November 2021

[Allsnow]

Growing season has officially ended in all of Mt Hollys area outside of southeast NJ. 

[winterwx21]

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Growing season has officially ended in all of Mt Hollys area outside of southeast NJ. 

Funny because I was just outside checking, and my vegetable plants are still in decent shape. Hardly any damage to the tomato, pepper, eggplant and pole lima bean plants. Just a tiny bit. Must've been just a very light brief frost here. I know we have frost/freeze threats again tonight and tomorrow night though, so maybe they won't be able to make it through this stretch.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Funny because I was just outside checking, and my vegetable plants are still in decent shape. Hardly any damage to the tomato, pepper, eggplant and pole lima bean plants. Just a tiny bit. Must've been just a very light brief frost here. I know we have frost/freeze threats again tonight and tomorrow night though, so maybe they won't be able to make it through this stretch.

Yeah I would think an hour or two at 30-31 wouldn't do too much damage but technically the growing season would still end 

[winterwx21]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I would think an hour or two at 30-31 wouldn't do too much damage but technically the growing season would still end 

Yeah, and I don't think the temp even got below freezing right where I am. When I went to bed at 1am, I looked at weather stations around the area and the temps mostly ranged from 33 to 37. I was at 37 here. Obviously the ones that were down to 33 already at 1am went below freezing, but the ones that were still 37 might not have reached freezing. It probably got down to about 33 here which would explain why my plants were barely touched. It'll be interesting to see if they can survive again tonight and tomorrow night. It might be a little bit colder.

 

And of course when we talk growing season, we're talking about the more sensitive plants. I have more hardy things out there like lettuce, broccoli and raspberries. It takes a hard freeze to damage those plants. They will likely continue for a few more weeks. Sometimes they go into very late November.

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah, and I don't think the temp even got below freezing right where I am. When I went to bed at 1am, I looked at weather stations around the area and the temps mostly ranged from 33 to 37. I was at 37 here. Obviously the ones that were down to 33 already at 1am went below freezing, but the ones that were still 37 might not have reached freezing. It probably got down to about 33 here which would explain why my plants were barely touched. It'll be interesting to see if they can survive again tonight and tomorrow night. It might be a little bit colder.

 

And of course when we talk growing season, we're talking about the more sensitive plants. I have more hardy things out there like lettuce, broccoli and raspberries. It takes a hard freeze to damage those plants. They will likely continue for a few more weeks. Sometimes they go into very late November.

My lettuce and parsley are still going strong.  Everything else has been frosted out over the past two nights.  I had some impatiens in pots that I had placed next to my foundation in order to see if I could keep them going.  Last night’s frost got them.  I have found that 24 degrees is the cutoff for what parsley will survive down to.  I any case my lettuce and parsley are in flats that I can bring in if it gets that cold.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Funny because I was just outside checking, and my vegetable plants are still in decent shape. Hardly any damage to the tomato, pepper, eggplant and pole lima bean plants. Just a tiny bit. Must've been just a very light brief frost here. I know we have frost/freeze threats again tonight and tomorrow night though, so maybe they won't be able to make it through this stretch.

Because hitting 32° for an hour doesn’t really end the growing season… Even if it does on paper.

You really need a hard freeze or extended freeze.

[snowman19]

@bluewave Have you seen the weeklies yet? Just saw on Twitter that they supposedly are still insisting on a +PNA spike just after mid-month but then it starts to collapse come early December. They didn’t provide any maps so I couldn’t tell if the description was accurate 

[wdrag]

Despite model waffling for for 11/13-14... event on. Whether it's extra ordinary is yet tbd, but rain is coming...probably a general inch, maybe e 3+ in a couple of spots.  GEFS looks more highly amplified via the 12z/4 ensembles than the EPS, which is decently amplified but further west and then washes out as other short waves follow.  NAEFS had rain over a 48 hour period (stalled frontal boundary?).

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave Have you seen the weeklies yet? Just saw on Twitter that they supposedly are still insisting on a +PNA spike just after mid-month but then it starts to collapse come early December. They didn’t provide any maps so I couldn’t tell if the description was accurate 

Yeah, it still has the +PNA spike. But the SPV is a little stronger this run. So the Atlantic blocking later in November is extending north from east of New England. The last run with the weaker SPV had more Greenland blocking. But these SPV forecast beyond 10 days often change from run to run. So it may very well have another solution next week. 

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it still has the +PNA spike. But the SPV is a little stronger this run. So the Atlantic blocking later in November is extending north from east of New England. The last run with the weaker SPV had more Greenland blocking. But these SPV forecast beyond 10 days often change from run to run. So it may very well have another solution next week. 

Thank you. Yea, the SPV is the big wild card….the GEFS keeps it strong into early December, the Euro has it weaker but not as weak as last week like you said. Interested to see what actually happens…think we’ll have a better idea by mid month. One thing is certain, I think MJO phases 4-6 are going to be dominant this winter

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thank you. Yea, the SPV is the big wild card….the GEFS keeps it strong into early December, the Euro has it weaker but not as weak as last week like you said. Interested to see what actually happens…think we’ll have a better idea by mid month. One thing is certain, I think MJO phases 4-6 are going to be dominant this winter

Torch city if that's the case

[donsutherland1]

An unseasonably cool air mass remains in place. As a result, temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Dry weather will also persist.

A warming trend will commence on Sunday. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframew where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.109 today.

On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.474 (RMM).

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Torch city if that's the case

Not initially, those MJO phases are “classic” Niña phases, which in early winter doesn’t really support torch, but when you get into mid and late winter they do, especially in February when the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent. Which is why Nina’s are stereotyped as “front end loaded” winters 

[psv88]

35 already 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not initially, those MJO phases are “classic” Niña phases, which in early winter doesn’t really support torch, but when you get into mid and late winter they do, especially in February when the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent. Which is why Nina’s are stereotyped as “front end loaded” winters 

you also have some back loaded la ninas as well as la ninas which are front and back end loaded and torch in the middle.  The nao matters a lot more here.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I would think an hour or two at 30-31 wouldn't do too much damage but technically the growing season would still end 

what does it take to kill rag weed and end the allergy and bug season?

 

[dmillz25]

Down to 38 here in bed stuy

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 54°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 59.7°

Warmer weather will develop on Sunday and continue into next week.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(48/60), or +4.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today: 50-53, wind n., m.sunny.     No rain till the 14th.

43*(53%RH) here at 6am.      46* at 9am.      49* at Noon.    50* at 12:30pm.       Reached 55* about 4:30pm.

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the models are going for a ridge over Western North America mid-November due to the MJO 5 La Niña standing wave. November is one of those months that convection near the Maritime Continent can force a ridge in that area. But it’s really uncertain how strong or long such a pattern would last. For later November into December, the blocking will probably determined by the strength of the SPV. And we know how uncertain these model SPV forecasts can be beyond the 6-10 day period. Our weather patterns from last November through the winter were very SPV driven. The very strong SPV in November lead to the record warmth. Then the SPV weakening was associated with the mid-December snowstorm. This was followed by record warmth on Christmas with the SPV rebound. Our best stretch of winter was in February following the major SSW.

 

Not that it matters because I’ve yet to see it actually work, but it looks like Judah’s beloved SAI will be below normal this year, HM illustrates why. Anyway, the SPV strengthening has begun. We need to follow that very closely, definitely agree with you that it will determine December’s fate. Big question, does it stop and weaken at month’s end or does it remain strong? All we can do is monitor it in real time 

 

[lee59]

A little milder this morning, earlier low of 32.5 now up to 36. The opposite of the past 2 mornings when it was getting colder until about 7:30.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not that it matters because I’ve yet to see it actually work, but it looks like Judah’s beloved SAI will be below normal this year, HM illustrates why. Anyway, the SPV strengthening has begun. We need to follow that very closely, definitely agree with you that it will determine December’s fate. Big question, does it stop and weaken at month’s end or does it rem

The October NAO was the 2nd most negative on record for the month. But it was a continuation of the south based blocking like we saw last winter. Notice how much different this October was from the other 4 years below -2. The previous years were El Niño’s rather than the La Niña this year. So it will be interesting to see how things go as we head into December. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Top 5 lowest October NAO monthly averages

-2.30….1968

-2.29…..2021

-2.28…..2002

-2.24…..2006

-2.06…..2012

 

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The October NAO was the 2nd most negative on record for the month. But it was a continuation of the south based blocking like we saw last winter. Notice how much different this October was from the other 4 years below -2. The previous years were El Niño’s rather than the La Niña this year. So it will be interesting to see how things go as we head into December. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Top 5 lowest October NAO monthly averages

-2.30….1968

-2.29…..2021

-2.28…..2002

-2.24…..2006

-2.06…..2012

 

the last time a none el nino year that had a strongly neg nao and the following winter was bad for snow lovers in the NYC area ws 1988...

1993...53.4" of snow fell the following winter regardless of what the nao was...very cold winter...

2003...42.0" of snow fell...very cold winter...

2005...40.0" of snow fell...fast start in December fizzled out until Feb and the largest snowfall on record at the time...mild winter on average...

2010...61.9" of snow Fell...20" and 19" storms...cold winter on average...

2012...26.1" of snow fell...early November son of Sandy storm...Feb and March had above average snowfall...mild on average...

2013...57.4" of snow fell...cold winter...

2020...38.6" of snow fell...mild winter on average but two big storms...

some earlier years on the list were 1960 and 1966...two 50" seasons...the six years from 1970-1988 were not snowy but four were quite cold...1988 was the only year that was mild and snowless...four were cold but snow was below average...

[MJO812]

39 here in Brooklyn 

[uofmiami]

32.9 only in Syosset, some wind kept temp from falling further than yesterday. Muttontown dropped to 28.7, second freeze in a row. 

[the_other_guy]

33F this morning.

 

Moderate frost on cold surfaces only

[psv88]

31.7 this morning, tonight we hard freeze

[Tatamy]

Bottomed out at 26 out here.

[IrishRob17]

25 for the low, 29 now, been below freezing for close to 12 hours now, I don't know if I should be impressed by that but with the way this fall has been I am impressed.  

[thunderbolt]