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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

End of January-First Week or Two of February Thoughts: The ensemble signal for an active and colder leaning pattern has not gone away. In fact, the signal has grown in recent days. Barring major chan

RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Jumping back in after a long hiatus... As long as the wave is not much more amped on Tuesday like the GEM/RGEM, I think ORD finally breaks the epic measurable snow drought (Edit: Getting 0.1" isn't a

RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

After my post late last week, there's certainly been more volatility out later in the ensemble runs, particularly on the EPS. Perhaps this is partially related to the MJO being stuck in the COD, reduc

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

^ Yeah...as much as I truly respect LOT and our NWS forecasters, this winter's discussions from them seem to be hyper-focused on the tiniest of wintry weather threats...as if Chicagoland residents live in Atlanta and don't know how to handle winter.

"Oh noze, we *may* get up to 1-2" of snow over the next 7 days, and temps may be below freezing for part of this time...we must sound the alarms!!!".

More optimistically...it could just be that LOT is so bored with the wx here (and who can argue with that) - so, might as well elaborate on the most minor threats in AFDs because there's nothing else to talk about. 

I just got back from snowmobiling in northern WI this weekend - people there are legitimately pissed that the weather is so mild and tame...even though it was 20F with 8" of snow on the ground.  It's like two different planets.

We had one of those "minor" events yesterday. I caught 0.01" in my gauge, and 0.03" of ice from graupel/fzdz yesterday. That thin coat of ice contributed to around 70 wrecks/slideoffs in our county alone. There were also a couple people injured from slipping on the ice. I know it doesn't sound like much for someone living in Chicagoland, but where our entire county only has 37,000 residents, the ice had a significant impact.

I say all of that to point out that NWS can't be weenies like us, they have to forecast for any weather event and go into detail so their customers can get as a specific forecast as possible. sometimes, minor events can result in significant impact. (The dowel measures 0.74" dry)

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

^ Yeah...as much as I truly respect LOT and our NWS forecasters, this winter's discussions from them seem to be hyper-focused on the tiniest of wintry weather threats...as if Chicagoland residents live in Atlanta and don't know how to handle winter.

"Oh noze, we *may* get up to 1-2" of snow over the next 7 days, and temps may be below freezing for part of this time...we must sound the alarms!!!".

More optimistically...it could just be that LOT is so bored with the wx here (and who can argue with that) - so, might as well elaborate on the most minor threats in AFDs because there's nothing else to talk about. 

I just got back from snowmobiling in northern WI this weekend - people there are legitimately pissed that the weather is so mild and tame...even though it was 20F with 8" of snow on the ground.  It's like two different planets.

I have noticed that as well.  And I'm not a huge fan of using the word "active" just because there may be multiple chances of small amounts of precip over a period of time.  It can snow 3 times and add up to 4 inches (or even less) or it can snow 3 times and add up to 20 inches.

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Stebo

Stebo

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There has been evidence of a pattern change showing up on longer range models around the 1st of the month, more into a neutral PNA slightly negative PNA regime, if that were to be the case it should help a lot of us out as the southeast ridge doesn't flex too much.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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There has been evidence of a pattern change showing up on longer range models around the 1st of the month, more into a neutral PNA slightly negative PNA regime, if that were to be the case it should help a lot of us out as the southeast ridge doesn't flex too much.

Hinted at it in my post yesterday.

Big issue is that ENS have been horrendous past that 1-1.5 week range. So it will be a wait and see type of thing.
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OHweather

OHweather

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Very much need the PNA to drop and the core of the cold to shift west for those outside of the southern/easternmost fringes of the sub-forum to have a shot at anything other than clippers. That seems like it will happen into February...but given how this winter has gone, watch it go from too warm to too cutter-y in 3 days. The current pattern very much is coming in on the colder side of the envelope compared to what was shown on the ensembles 10-15 days ago, which is why the southern Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes (and I-95) are getting the snow.

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Baum

Baum

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8 hours ago, mimillman said:

I am happy with the clippers next week. Back to back high ratio fluff clippers are what make January in Chicago great. Bring it.

I like clippers. Unfortunaetly, they can be very fickle in moisture and track even within 24 hours. Plus I prefer my clipper trains  post a 10" storm with a firmly established vodka cold air mass. This train going to sputter  on a patchy brown grass terrain...if things pan out. But it beats the last 7 days, and I see signs of hope at the end of the month. Two months of met. winter gone.

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mimillman

mimillman

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35 minutes ago, Baum said:

I like clippers. Unfortunaetly, they can be very fickle in moisture and track even within 24 hours. Plus I prefer my clipper trains  post a 10" storm with a firmly established vodka cold air mass. This train going to sputter  on a patchy brown grass terrain...if things pan out. But it beats the last 7 days, and I see signs of hope at the end of the month. Two months of met. winter gone.

Clippers can be disappointing, but they can also over achieve. These two aren’t the most potent but I’d argue it beats the last 2 weeks far and away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 3-4” between the two of them.

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
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I remember discussing the "clipper train" of late Jan./early Feb. 2019 on here (thread started by @Hoosier ).

 

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@madwx : "Don't forget the engine tomorrow, which is the arctic front.  looks to bring a DAB-.5" to areas east of the Mississippi."

I believe it was only thanks to a discussion this winter that I finally know what "DAB" means, back then I interpreted it as "a little dab of snow," but didn't understand why it was capitalized.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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End of January-First Week or Two of February Thoughts:
The ensemble signal for an active and colder leaning pattern has not gone away. In fact, the signal has grown in recent days. Barring major changes, chances will be elevated for a regional winter storm (significant to major) or two during this stretch. Expecting a short period of moderation in the wake of the early-mid next week cold shot as the pattern reshuffles from persistent western ridging and eastern troughing, with positive height anomalies sliding east from the western ridge finally breaking down.

Key Factors:
- Very impressive poleward ridging in the western EPO and WPO domain (western half of Alaska and the Aleutians for a -EPO and a deeply -WPO): This will keep the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) on our side of the pole, and a continuous stream of very cold air masses and Arctic highs from western and central Canada due to cross polar flow.

This can be seen through: strongly positive height anomalies spiking northward over western AK and the Aleutians during the second half of the EPS and GEFS runs; modeled 1030-1035ish mb highs and consistently positive MSLP anomalies from western Canada into northern Plains; and sharply negative 850 mb anomalies locked in from western Canada to the northwestern parts of the sub-forum. This all signals very strong ensemble member agreement.

- Increasingly -PNA in response to the strong upstream ridging: This will finally allow the return of short-wave troughs breaking underneath the EPO/WPO ridging and coming ashore on the west coast, along with the return of southeast ridging. The TPV staying on our side of the pole and migrating back southward in response to the north Pacific ridge spiking will keep the southeast ridge in check, with only modest positive height anomalies over the southern and eastern US.

This will bring a favorable west-southwest flow pattern (storm track) and also lessen the risk for very warm cutters. 7 day precip anomalies poke back into the positive territory for the latter part of the EPS and GEFS runs over a good portion of the subforum. This will occur while large high pressures should be in place to the northwest for more classic synoptic surface patterns. 

NAO: Should average out positive, though with stable cross-polar flow regime, not seeing it playing a huge role. Main issue would be for any more amplified southwest flow systems not having an upstream block, so suppression would be less likely.

While it's certainly been a very frustrating winter for many in the subforum, the upcoming pattern objectively offers reasons for optimism. Of course we can't quite lock this in yet, though the fact that the ensembles haven't backed off the favorable look at the end of January into February and this signal has grown as we inch closer is a good sign. So in sum, after the current clippers only aside from LES northwest flow pattern, signs continue to point toward a pattern change that will offer elevated chances for a regional winter storm or two.

Beyond the potential favorable stretch seen on range of the 15-16 day ensembles, if the north Pacific ridging retrogrades farther west, that will allow the southeast ridge to flex more, though the poleward ridging is so strong that pattern shouldn't instantly go toward torchy, and is likely to stay active with high confidence in a -PNA. 

Here's hoping that we get a few events at least as good as late last January and February. 



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