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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Better take your screen shots now while the big 4 have it, before it fades like every other big day 7 potential so far.


.

This is a dumb question even by my standards, but what is the fourth of the big four? Euro, GFS, CMC are no brainers but I'm blanking on the last one for some reason

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Jumping back in after a long hiatus...

As long as the wave is not much more amped on Tuesday like the GEM/RGEM, I think ORD finally breaks the epic measurable snow drought (Edit: Getting 0.1" isn't a high bar to clear, right?? LOL). Support is there for a burst of heavy snow before the changeover to rain (see LOT AM Long Term AFD).

Similar set-up to 12/29-30/20 with much milder antecedent air mass, but importantly, still very dry, leaving room for strong evaporative cooling before WAA overwhelms.

Re. next weekend system, it was certainly eye catching to see such good op model agreement so far out. As you'd expect, tons of ensemble spread but still a good signal at this lead time for a system to affect the region.

Belated Merry Christmas to everyone.





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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Jumping back in after a long hiatus...

As long as the wave is not much more amped on Tuesday like the GEM/RGEM, I think ORD finally breaks the epic measurable snow drought. Support is there for a burst of heavy snow before the changeover to rain (see LOT AM Long Term AFD).

Similar set-up to 12/29-30/20 with much milder antecedent air mass, but importantly, still very dry, leaving room for strong evaporative cooling before WAA overwhelms.

Re. next weekend system, it was certainly eye catching to see such good op model agreement so far out. As you'd expect, tons of ensemble spread but still a good signal at this lead time for a system to affect the region.

Belated Merry Christmas to everyone.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Nice having you back. Merry Christmas 

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Jumping back in after a long hiatus...

As long as the wave is not much more amped on Tuesday like the GEM/RGEM, I think ORD finally breaks the epic measurable snow drought. Support is there for a burst of heavy snow before the changeover to rain (see LOT AM Long Term AFD).

Similar set-up to 12/29-30/20 with much milder antecedent air mass, but importantly, still very dry, leaving room for strong evaporative cooling before WAA overwhelms.

Re. next weekend system, it was certainly eye catching to see such good op model agreement so far out. As you'd expect, tons of ensemble spread but still a good signal at this lead time for a system to affect the region.

Belated Merry Christmas to everyone.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

good to hear from you RC. As always, love the pro input.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:


Re. next weekend system, it was certainly eye catching to see such good op model agreement so far out. As you'd expect, tons of ensemble spread but still a good signal at this lead time for a system to affect the region.
 

Getting excited while the models slowly come into better agreement for a sig hit, only to watch it devolve into suppressed garbage 24 hours out? 

image.gif.094525427e85d33423dd337d0106f2e7.gif

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Getting excited while the models slowly come into better agreement for a sig hit, only to watch it devolve into suppressed garbage 24 hours out? 

image.gif.094525427e85d33423dd337d0106f2e7.gif

Having it fall apart 24 hours before would be a treat!  We haven't even had something to track within  5 days.  

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Given the setup, it’ll probably jump around a ton well before that.


.

Excellent point in fact the 12z GFS still has the storm but it has a gone from a snowstorm (0z) to a rainmaker 12z. But good thing is a still has a decent storm in that time frame giving us something to track at least for now.

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Just now, ILSNOW said:

Excellent point in fact the 12z GFS still has the storm but it has a good from a snowstorm (0z) to a rainmaker 12z. But good thing is a still has a decent storm in that time frame giving us something to track at least for now.

Sweet. More Rain 

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro continues leading the way with minor snowfall accumulation around here on Tuesday. Most EPS also show the same.

Almost everything else has little to nothing. So it’s Euro vs all at this point.

When it's one model vs all others, I'm betting on the others.  I expect to see flakes, but not much accumulation here.  The Euro's 4" in CR looks like nonsense.

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