chuckster2012 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Hoping for the last wave down here but looks like it's going just to my South...Grrr. ....Jennings county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 GFS is a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Strung out seems like the call on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Strung out seems like the call on this one Decade-long trends die hard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 Strung out seems like the call on this oneAgree. Trend this winter is for a the last wave coming down the backside of the trough to try and dig into the west, and it gets left behind a bit. That is where the GFS went that run.Even the Euro solution, albeit snowy, is also strung out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 ICON has loved Chi town over and over these past couple of runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 A strong out POS would be money for many of us around here. #desperateforsnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Wait....Someone is posting on the 18Z GFS run on an event 5 days away, and we've already established trends 4 days into winter when we've yet to have a legit event? Hello, my old friend I've come to talk with you again........ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Thursday looks like could be another 2-3” for a lot of the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 hours ago, Frog Town said: A strong out POS would be money for many of us around here. #desperateforsnow Don't you remember January 30-31st. All kinds of posts how/why that would be trash. Then BAM warnings are flying up left and right. Reading this place made it sound like nothing was happening. It's laughably subdued to the extreme here. Not in a good way if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Fwiw 06z GFS looks a lot better again than 00z. Maybe at some point things can start trending up again in a GHD II fashion; not to compare this event to that one by any means 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 10 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Don't you remember January 30-31st. All kinds of posts how/why that would be trash. Then BAM warnings are flying up left and right. Reading this place made it sound like nothing was happening. It's laughably subdued to the extreme here. Not in a good way if you ask me. Jaded storm complex. In the DSM-5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The GFS has now shifted the New Year's storm south, mostly in Missouri and Illinois. The southeast trend needs to stop or I'll end up with nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS has now shifted the New Year's storm south, mostly in Missouri and Illinois. The southeast trend needs to stop or I'll end up with nothing. Plenty of time with this one, in both strength and location. I wouldn't worry yet about 1 model run. The solution is still fuzzy at best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 10 hours ago, Spartman said: Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 ^ So you can call him Dr. Modelhugger same as about 80% of the non pro board members here including myself. Twittersphere rules. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Plenty of time with this one, in both strength and location. I wouldn't worry yet about 1 model run. The solution is still fuzzy at best Plenty of time, yes. However, there is a clear southeast trend on all models. The new Canadian has also shifted the heavy snow to my southeast... as did the 06z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The "4 main regimes" part is interesting to me tho. If you can fit 100 years or so worth of data into these buckets and try to then analyse it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Plenty of time, yes. However, there is a clear southeast trend on all models. The new Canadian has also shifted the heavy snow to my southeast... as did the 06z Euro. True. But there also may not be much of a storm left to track either. Still too far out to hang hat on any solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Plenty of time, yes. However, there is a clear southeast trend on all models. The new Canadian has also shifted the heavy snow to my southeast... as did the 06z Euro. South + Strung out has always been the play. Someday we will get a nice wound up snowstorm, someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 South + Strung out has always been the play. Someday we will get a nice wound up snowstorm, someday. Trend the past few runs has actually been less strung out.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Some lake enhancement showing on some runs now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: Some lake enhancement showing on some runs now There should be with a lake temp still in the 40s and any airmass that is even remotely chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I don't get why everyone's tweaking right now. Even the strung out runs were good by this year's standards and we're backing away from that. Look at the CMC and tell me you wouldn't be satisfied with something like that. There's still time to work our way back a little too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I don't get why everyone's tweaking right now. Even the strung out runs were good by this year's standards and we're backing away from that. Look at the CMC and tell me you wouldn't be satisfied with something like that. There's still time to work our way back a little too. It's the nature of snow weenies on a weatherboard lol. Let the good times commence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I don't get why everyone's tweaking right now. Even the strung out runs were good by this year's standards and we're backing away from that. Look at the CMC and tell me you wouldn't be satisfied with something like that. There's still time to work our way back a little too. your on a weather forum with a bunch of snow what do you think you're going to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I don't get why everyone's tweaking right now. Even the strung out runs were good by this year's standards and we're backing away from that. Look at the CMC and tell me you wouldn't be satisfied with something like that. There's still time to work our way back a little too. Agreed.. it's also the CMC tho :). But sounds like that is a preferred blend of what GFS and Euro show, so wise to go with it in this case I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Plenty of time, yes. However, there is a clear southeast trend on all models. The new Canadian has also shifted the heavy snow to my southeast... as did the 06z Euro. You said it yourself. Time for everyone to your east to cash in a bit. You Iowa folk have had some great winters the past few years. Throw us a bone!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 FWIW for the 12/10 storm, models had a big north push up to nowcast time and the heaviest band of snow ended up a few counties north of forecasted 24hrs earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now