ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 HRRR has been moving steadily west and now north hammering northern cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 HRRR/3km NAM/NSSL/FV3/ARW all have a corridor of 6-12” in the Lake/Cook Co border area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 ORD climbing it's way back to seasonal norms via LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: ORD climbing it's way back to seasonal norms via LES Taking a page from the SBN book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Ouch. Trends def not looking good imby. Gotta hope the convergence zone doesn't shift away as quickly as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Watching obs from the eastern side of the lake (Muskegon, Benton Harbor, etc) to see when winds turn offshore. Flow is still N/NNW over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Probably posted here before, but another fun mesoscale model I look at here has been depicting the north/ central Cook bullseye too on its member #1 that just updated. http://hopwrf.info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 interested to see what LOT will do. ..... maybe flip a coin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Baum said: interested to see what LOT will do. ..... maybe flip a coin This is why we should still have the lake effect snow advisory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just got a notification for a winter storm warning. I wasn’t really paying attention to this. Maybe a surprise? Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 WSW issued for cook and lake counties (Illinois) WWA for lake Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Looking good Izzi goes with the WSW for 1"-8". Ballsy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Baum said: I'll be posting my totals by noon tomorrow now under a WWA for 2'-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still in a 6-10" point and click zone on the city lakeshore, surprised it's still this high with model trends north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Question for you Ricky— in events like these, do you ever consult with your colleagues in heavy lake effect zones (Marquette, Buffalo, GR), or are the way these events unfold very specific to the region?It's not super practical from a going into an event time-frame to do that sort of consulting with other offices. More common would be to have webinar presentations where tips and suggestions for LES could be shared by forecasters in some of the more LES prone offices. Some of our forecasters also spent part of their careers at MQT, GRR, IWX, to name a few. So they bring that experience with them. Additionally, while big LES events are less common overall in our area, we do tend to get at least a few lower end to moderate events, so our forecasters with several to many years of experience have that in their mental database. We also have had some good west and south side of the lake events within the past 10 years to build from, of course including last February. Gino just shared a lake effect pointers presentation with the staff as a refresher for our experienced forecasters and to assist our newer forecasters. Just the near term changes with tonight's event show the challenges we face in forecasting and trying to message these events. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Here's the evening afd from Gino. Gotta feel for the folks at LOT... so much bust potential being at the mercy of something of this nature in a highly populated area. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 931 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 Have issued a winter storm warning for Lake IL, central, and northern Cook Counties and a winter wx advisory for DuPage, southern Cook, and Lake County IN. Regarding the synoptic and thermodynamic environment for lake effect snow (LES), no changes from thinking of the previous shift. Very favorable environment for a dominant, intense single lake effect snow band to develop and move ashore into northeast IL overnight into Friday morning. Forecast soundings show convective layer encompassing the entire dendritic growth zone (DGZ) and given the strong instability and expected land breeze convergence band, should see strong ascent through the DGZ. Set-up appears favorable for 2"+ per hour snowfall rates during the most intense portion of the LES band (09z-16z). There has been a near unanimous shift westward shift in hires guidance in the placement of the LES band, which places the risk of heavy snow farther north into the metro area. Unfortunately, there are inherent uncertainties that come into play when trying to forecast meso-gamma scale phenomena like this. It is also not uncommon for bands to "wiggle" around and there is still spread in the various hires guidance on placement of the band. While additional shifts in the forecast placement of the band are possible, we are within the time window that a decision needed to be made, so have trended the higher snow accumulations farther north and west, though not as far north and west as most of the 00z hires guidance. The westward shift in the guidance actually increases confidence that there could be a longer residence time for some areas. Confidence is increasing that max snowfall totals will end up at least in the 6-8" range and not out of the realm of possibility that there could be isolated double digit totals. Given the timing of this event (during the height of Friday morning rush hour) and the inherent uncertainties in exact placement of the band, opted to err a bit on the side of caution with headlines. Certainly plausible that band ends up just east of Lake IL and/or Dupage county, or stays mainly west of Lake IN, but felt the course of least regret was to go a little big and risk some headline areas falling short of expectations. The WSW and forecast grids are out and updated text forecast products will be issued momentarily. - Izzi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This is why we should still have the lake effect snow advisory.And eastern region offices still do them. I think what we settled on (using winter storm watch and warning for higher end LES) is probably more confusing to some users. My preference would've been either to stick with status quo like eastern region went back to, or to simplify the name to a Winter Weather Watch, Warning, and Advisory, and specify the phenomena in the What bullet in the text. Storm implies a larger scale system, vs a mesoscale convective phenomena like LES. Sometimes it can be both, such as last Feb for Chicago and NW IN, so LES warning or advisory wouldn't have been ideal either. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hmmmmm, this is disappointing. On GR Level 3 there doesn't seem to be a base reflectivity product available for the Chicago-area terminal Dopplers (ORD, MDW). Is this normal? Was hoping to get a closer look at this band than can be done from KLOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hmmmmm, this is disappointing. On GR Level 3 there doesn't seem to be a base reflectivity product available for the Chicago-area terminal Dopplers (ORD, MDW). Is this normal? Was hoping to get a closer look at this band than can be done from KLOT.It’s available on GrLevel 3 and RadarScope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s available on GrLevel 3 and RadarScope. . Must be an issue with my copy then, it's only displaying velocity for those sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Returns increasing over southern Lake Michigan... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Ground dusted here at ORD, with this synoptic/lake enhanced combo ongoing for now. Lake convergence band is steadily pushing west on TMKE. However, the snows look far from impressive for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Coming down nicely here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2.5" the past hour in Humboldt, vis well below 1/4SM. Just over 3" total so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Stackin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Best pure les in a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snowing fairly well here at ORD, with several tenths so far. Looks like the main band is stalling just east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 good to see there is some north east ILL action. Too many times SE Wisky gets it when winds have more of a NE bend and than it's the usual NW Indy peeps. Hoping to see some flakeage even this far west. Always nice if we can pull a decent lake event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1.1” ORD as of 6am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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