Frog Town Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Just got word that the NWS will be changing the met winter category, and will from now on be categorized as January and February only. March and April will both be dubbed winter/spring, and May will remain on as spring. And once you do that, hell will freeze over. We may have a grasp on the physics of it, but otherwise we are still in the infancy stages. No offense to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 16 days remain for KSPI and KPIA record for first measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: 16 days remain for KSPI and KPIA record for first measurable snow. It looks like SPI got screwed out of the No.1 latest last year due to a lousy 0.1" on New Year's Day, unless they picked up more on the 2nd or 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 14 hours ago, IWXwx said: It looks like SPI got screwed out of the No.1 latest last year due to a lousy 0.1" on New Year's Day, unless they picked up more on the 2nd or 3rd. That it did, 1 amd 1.2" respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just a random tidbit to the Chicago snowless. The record for latest 1st measurable snowfall at Detroit is actually December 29, 1998. (I had 2 small 0.1" dustings in mid December, but DTW only had a trace). It broke the previous 1948 record by 10 days. Four days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Just a random tidbit to the Chicago snowless. The record for latest 1st measurable snowfall at Detroit is actually December 29, 1998. (I had 2 small 0.1" dustings in mid December, but DTW only had a trace). It broke the previous 1948 record by 10 days. Four days later... I remember that "4 days later...." part. Pretty epic for the middle part of the sub. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Bump for a second time…This pattern will be -PNA/-AO/-NAO, with a neutral to slightly -EPO.Shaping up to be a gradient pattern, which could be good or bad depending on your location. Obviously MN/WI/MI should be a lock in that pattern, with areas further south having the ability to cash quite well in or swing and miss big (In terms of cold/snow).In other words, good luck..This week into Christmas weekend an obvious big swing and a miss for all but portions of MN/WI/MI. We’ll see what happens next week into New Years weekend. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 New CFS and Euro weeklies bring the cold and snow, starting later next week through a good portion of January.. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: New CFS and Euro weeklies bring the cold and snow, starting later next week through a good portion of January. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Just a random tidbit to the Chicago snowless. The record for latest 1st measurable snowfall at Detroit is actually December 29, 1998. (I had 2 small 0.1" dustings in mid December, but DTW only had a trace). It broke the previous 1948 record by 10 days. Four days later... That's impressive. But January 1999 made up for that nicely I'm assuming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Stop poking it!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 38 minutes ago, fluoronium said: Stop poking it!!! That's a good couple day's composite...in May. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I have been checking the weather forecasts in the Midwest, since I will be in Ohio. I am about 99% sure that I will see a raindrop, the first raindrop I will have seen in months. Or maybe even a snowflake. In fact, the Rocky Mountains look pretty gray. I checked the 18z GFS and 12 ECMWF for Christmas day, and they have a bigger disagreement in WI/MI. The 12z GFS and 18z GFS go up above 6" of snow (0.6" of QPF) for mid-Wisconsin and mid-lower Michigan. The ECMWF has much less, about 1" of snow (0.1" of QPF) for just a bit of Wisconsin, and the surface low pressure is less amplified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 It's definitely looking pretty active next week. Wave after wave traverses the country/sub with a very nice baroclinic zone for these waves to feast on. Right now the models mostly favor the north/northwestern portion of the sub, but wouldn't take much for things to bump south a bit and give more of us white rather than wet. At least it's not boring split flow, or dry northwest flow or something, at least there's something to watch. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 If you're north of i-80 you may have a chance next week of 'something' frozen. Down here in the I-70 corridor....we're fked. The set up seems to be one that if a wave stays just a wave you have a chance. If it becomes something stronger it's cutsville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 January is looking awesome. Extreme cold to the North and warmth to the south and we are right in the battleground full of precip. I mean...yes models suck...but certainly can't ask for a better look as we head into the depths of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: January is looking awesome. Extreme cold to the North and warmth to the south and we are right in the battleground full of precip. I mean...yes models suck...but certainly can't ask for a better look as we head into the depths of winter. Does not look to promising with that SE Ridge unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 44 minutes ago, dmc76 said: Does not look to promising with that SE Ridge unfortunately. I disagree 100%. January is our coldest month of the year, with Feb close behind. Seeing a sea of blue over us is not necessary (even though that IS what all models/ensembles show as we get into early-mid January and beyond). Being north but in the battleground with unusually cold air in the already cold north and unusually warm air in the already warm south is just asking for lots of snowstorm potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 hours ago, dmc76 said: Does not look to promising with that SE Ridge unfortunately. The south east ridge will bring us moisture. We just need snow to the north, which is coming this week, to shunt the baroclinic zone south. We could actually be setting up for a big pattern if we tighten the baroclinic zone and have great moisture return. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Are those wind speeds? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: The south east ridge will bring us moisture. We just need snow to the north, which is coming this week, to shunt the baroclinic zone south. We could actually be setting up for a big pattern if we tighten the baroclinic zone and have great moisture return. Just progressively bump things south a few hundred miles over time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Just progressively bump things south a few hundred miles over time. Yep, plus the -PNA weakens slightly over time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yep, plus the -PNA weakens slightly over time anyways. And if we can get lucky and squeeze out a bit of early snow cover, it may go a long way to speed that process up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I think we get January. Jan '12 was actually normal to slightly above normal snowfall in SMI. Deja-vu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I'm making the drive down to Florida next week until April 1st. So expect some big snows to begin shortly after I depart. You're welcome. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 14 hours ago, Cary67 said: Are those wind speeds? It's all fantasy, so why not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 13 hours ago, RogueWaves said: I think we get January. Jan '12 was actually normal to slightly above normal snowfall in SMI. Deja-vu And then 2 months later... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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