michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Feb always ftw! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 no talk about the GHD lll possibilities is a bit concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 2:50 PM, michsnowfreak said: Feb always ftw! Won't be this Feb. Feb is 100% done. It'll have to wait until March for at least one more snowfall opportunity, but it's otherwise time to punt until 2022-23. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 February should be good if you're around the Lakes or at similar latitude. It's more questionable farther south, but hopefully things can break favorably for those areas to have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Spartman said: Won't be this Feb. Feb is 100% done. It'll have to wait until March for at least one more snowfall opportunity, but it's otherwise time to punt until 2022-23. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, Spartman said: Won't be this Feb. Feb is 100% done. It'll have to wait until March for at least one more snowfall opportunity, but it's otherwise time to punt until 2022-23. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, Spartman said: Won't be this Feb. Feb is 100% done. It'll have to wait until March for at least one more snowfall opportunity, but it's otherwise time to punt until 2022-23. Speak for yourself lol. Feb is not 100% done. I live in Michigan. And Feb doesn't even start for 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, Spartman said: Won't be this Feb. Feb is 100% done. It'll have to wait until March for at least one more snowfall opportunity, but it's otherwise time to punt until 2022-23. I'd be in favor of a post limit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Speak for yourself lol. Feb is not 100% done. I live in Michigan. And Feb doesn't even start for 8 days. Okay but have you seen Spartman’s 35-day forecast maps with half our region cut out? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I triple dog dare you to not look at the end of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I triple dog dare you to not look at the end of the Euro It beats looking at GFS and CMC for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: It beats looking at GFS and CMC for sure worrying about the future can make you forget to enjoy the present. Beautiful light snowfall here in the early morning. Been a nice clipper train over the past 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: worrying about the future can make you forget to enjoy the present. Beautiful light snowfall here in the early morning. Been a nice clipper train over the past 48 hours. Definitely need to appreciate the here and now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 pattern change period gonna have model volatility in the extended, hope the new regime is fruitful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Baum said: worrying about the future can make you forget to enjoy the present. Beautiful light snowfall here in the early morning. Been a nice clipper train over the past 48 hours. It's all fun and games to me at this point. I think I've finally hit that point in my weenie character arc where even little clippers like this truly make me satisfied, at least for a while. That said, the 11th of February is my birthday so you know I'm rooting for being snowed in the days before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: That's a perfect surface pattern...for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 ALEK Storm 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, ILSNOW said: ALEK Storm 22 Wash it off and fill it up....I'll take if it means getting things in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The long range 6z GFS had a few more chances towards the end of its run too. It was also trying to rebuild convection in the Western Pac at the end: Strat still looks interesting in the long range: Nothing screams SSW, but there is some warming on the GFS. I'm sure the severe fans would love a SSWE around Feb 23, lol. I'll be honest, normally I'm ready for spring by mid March, but if 2011 style severe is on the table for spring, yes, bring on the strat. warming and spring blocking. The only saving grace during next month would be a SSWE like what the Tennessee Valley forums just discussed about the long range 06z GFS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Spartman said: The only saving grace during next month would be a SSWE like what the Tennessee Valley forums just discussed this morning. I would be shocked if we got a SSW event this year. The stratospheric vortex has been very resilient and has stayed stable despite multiple pulses of upward energy from the troposphere. Also the GFS has tried multiple times in the long range to break down the vortex only to back off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 After my post late last week, there's certainly been more volatility out later in the ensemble runs, particularly on the EPS. Perhaps this is partially related to the MJO being stuck in the COD, reducing medium range predictabilityThat would be due to several of the MJO phases (especially when MJO wave has higher amplitude) have well correlated mid level pattern configurations associated with them in DJF and JFM. Just the past two days, the EPS has alternated from a not great look late in the run, to serviceable/not bad last night, to objectively bad today. It's a note of caution about the lower predictability anyway that far out. Meanwhile the GEFS has seemingly been more stable later in the run and hasn't backed off -EPO/-WPO/-PNA. I know the EPS generally verifies better than the GEFS but I wonder if more stable/persistence is the way to go for a bit. The window of favorability is still there in the first week of February, but it's far from a sure thing to benefit any given part of the subforum. The nature of the pattern with a -PNA trough digging into the southwest and downstream ridge amplification could be overamped, but the hope is the heights could be suppressed enough by the TPV near Hudson Bay to avoid a warm cutter.There's been a signal on some of the operational runs out toward and beyond 10 days of larger storms that would fit the pattern thoughts, so I'd say give a few more days to monitor the signal on the ensembles before getting too concerned about what the op runs are showing. After the first week of February, it's really low confidence in the way things are headed since the ensemble means are quite divergent at the end of their ranges and the teleconnection forecasts are also quite divergent on the EPS and GEFS. Until our potential favorable window, looks like we'll be in a mostly quiet period away from the LES belts and watching that east coast beast late this week. I remain cautiously optimistic in getting a good storm during early Feb. Interested in seeing thoughts from other long range gurus/enthusiasts on here. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 so looks like the mid range rainer is coming, just nice to see the gulf open again like this i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: After my post late last week, there's certainly been more volatility out later in the ensemble runs, particularly on the EPS. Perhaps this is partially related to the MJO being stuck in the COD, reducing medium range predictability That would be due to several of the MJO phases (especially when MJO wave has higher amplitude) have well correlated mid level pattern configurations associated with them in DJF and JFM. Just the past two days, the EPS has alternated from a not great look late in the run, to serviceable/not bad last night, to objectively bad today. It's a note of caution about the lower predictability anyway that far out. Meanwhile the GEFS has seemingly been more stable later in the run and hasn't backed off -EPO/-WPO/-PNA. I know the EPS generally verifies better than the GEFS but I wonder if more stable/persistence is the way to go for a bit. The window of favorability is still there in the first week of February, but it's far from a sure thing to benefit any given part of the subforum. The nature of the pattern with a -PNA trough digging into the southwest and downstream ridge amplification could be overamped, but the hope is the heights could be suppressed enough by the TPV near Hudson Bay to avoid a warm cutter. There's been a signal on some of the operational runs out toward and beyond 10 days of larger storms that would fit the pattern thoughts, so I'd say give a few more days to monitor the signal on the ensembles before getting too concerned about what the op runs are showing. After the first week of February, it's really low confidence in the way things are headed since the ensemble means are quite divergent at the end of their ranges and the teleconnection forecasts are also quite divergent on the EPS and GEFS. Until our potential favorable window, looks like we'll be in a mostly quiet period away from the LES belts and watching that east coast beast late this week. I remain cautiously optimistic in getting a good storm during early Feb. Interested in seeing thoughts from other long range gurus/enthusiasts on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 38 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: so looks like the mid range rainer is coming, just nice to see the gulf open again like this i guess Is that you December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 necessary risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 eps and gefs look pretty set on torching before the western trough does its thing, not seeing 2 many paths to snow in the short term, nam bullish on lake enhanced duster totals early fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 20 hours ago, madwx said: I would be shocked if we got a SSW event this year. The stratospheric vortex has been very resilient and has stayed stable despite multiple pulses of upward energy from the troposphere. Also the GFS has tried multiple times in the long range to break down the vortex only to back off Good. If there's an SSW now it'll be BN through mid-May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If correct, the only thing that's gonna be rock'n in Feb is Wilfred Brimley on his front porch sipp'n some countrytime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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