Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible.  Even Chicago would see something from this.  The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

[ILSNOW]

I get what your saying and would love for it to be correct  but this is yesterdays 12z GFS. Cyclone lost 20 inches in 24 hours.

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible.  Even Chicago would see something from this.  The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

 

ugh, the gfs was a nightmare for those of us south of i80.   Back to back rainstorms with postfrontal flurries in between.    Saving grace is it's the gfs longrange OP.    Canadian is more 'rainy' looking with it's threats inside 240 hrs.

Either way I'm getting a sinking feeling about January.    MJO stuck in 7, pna stuck negative, ao and nao heading back up.    Every threat and significant cold shot in the longterm either pushes back or becomes muted.   It seems winter cant get sustained in the east as troughs move in and out and the SER keeps fighting back.

Last year we had a sucky January and a flip in Feb.   This year just has that 11'-12' stank to it.  I remember January was boring as hell and pretty much every met, (except for Don S.), was touting a flip to cold that kept getting pushed back and eventually never came.   If this January is a yawner I think there's a greater chance of a Feb/March warm up vs. a flip to colder.   Nothing meterological....just a pessimistic feeling.   

oh, and Merry Christmas!    

[DaveNay]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible.  Even Chicago would see something from this.  The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

I'd say that has about the same odds as Nagy keeping his job.

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

ugh, the gfs was a nightmare for those of us south of i80.   Back to back rainstorms with postfrontal flurries in between.    Saving grace is it's the gfs longrange OP.    Canadian is more 'rainy' looking with it's threats inside 240 hrs.

Either way I'm getting a sinking feeling about January.    MJO stuck in 7, pna stuck negative, ao and nao heading back up.    Every threat and significant cold shot in the longterm either pushes back or becomes muted.   It seems winter cant get sustained in the east as troughs move in and out and the SER keeps fighting back.

Last year we had a sucky January and a flip in Feb.   This year just has that 11'-12' stank to it.  I remember January was boring as hell and pretty much every met, (except for Don S.), was touting a flip to cold that kept getting pushed back and eventually never came.   If this January is a yawner I think there's a greater chance of a Feb/March warm up vs. a flip to colder.   Nothing meterological....just a pessimistic feeling.   

oh, and Merry Christmas!    

Not to mention a chance of 21-22 to end up as the next Winter with single-digit snowfall totals by March.

[Weather Mike]

1 hour ago, DaveNay said:

I'd say that has about the same odds as Nagy keeping his job.

Any maps or ideas on the system that appears on the GFS and Euro around Jan 1-2nd? Looks good on some runs not all. Something to watch at least. 

[sbnwx85]

31 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Not to mention a chance of 21-22 to end up as the next Winter with single-digit snowfall totals by March.

We'll get a big dog in April. 

[RogueWaves]

ZZZZZZZZ

[Snowstorms]

Picked up 2.3" last night. 

[dmc76]

32 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Picked up 2.3" last night. 

wow. that's major this winter

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, dmc76 said:

wow. that's major this winter

After getting snowfalls of 4.1" and 2.0" In November my largest december snowfall is 0.4". That should change in January. I'll say it again, I'm loving the look of the pattern for our area.

[dmc76]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

After getting snowfalls of 4.1" and 2.0" In November my largest december snowfall is 0.4". That should change in January. I'll say it again, I'm loving the look of the pattern for our area.

Cannot stay like this forever 

[RogueWaves]

On 12/23/2021 at 3:21 PM, sbnwx85 said:

We'll get a big dog in April. 

Or more likely, just a cold-ass rainer and 10 days of -20+ departures in CAD following. Can't wait personally.

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Cannot stay like this forever 

20-21 says hello. (19)20-21 ofc

[Pascy619]

lol

[Scorpion]

Amazing, you could divide those totals by 4 and it still would be epic. I think we might have something here.

[chuckster2012]

Looks about right for me down here..

[Weather Mike]

7 hours ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

lol

that would be epic. 

I am heading to the Green Bay game on the 2nd so please yes let that verify 

 

[Pascy619]

4 hours ago, Weather Mike said:

that would be epic. 

I am heading to the Green Bay game on the 2nd so please yes let that verify 

 

We had a storm like the GFS is hinting at in April of 2018. It dumped 3 feet around the Green Bay Area, will never forget it. GFS still has the idea of a powerful storm right after New Years but the other models seem to disagree right now. 

[Pascy619]

12z CMC seems to be back on board with next weekends storm. Won’t put much faith into it until the Euro jumps on too. 

[cyclone77]

Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  

Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

[ILSNOW]

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  

Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

12Z Euro with a full fledged snowstorm in N IL!!!

[Scorpion]

King Euro bringing the goods 

[Powerball]

It's going to be a New Years to remember if the 12z GEM is right.

Severe weather outbreak in MO/OK and Blizzard in MN/WI.

[Weather Mike]

Just now, Powerball said:

It's going to be a New Years to remember if the 12z GEM is right.

Severe weather outbreak in MO/OK and Blizzard in MN/WI.

Love it. Lets keep this trend going 

[Malacka11]

Chi crew is stealing that blizzard

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  
Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

Ton of spread on ENS right now, so we’ll see how it trends.

But yea, it’s definitely the next threat to end the new record.


.

[Baum]

A Christmas miracle. Some board optimism.

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  
Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

Fantasy land 0z NAM says hi.


.

[Pascy619]

Quite a jump south on GFS for next weekend's storm.  Chicago in the crosshairs.