jm1220 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 I think we got down to 31, surfaces were frosty this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: That is extremely ugly 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That is extremely ugly It could show an ideal pattern and you'd say it was inaccurate. Your warm bias is overplayed. Yes AN is favored obviously but I don't think it'll be another 11/12 or 19/20 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 The Euro seasonal DJF 500mb composite is a blend of the 16-17 and 17-18 La Ninas. The SE Ridge/WAR in the means kept those winters warmer than normal. But the poleward Aleutians ridge across the Arctic to Greenland gave us the -AO and -NAO intervals and above normal snows. Be interesting to see if the SEAS 5 comes close to the actual winter pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal DJF 500mb composite is a blend of the 16-17 and 17-18 La Ninas. The SE Ridge/WAR in the means kept those winters warmer than normal. But the poleward Aleutians ridge across the Arctic to Greenland gave us the -AO and -NAO intervals and above normal snows. Be interesting to see if the SEAS 5 comes close to the actual winter pattern. How was December in those years? I forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 27 once again last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: That is extremely ugly No it isnt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: How was December in those years? I forget. 2017 was cold with a decent amount of snow. 2016 had one small event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No it isnt It is. Here’s another opinion on what it’s showing: “Very mild winter for the US” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No it isnt I couldn’t care less what it shows. Above normal temps coinciding with above normal snowfall is becoming the new norm. Torch away as long as I get my 40+ inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It is. Here’s another opinion on what it’s showing: “Very mild winter for the US” First of all the seasonals are not that accurate. If that was correct it's just an average of 3 months. Predicting snowfall is nearly impossible.You can get 2 snowstorms and get average snow.Anyway it's not ugly and it doesn't show a very mild winter. Maybe your warm bias is seeing it different. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: First of all the seasonals are not that accurate. If that was correct it's just an average of 3 months. Predicting snowfall is nearly impossible.You can get 2 snowstorms and get average snow.Anyway it's not ugly and it doesn't show a very mild winter. Maybe your warm bias is seeing it different. Agree I had close to 40 inches last winter and it wasn't even cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Will have to see what effects this has on the stratosphere and the SPV this winter, but HM just pointed out that we are resembling a volcanic stratosphere in some ways right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Our last colder than average winter was 2014-2015. So we have had 6 warmer than normal winters in a row. Be interesting to see if our new warmer 1991-2020 climate normals make it easer to actually get a DJF below normal average temperature one of these winters. Luckily for the snow fans, we have had above normal snowfall for 4 out of those last 6 seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Oct 2021 composite and NAO-onlypoint/1st point analogs https://ibb.co/zbVkXz8 https://ibb.co/r6PBVwb Dec-Mar https://ibb.co/nf09vff I would do a classic La Nina map for precip (05-06, and 06-07 were both that way, although one was El Nino and one La Nina) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 My memory of last winter is hazy, but I do remember a solid stretch of snow cover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Imagine a cold winter with below average snowfall. That would be the most shocking outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 On 11/4/2021 at 1:31 PM, Tatamy said: My lettuce and parsley are still going strong. Everything else has been frosted out over the past two nights. I had some impatiens in pots that I had placed next to my foundation in order to see if I could keep them going. Last night’s frost got them. I have found that 24 degrees is the cutoff for what parsley will survive down to. I any case my lettuce and parsley are in flats that I can bring in if it gets that cold. After surviving the light frost tuesday and wednesday night, the sensitive plants in my vegetable garden got destroyed by the freeze last night. We got down to 30. End of the growing season for sensitive plants, but more hardy things like lettuce can go on for awhile as you said. Broccoli sometimes goes on until early December here. So I don't really consider the growing season over until we get a very hard freeze that destroys the more hardy plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I couldn’t care less what it shows. Above normal temps coinciding with above normal snowfall is becoming the new norm. Torch away as long as I get my 40+ inches. Doesnt work like that long term. Like saying the house is on fire but Im nice and warm We arent the new Denver. We are in transition to DC or Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 coldest day of the year thus far… We never got above 49F. Deer fencing was a chilly endeavor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: That is extremely ugly When it shows warm you’ll believe it. When it shows cold? You’ll deny it… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Imagine a cold winter with below average snowfall. That would be the most shocking outcome. 85-86 is an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Will have to see what effects this has on the stratosphere and the SPV this winter, but HM just pointed out that we are resembling a volcanic stratosphere in some ways right now: Not to be a dick but that’s exactly why you tend to get called out because of stuff like this. You know what you’re talking about most of the time but you definitely lean to the warm bias. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Nice cold pattern 2nd half of the month on the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 hours ago, psv88 said: My memory of last winter is hazy, but I do remember a solid stretch of snow cover one big snow storm mid Dec, Jan was slightly above average temps with little to no snow, 2/1 to 2/21 was the big snow blitz. March average temps no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 February 23 consecutive days w/ snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Typical La Nina progression but that would change with blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 34 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: 85-86 is an example Yeah, 85-86 that was the last colder winter with below average snowfall. Several of the 1980s winters had patterns that haven’t repeated since. December 1980 was our last below zero Christmas. 1982 featured our last April blizzard with 3 daily consecutive record low temperatures. December 1989 was the last -10 departure December that averaged in the 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: Not to be a dick but that’s exactly why you tend to get called out because of stuff like this. You know what you’re talking about most of the time but you definitely lean to the warm bias. I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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