same area could see temperatures in the 70’s with snow melt flash floods. Please keep giving your take. I prefer to be prepped for disappointment but just, if you could, every so often say I may be or wish I was wrong to ease it a bit. Have a good night and thank you for the opinions you give. As always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Ill be the parent that pleads with feuding siblings here haha It is 44° out, you have a frigid weekend on the way for early November, you’ve had frost all week… Stop fighting about a seasonal outlook that is an educated guess at best. There are plenty of posters with biases on the site. If you like the bias you like them if the bias annoys you they annoy you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Down to 38 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 On 11/2/2021 at 2:58 PM, snowman19 said: If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history Usually a bad sign for winter if we get warm but honestly it’s been rather chilly the last few days we’ll know how the winter goes after Christmas still a long ways out sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 47 to 37 over the last 2 hours here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Down to 34 already, we gonna hard freeze tonight baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked See I knew you would misinterpret that lol. No one said stop posting, all I’m saying is that your opinion leans warm and you know that. You’re quick to post anything that has to do with warmth and no snow in the NYC metro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 26 at FOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 30.9. Going sub 30 tonight. Kill it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Already down to 31F. First 20s of the season coming up will kill everything left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 32 in Holbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 40 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 31 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 Nov 12-14 (next weekend). One or two events, with a high amplitude trough central USA progressing through the eastern USA. No thread yet, since could still degrade to relatively routine 1-2". The pattern to me suggests a warm wet event with potential for either or both (in parts of the forum-especially I95 corridor eastward),damaging wind southerlies or a line of isolated-severe storms later 12th or 13th. SST warmer than normal. There seems to be a second shortwave that reenergizes this high amplitude trough as it crosses the east coast around the 14th. It's possible there will be a northeast USA coastal reflection that could bring a period of colder rain on or about the 14th. The two combined (if indeed they both occur) could deposit spotty 3+" of rain. Routine? Too early for me to discount something that will generate LSR's sometime between the 12th-14th. After that--- sure seems modeled decently for a trough somewhere in the central or eastern USA and a ridge in the west, the last two weeks of the month (ensembles) and CPC week 3-4 issued yesterday. Edit at 639AM: Just saw the 06z/6 GFS OP. If this continues in on the 12z/18z cycles and other model ensemble agreement, will begin a thread sometime this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(49/61), or +6. The 8 days after the above 8 will probably neutralize the current 8. Today: 53-56, wind n , m.sunny. Reached 55 here yesterday. 46*(54%RH) here at 6am. 45* at 7am. 50* at 10:30am. 51* by Noon. 54* by 2pm. 55* at 3:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 28.8 in nw Suffolk. been below freezing since midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 No freeze here. Temp was 33 when I left. Car was 34/35 from home to the LIE, then dropped to 29 from the LIE to Middle Country Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 57° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.3° Newark: 30-Year: 58.4°; 15-Year: 58.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.4°; 15-Year: 59.3° Warmer air will begin to overspread the region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Overnight low of 30 here. Current temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 30.1 in Syosset & 28.1 in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 31 my low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 28.6 was the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Back to back nights in the 20's. Growing season is obviously done. Monday-Wednesday looks stunning, 60's and sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 30F. Despite forecasts I knew we were going for a hard freeze and drained the outdoor shower. Much warmer in Queens and Nassau this morning. Mid 40s by 830 Edit: Suffolk much cooler mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Quite a range in temperatures on Long Island. Recording stations on Weatherlink show temperatures at the Long Island Sound stations and the south shore water locations in the low to mid 40s while the middle of the Island has temps in the 20s to mid 30s. Central Park appears to be the only major city from Boston to D.C. that stayed at 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: 30F. Despite forecasts I knew we were going for a hard freeze and drained the outdoor shower. Much warmer in Queens and Nassau this morning. Mid 40s by 830 Yea it seems the mid 40s are right on the water at both north and south shores, I am still 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Hard freeze here 30 degrees this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now