Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Final snowfall totals of 3.3” ORD and 7.2” MDW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Final snowfall totals of 3.3” ORD and 7.2” MDW. Would estimate 5” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Final snowfall totals of 3.3” ORD and 7.2” MDW. That puts ORD a little above 15" for the season. I did that work (looking into sub 15" heading into Feb) a few days ago for nothing. Who knew there would be a lake effect bailout of this magnitude. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Possum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 storm total of just under 7.5 inches in west humboldt park. some of the driest snow I’ve seen in a while. it’s already compacted down some in the hour since I took this pic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That puts ORD a little above 15" for the season. I did that work (looking into sub 15" heading into Feb) a few days ago for nothing. Who knew there would be a lake effect bailout of this magnitude. Catching up to DTW. But not there yet lol. ORD: 15.8" DTW: 19.0" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 For those of us that are missing the storm this week unfortunately it looks like crickets around here through about Feb 10th. Hopefully the 2nd half of Feb brings something meaningful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: For those of us that are missing the storm this week unfortunately it looks like crickets around here through about Feb 10th. Hopefully the 2nd half of Feb brings something meaningful. Afraid we might be stuck in a cold a dry pattern for 10-14 days. After that at least temps should start responding more to increased daylight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: For those of us that are missing the storm this week unfortunately it looks like crickets around here through about Feb 10th. Hopefully the 2nd half of Feb brings something meaningful. Yeah not holding my breath at this point. If I remember December was better for you than here. Winterless Decembers are really becoming tiresome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Last couple model runs showing a few more events in the next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Last couple model runs showing a few more events in the next two weeks I seen that hopefully one of those can give us a good 6 to 10 of some real fluff now quickcrete falling from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 HRRR and NAM picking up on a coating to an inch in N. IL/IN tomorrow evening. Just something to keep things fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 not sure why, but I'm optimistic on the late week clipper. Late season clippers can really get surprisingly juiced if your on the right side. LOT: THIS CLIPPER IS ONE TO WATCH AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHETHER OR NOT THAT'S INTO OUR FORECAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN QC: THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS OF A STRONGER CLIPPER WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN SUPPORT OF THIS FEATURE AND ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES Milwaukee: THE SECOND, AND MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, Baum said: not sure why, but I'm optimistic on the late week clipper. Late season clippers can really get surprisingly juiced if your on the right side. LOT: THIS CLIPPER IS ONE TO WATCH AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHETHER OR NOT THAT'S INTO OUR FORECAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN QC: THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS OF A STRONGER CLIPPER WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN SUPPORT OF THIS FEATURE AND ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES Milwaukee: THE SECOND, AND MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. Agree, need to see it keep digging south. I don’t love being south of SLP on these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 3 hours ago, mimillman said: Agree, need to see it keep digging south. I don’t love being south of SLP on these It looks like more of a lake-enhanced event here, but the air aloft is not very cold due to the PV being well north. Good clippers this late in the season around here need to have much steeper lapse rates. The GFS has a better front-end thump a couple days later, but ECMWF has nothing as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2022 Author Share Posted February 6, 2022 As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well. Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow). Not surprisingly some differences on how the EPS and GEFS are handling the pattern. The EPS are further west with the mean trough axis, which would set up for potential for more mild temp pushes and rainer potential as well. The GEFS are further east with the mean trough axis, and would favor a cooler scenario temp wise with more snow chances for more as well. We'll have to see if there's a trend towards either solution this week, 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Bone dry on the west coast in the heart of wet season, looking grim for spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well. Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow). Not surprisingly some differences on how the EPS and GEFS are handling the pattern. The EPS are further west with the mean trough axis, which would set up for potential for more mild temp pushes and rainer potential as well. The GEFS are further east with the mean trough axis, and would favor a cooler scenario temp wise with more snow chances for more as well. We'll have to see if there's a trend towards either solution this week, Would it be fair to characterize this entire winter as having about 2 weeks of a favorable pattern for quality storm potential up to this point? Very end of December/New Years and the late January early February period. Most of January in dry NW flow and December torchy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 We may very well be returning back to a milder pattern towards the final week of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 27 minutes ago, Spartman said: We may very well be returning back to a milder pattern towards the final week of this month. Little SER not a bad thing for more active pattern here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Little SER not a bad thing for more active pattern here Pattern is a gamble if it flexes too much. But you would probably want to roll the dice considering how things have gone so far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Spartman said: We may very well be returning back to a milder pattern towards the final week of this month. so Cohen thinks it's going to get milder as we get towards March. I believe his last call you posted was that it would get colder in January. got to give his props, he was right on that January call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pattern is a gamble if it flexes too much. But you would probably want to roll the dice considering how things have gone so far. At the very least we could use the precip even if it is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Was spoiled last year when the seasonal snow cover was gone the first of April instead of mid May. Water content of the snowpack on this date last year was around 4”, this year it’s 7” or better. Another month an I’ll be ready for some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 hours ago, Spartman said: We may very well be returning back to a milder pattern towards the final week of this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 6 hours ago, Spartman said: We may very well be returning back to a milder pattern towards the final week of this month. [/url] Haven't looked at the subsequent runs but 6Z GFS had a massive cold shot late in the run...Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Haven't looked at the subsequent runs but 6Z GFS had a massive cold shot late in the run...Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk the long range GFS and super cold shots. Name a better combo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 56 minutes ago, madwx said: the long range GFS and super cold shots. Name a better combo I know, right? But my point was, the tweet referenced the GFS, so it seems to be flipping from run to run, which is not exactly unexpected at the ranges we're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I know, right? But my point was, the tweet referenced the GFS, so it seems to be flipping from run to run, which is not exactly unexpected at the ranges we're talking about. yeah the tweet mentioned the GFS ensembles which don't show major cold at the end of the mean. Would say we will get a couple more cold shots(this weekend and mid/late next week) before we switch fully to the new pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 gfs tried to do something with the arctic front / clipper thing friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 43 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs tried to do something with the arctic front / clipper thing friday 2" thumper which turns to a drizzle fest and a flash freeze on the back end. Welcome to late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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