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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Just got word that the NWS will be changing the met winter category, and will from now on be categorized as January and February only.  March and April will both be dubbed winter/spring, and May will remain on as spring.

And once you do that, hell will freeze over.  We may have a grasp on the physics of it, but otherwise we are still in the infancy stages.  No offense to anyone.  

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51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just a random tidbit to the Chicago snowless. The record for latest 1st measurable snowfall at Detroit is actually December 29, 1998. (I had 2 small 0.1" dustings in mid December, but DTW only had a trace). It broke the previous 1948 record by 10 days. Four days later...

I remember that "4 days later...." part.  Pretty epic for the middle part of the sub.

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Bump for a second time…

This pattern will be -PNA/-AO/-NAO, with a neutral to slightly -EPO.

Shaping up to be a gradient pattern, which could be good or bad depending on your location. Obviously MN/WI/MI should be a lock in that pattern, with areas further south having the ability to cash quite well in or swing and miss big (In terms of cold/snow).

In other words, good luck.


.

This week into Christmas weekend an obvious big swing and a miss for all but portions of MN/WI/MI. We’ll see what happens next week into New Years weekend.


.
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17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just a random tidbit to the Chicago snowless. The record for latest 1st measurable snowfall at Detroit is actually December 29, 1998. (I had 2 small 0.1" dustings in mid December, but DTW only had a trace). It broke the previous 1948 record by 10 days. Four days later...

That's impressive. But January 1999 made up for that nicely I'm assuming. 

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I have been checking the weather forecasts in the Midwest, since I will be in Ohio.  I am about 99% sure that I will see a raindrop, the first raindrop I will have seen in months. Or maybe even a snowflake. In fact, the Rocky Mountains look pretty gray. I checked the 18z GFS and 12 ECMWF for Christmas day, and they have a bigger disagreement in WI/MI. The 12z GFS and 18z GFS go up above 6" of snow (0.6" of QPF) for mid-Wisconsin and mid-lower Michigan. The ECMWF has much less, about 1" of snow (0.1" of QPF) for just a bit of Wisconsin, and the surface low pressure is less amplified.

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It's definitely looking pretty active next week.  Wave after wave traverses the country/sub with a very nice baroclinic zone for these waves to feast on.  Right now the models mostly favor the north/northwestern portion of the sub, but wouldn't take much for things to bump south a bit and give more of us white rather than wet.  At least it's not boring split flow, or dry northwest flow or something, at least there's something to watch. :popcorn:

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

January is looking awesome. Extreme cold to the North and warmth to the south and we are right in the battleground full of precip. I mean...yes models suck...but certainly can't ask for a better look as we head into the depths of winter. 

Does not look to promising with that SE Ridge unfortunately. 

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44 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Does not look to promising with that SE Ridge unfortunately. 

I disagree 100%. January is our coldest month of the year, with Feb close behind. Seeing a sea of blue over us is not necessary (even though that IS what all models/ensembles show as we get into early-mid January and beyond). Being north but in the battleground with unusually cold air in the already cold north and unusually warm air in the already warm south is just asking for lots of snowstorm potential. 

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6 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Does not look to promising with that SE Ridge unfortunately. 

The south east ridge will bring us moisture. We just need snow to the north, which is coming this week, to shunt the baroclinic zone south. We could actually be setting up for a big pattern if we tighten the baroclinic zone and have great moisture return.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The south east ridge will bring us moisture. We just need snow to the north, which is coming this week, to shunt the baroclinic zone south. We could actually be setting up for a big pattern if we tighten the baroclinic zone and have great moisture return.

Just progressively bump things south a few hundred miles over time.

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