Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Minneapolis is further from Chicago then Columbus….just sayin 

[Baum]

meanwhile Gino Izzi comes through again finding exciting potential in a rather benign early January pattern:

"IF SNOWPACK REMAINS POWDERY AND BLOWABLE, THEN  
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS  
IN OPEN AREAS."

who knew Chicago was the new Fargo.

[CheeselandSkies]

This sneaky wind event (wasn't really paying attention to it, just the ever-decreasing forecast snow totals for tomorrow as the event drew closer) has the potential to be rather nasty.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[hawkeye_wx]

Total season snowfall so far.

[ILSNOW]

Ricky

 

Next item of note is the potential for a period of robust snow
showers/squalls on the Arctic front late tonight-early Wednesday.
including into Chicago. We wouldn`t be looking at much in the way
of accumulation, though snow could fall heavily for a short period
and coat paved surfaces, which would be problematic as temperatures
plummet through Wednesday morning behind the front. Finally, have
higher confidence in advisory criteria westerly winds (45+ mph
gusts) for much of if not the entire area through early Wednesday
afternoon. For the full forecast package issuance this afternoon,
will be considering a Winter Weather Advisory expansion, as well
as likely issuing a Wind Advisory for the remaining counties.

Castro

[Baum]

^

now we get pumped over blowing snow advisories and sub zero wind chills. Beggars can't be choosers.

[WestMichigan]

11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Ricky

 

Next item of note is the potential for a period of robust snow
showers/squalls on the Arctic front late tonight-early Wednesday.
including into Chicago. We wouldn`t be looking at much in the way
of accumulation, though snow could fall heavily for a short period
and coat paved surfaces, which would be problematic as temperatures
plummet through Wednesday morning behind the front. Finally, have
higher confidence in advisory criteria westerly winds (45+ mph
gusts) for much of if not the entire area through early Wednesday
afternoon. For the full forecast package issuance this afternoon,
will be considering a Winter Weather Advisory expansion, as well
as likely issuing a Wind Advisory for the remaining counties.

Castro

A little different story on this side of the lake.
 

Confidence is relatively high for major travel impacts over wrn
Lwr MI on Wednesday due to a combination snow showers (heavy at
times), blowing snow, winds gusting to 40-50 mph, and falling
temps. Frequent whiteouts and abruptly plummeting temps will lead
to treacherous/icy roadways and conditions in which we often see
numerous slide offs and sometimes even multi-car pile ups on the
major interstates/highways.

Total snow amounts are a bit more uncertain though since the high
winds on Wednesday will spread the snow out, sending multi-bands
well inland. This will probably limit amounts at the immediate
shoreline with displacement of higher totals farther inland toward
the US 131 corridor. Even where amounts are not too excessive
though, feel the combo of elements and occasional
whiteouts/squalls/near blizzard conditions warrants having a
warning out on Wednesday.

[A-L-E-K]

[Spartman]

37 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Total season snowfall so far.

Still have a total of less than an inch of snowfall so far this season.

[zinski1990]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Still have a total of less than an inch of snowfall so far this season.

Good old Indiana snow shield

[KokomoWX]

50 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Good old Indiana snow shield

It is very real this season.  I'm trying to not cancel winter but am considering it.

[Jim Martin]

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

On 12/17/2021 at 11:57 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Bump for a second time…

This pattern will be -PNA/-AO/-NAO, with a neutral to slightly -EPO.

Shaping up to be a gradient pattern, which could be good or bad depending on your location. Obviously MN/WI/MI should be a lock in that pattern, with areas further south having the ability to cash quite well in or swing and miss big (In terms of cold/snow).

In other words, good luck.


.

The first week or so of this pattern was a big swing and a miss, but the second week or so panned out for many.

[Chicago Storm]

As many have alluded too, we're entering a fairly zzz period once again through mid month.

This period will feature generally a N to + PNA/AO/EPO and +NAO. It will likely be lacking any good snow once again for most, and will likely be more of a roller coaster with temps, between fairly cold and more average (As can be seen the next week or so for example).

[IWXwx]

So for Indiana and Ohio the switch is flipping from Alek's WAD to CAD. Not cold air damming, but Cold And Dry.

[jbcmh81]

55 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

So for Indiana and Ohio the switch is flipping from Alek's WAD to CAD. Not cold air damming, but Cold And Dry.

That posted map is a good illustration of why there are 2 areas of focus on this forum.  It's not east-west, it's north-south.  That's why people in Detroit, Chicago, Des Moines, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, etc. all can talk about the same storm in the same thread because those areas can all sometimes share in the same events, but it's pretty rare that a storm that hits Chicago-Detroit also hits Peoria-Indy-Columbus.  It's not about "stealing" anyone's storm for any area, it's just the nature of one area getting hit is usually bad for the other.  

 

[Chicago Storm]

That posted map is a good illustration of why there are 2 areas of focus on this forum.  It's not east-west, it's north-south.  That's why people in Detroit, Chicago, Des Moines, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, etc. all can talk about the same storm in the same thread because those areas can all sometimes share in the same events, but it's pretty rare that a storm that hits Chicago-Detroit also hits Peoria-Indy-Columbus.  It's not about "stealing" anyone's storm for any area, it's just the nature of one area getting hit is usually bad for the other.  
 

and you can make your own threads for that like we do when there is potential up here. no one is stopping you, and you have enough posters to fill a thread.


.

[zinski1990]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

and you can make your own threads for that like we do when there is potential up here. no one is stopping you, and you have enough posters to fill a thread.


.

Problem is we have nothing to look forward to lol

[Baum]

It's real out there this morning.

[Baum]

10 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

Problem is we have nothing to look forward to lol

May.

[CheeselandSkies]

34 minutes ago, Baum said:

May.

...when it will be cold rain followed by instant flip to WAD. Our outbreaks, if they happen, will come on random mesoscale accident days in July and August.

[zinski1990]

I swear we haven't had actual severe weather seasons in April and May since like 2011

[CheeselandSkies]

39 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

I swear we haven't had actual severe weather seasons in April and May since like 2011

2019 tried (Dayton day), and a little thing called Rochelle happened in 2015. But yeah other than that, not much of note in this region.

[Chicago Storm]

Solid snowstorm for KY and TN today

Think at one point in time we used to have a poster from somewhere in KY. I’m guessing they probably migrated to the Tennessee Valley sub-forum though.

[mimillman]

Ugly

[Svrwx]

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Solid snowstorm for KY and TN today

Think at one point in time we used to have a poster from somewhere in KY. I’m guessing they probably migrated to the Tennessee Valley sub-forum though.

Is it the same one that was a meteorologist out of Paducah?

[OHweather]

The be frank, the pattern through the next 10 days or so looks like horseshit for snow potential here in the Midwest, outside of LES belts now and later this weekend into early next week. Pacific puke floods the whole country after the Arctic blast early next week. But, the ensembles are in pretty remarkable agreement for so far out in retrograding the ridging after mid-month as the Pacific jet backs off a bit, putting it just off the West Coast and building it towards AK. Also signs of a somewhat more active sub-tropical jet too. With a neutral to even positive NAO and ridge just off the West Coast, it would turn more active in the Midwest somewhere between January 17th and 25th (with some LES possible slightly before it turns more favorable for larger system snows). The GEFS could be colder and maybe give places along and south of the Ohio River a better shot at snow, the Euro may be more of a mid-Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes deal for where it'd be snowiest. Anyways, let's see if this look can move up in time on the ensembles over the next several days. 

EPS:

 

GFS ensemble: 

[Chicago Storm]

Is it the same one that was a meteorologist out of Paducah?

It was someone else deeper into KY, just can’t recall the username.

The person you’re referring to isn’t around on here anymore, but is still around off the board.


.

[pondo1000]

30 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The be frank, the pattern through the next 10 days or so looks like horseshit for snow potential here in the Midwest, outside of LES belts now and later this weekend into early next week. Pacific puke floods the whole country after the Arctic blast early next week. But, the ensembles are in pretty remarkable agreement for so far out in retrograding the ridging after mid-month as the Pacific jet backs off a bit, putting it just off the West Coast and building it towards AK. Also signs of a somewhat more active sub-tropical jet too. With a neutral to even positive NAO and ridge just off the West Coast, it would turn more active in the Midwest somewhere between January 17th and 25th (with some LES possible slightly before it turns more favorable for larger system snows). The GEFS could be colder and maybe give places along and south of the Ohio River a better shot at snow, the Euro may be more of a mid-Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes deal for where it'd be snowiest. Anyways, let's see if this look can move up in time on the ensembles over the next several days. 

EPS:

 

GFS ensemble: 

Thx man! Always appreciate your insight. Like being back in Ohio or do you miss Joy-zee? 

[OHweather]

19 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Thx man! Always appreciate your insight. Like being back in Ohio or do you miss Joy-zee? 

I'm very happy to be back where I'm from at a job I always wanted...still busy getting settled in and briefly living at home to save a bit of money and take my time finding an apartment, which let's just say is an adjustment after being able to do whatever I wanted whenever I wanted for 5 years living on my own. But that stuff will work itself out, very happy overall to be back. Not to hate on NJ but it wasn't home and NW NJ isn't all that exciting (aside from surprisingly hilly and wooded terrain to do outdoor activities in).