CheeselandSkies Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, madwx said: GFS shows an active week next week, multiple storms ejecting from the SW trough Hooray, time to flip from repeated big snows missing SE, to rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 For a few runs now the GFS has a carbon copy of this weeks storm happening next Thursday into Friday. Can’t wait to do it all again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 hours ago, madwx said: For a few runs now the GFS has a carbon copy of this weeks storm happening next Thursday into Friday. Can’t wait to do it all again This time, at least as of latest 06z run it's already starting out with the heavy swath passing south of us (through central IL) so watch it end up going through southeast Missouri, Kentucky and far southern Indiana/Ohio. In late February. Also MKX has a 70% chance of snow for Monday night and 50% Tuesday, but GFS doesn't really show any increase in accumulation over us in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 nice active pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 this is my moment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Whoa, Euro actually gives us more than 2 inches over the next 240 hours? Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 4:06 PM, Chicago Storm said: As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well. Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow). Bump. Pattern change occurred as advertised early this week/this past weekend, with an active pattern this week and next week. As expected we are seeing a +AO/+NAO/-PNA, though the EPO will end up neutral/- overall instead of neutral/+. While the aforementioned EPO and the persistent PV based north of the Hudson will help keep this period from being an all out torch with significantly NW cutting storm systems, we obviously are/will see mild temp pushes (Current push, and one or two next week) and rainer risk for some. Looks like our next pattern change will occur at the very end of the month and as we enter early March. Early signs from ENS would suggest the potential for a +AO/+NAO/-EPO and neutral/+PNA pattern, which would suggest we would have the potential to flip back to a more consistently cooler/colder and potentially at least a somewhat less active pattern for bigger/organized storm systems. In addition to that, we are entering a period of SC on this side of the pole, so that would temp to support a cooler/colder idea as well during that time. We'll see how it trends, as ENS have continued to significantly struggle in the longer range this season. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 ^ Great write up CStorm love the mid range analysis. That said, your thread starting days need to take a break. No offense. Hell, last threads I started were in 2014 and I couldn't miss. Might be time to come out of retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ Great write up CStorm love the mid range analysis. That said, your thread starting days need to take a break. No offense. Hell, last threads I started were in 2014 and I couldn't miss. Might be time to come out of retirement. Will give him kudos for prediction of this current system taking similar path to GHDIII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 euro still good in the extended, lots to like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Tomorrow looks a little sneaky. Not super exciting stuff but could be a burst of snow and the windy conditions will at least blow around what fell today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Obviously things can change but that system mid to late next week looks loaded with ice potential for somebody. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 plenty to follow which is nice. give me until march 15th than I'm ready to switch gears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Obviously things can change but that system mid to late next week looks loaded with ice potential for somebody. Probably me in Central Indiana lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 17 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: euro still good in the extended, lots to like let it ride 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 encasing this snowpack in sleet and ice and topping it with a real snow would be a great end to another shit winter redemption february 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: encasing this snowpack in sleet and ice and topping it with a real snow would be a great end to another shit winter redemption february Would be fitting to receive .5" ice on top of the 0.5" of snow we just received. Hoping for just rain next week as the redemption part of February absent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 i think the event later next week will be kind to us, lots to like about the setup and support from the good models 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 ILX already talking about next week, probably a bit premature to be mentioning it a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 After the next 7 days or so, the polar air really looks to get scoured from the CONUS and southern Canada, not saying it'll be warm or torch by any means but our window for highs in the 20s and lows below 15 is quickly coming to an end 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Bump. Looks like our next pattern change will occur at the very end of the month and as we enter early March. Early signs from ENS would suggest the potential for a +AO/+NAO/-EPO and neutral/+PNA pattern, which would suggest we would have the potential to flip back to a more consistently cooler/colder and potentially at least a somewhat less active pattern for bigger/organized storm systems. We'll see how it trends, as ENS have continued to significantly struggle in the longer range this season. The next pattern shift as expected, albeit brief, has already occurred and will be around through the middle of this upcoming week. The mean trough that had been in place out in the West with the pattern we just exited has lifted, and will be more Ontatio/Quabec/Northern Great Lakes/Northeast based for this short period of time. This is leading to a short period of near A temps (Cooler north/mild south) and less active conditions. The biggest change from my previous post regarding this short period is, ENS guidance had backed off on how cold it would be. Beyond that, there will be yet another significant pattern shift, which will occur in two stages. The first stage appears to be brief once again, occurring from the middle of this upcoming week and continuing through later the first weekend of March or perhaps early into the first full week of March. This pattern will allow for a bigger push of mild temps and a more active storm pattern to return (Rainer potential high). This first stage of the pattern shift will be possible in part due to a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/+PNA/+WPO combo spike, with this ridge then collapsing eastward over the CONUS. The second stage of the main pattern shift from above appears as though it will be longer lasting. We will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-PNA pattern. This pattern will feature a mean trough that will sit in the middle of the country, leading to the return to a much more active storm pattern once again. Regarding temps, there will be the potential for cool/cold shots given ENS trough position and teleconnections...Odds are it might end up being a cold NW/mild SE situation across the sub-forum, which would obviously introduce the opportunity for rainers and snows depending on location. Should be a pattern that favors severe weather opportunities in the Dixie/SE/TNV as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Hearing rumblings of a possible PV disruption, so let’s see what happens. A very significant disruption of the SPV is expected from now through early to mid March.During this time a few things look likely to happen… First off the SPV will be split, with one half fading shortly thereafter. Beyond that point, the leftover half of the SPV, in a weaker state, centers near the North Pole with significant SW over North America.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 who's ready for another ice storm next weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 Looking like an axis of 1-3” of snowfall into N IL and the northern two tiers of the NW LOT CWA for tomorrow morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 How similar is this setup to 4/14/19?That was a daytime event that laid it down just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 On 4/1/2022 at 4:51 PM, kevlon62 said: How similar is this setup to 4/14/19? That was a daytime event that laid it down just right. Not really remotely close in most aspects. The biggest difference of all, is that was a wrapped-up/stronger SW-NW moving storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 final call 2" on top of the grill top. And will watch my 30-35" call for the season at ORD fade into that good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Ripping on the IL/WI state line in ne Winnebago county IL. Stacking up, right around 1” so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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