Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Initial n. stream impulse misses phase, s. stream (being slower, is now almost phasing (or is late) with a second n. stream. Good stuff! The northern stream is really the bugger here....along with the speed of the s. stream.... Perhaps that is the sequence Euro was initially keying on. (not that I'm saying we have a chance to get back there) The first northern stream vort needs to quickly pass through and get out of the way, so the second impulse can dig and meet the southern stream one. The RGEM seems to be indicating the same in it's latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 that's kinda what I was thinking too....but i don't have access to the 6-hr output so i never really got a good view of the full evolution of those monster runs... Perhaps that is the sequence Euro was initially keying on. (not that I'm saying we have a chance to get back there) The first northern stream vort needs to quickly pass through and get out of the way, so the second impulse can dig and meet the southern stream one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's not forgot the one run blip the Euro had at exactly the same time last week for exactly the same timeframe. Maybe this was the reverse. /weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the 18z GFS smacks nantucket with 45-50kt sustained winds, hurricane force just south of the low. Then again if it moves west that spells huge trouble for coastal NJ/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thank you for the explanations as to how OP works on model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 YHBrooklyn, I think you speak more wisdom than you or anyone else would want to believe. Everyone needs to calm down and continue to asses future data sets to ensure that this one doesn't "sneak up" on us again, much like EVERY event last year, other than the Feb 10th Noreaster. There have been several signals in the American data today that would indicate a solution like the former runs of the ECMWF may be just around the corner once again. Patience, ppl. This is what makes weather great. If it doesn't snow, then we move on with our lives and track the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's not forgot the one run blip the Euro had at exactly the same time last week for exactly the same timeframe. Maybe this was the reverse. /weenie Wouldn't it make sense that the one blip that would happen would be when the new data came in last nite and this morning. I mean, isn't some of the data used in later runs, to create run to run continuity? Or maybe what I mean is that, now that the models have had a good chance to digest new data with the old data, they are coming back around to what was correct all along, with a more amplified fully phased system. What else would explain the pink tutu and dancing by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Have to agree with one of the previous posters, this is well within the recently consolidating Euro/GFS Ensembles. As was noted in the 12z run both 12z op runs of GFS and Euro were slightly east of the ensemble mean. From what I saw of the GFS ensembles there were several members that showed hits similar to this 18z Op. dont know WHY the 18z GFS ensembles are going to be any more accurate -- or inaccurate as the 12 z GFS ensembles were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 dont know WHY the 18z GFS ensembles are going to be any more accurate -- or inaccurate as the 12 z GFS ensembles were. Blind faith and the belief in Christmas magic, but you don't buy into that so.... Honestly, I'm just interested in the 00Z guidance later. Everything about the 18Z is just speculation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Each model uses what is called an assimilation cycle...which for the GFS is I believe +/- 3 hours. So all new observations that fall in that time period are assimilated....however in assimilation you must provide a first guess field of the atmosphere which usually comes from a forecast from the previous cycle (in the GFS's case i believe they would use the 6-hour forecast from the 0z run for the initial first guess for the 6z model cycle)... Wouldn't it make sense that the one blip that would happen would be when the new data came in last nite and this morning. I mean, isn't some of the data used in later runs, to create run to run continuity? Or maybe what I mean is that, now that the models have had a good chance to digest new data with the old data, they are coming back around to what was correct all along, with a more amplified fully phased system. What else would explain the pink tutu and dancing by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's not forgot the one run blip the Euro had at exactly the same time last week for exactly the same timeframe. Maybe this was the reverse. /weenie Quite honestly, this 18Z op run can really almost be considered part of an ensemble suite, and it shows nothing different than what a few members already developed. Probabilities really have not changed with this event. In other words, I agree with your assessment of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18Z GEFS Mean is east of its 12Z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 dont know WHY the 18z GFS ensembles are going to be any more accurate -- or inaccurate as the 12 z GFS ensembles were. They won't be - or rather shouldn't be as a mean. But a large spread could keep the door open for miracles. An individual member could still be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So the mean goes east and the op goes west. Anybody have any explanations as to why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So the mean goes east and the op goes west. Anybody have any explanations as to why? Random chance and small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In other words what some are implying is that the changes we see here ... http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_054s.gif To 18 Z http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048s.gif Are not realistically within the realm of probabilities? In other words the Northern stream is already completely sampled? However..when the ECM was showing a blizzard like system it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In other words what some are implying is that the changes we see here ... http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_054s.gif To 18 Z http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048s.gif Are not realistically within the realm of probabilities? In other words the Northern stream is already completely sampled? However..when the ECM was showing a blizzard like system it was? All the energy is currently somewhere up by Santa now. He doesn't launch balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So the mean goes east and the op goes west. Anybody have any explanations as to why? It means the operational probably isn't on to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Things in the atmosphere are never fully or accurately (in terms of 100% accurate) sampled....we have the luxury of a rather dense radiosonde network over North America, but it by no means samples the entire atmosphere.... Now that being said, waves over the oceans are not as well sampled as waves over land masses with radiosonde networks... In other words what some are implying is that the changes we see here ...http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_054s.gif To 18 Z http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048s.gif Are not realistically within the realm of probabilities? In other words the Northern stream is already completely sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 All the energy is currently somewhere up by Santa now. This is what i thought and i can imagine that raob data is not that strong in those regions... So hypothetically speaking the southern S/W is slower which it appeared to be for example on that 18 Z GFS Op run...and the Northern Stream energy is not being sampled correctly.... Is it out of the realms of possibilities of that being the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Random chance and small sample size. The ensemble mean looks a little faster, hard to tell if it is further east. If it is, the difference is very minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It means the operational probably isn't on to anything. Probably would have to see the ind. members to know, but it mostly likely is the latest version of our one step forward, two steps backward routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I can't tell exactly...so correct me if i'm wrong... but it doesn't look much different from the 12z ensemble mean that means this 18z solution is likely just more on the western envelope of solutions we saw in the 12z ensembles...anyone seen the 18z individual members? The ensemble mean looks a little faster, hard to tell if it is further east. If it is, the difference is very minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tombo just posted the ind members, and they look worse than I could've imagined (for the MA). It's getting really hard to be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Probably would have to see the ind. members to know, but it mostly likely is the latest version of our one step forward, two steps backward routine. It's probably wrong in hanging the s/w back and slower. Everything else lately has been faster than previous or more or less constant on forward speed. But who knows.. if it is seeing something we should see other models do similar later and their results would likely be similar. I wouldn't bet on that though.. we are getting fairly good agreement save a weird run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tombo just posted the ind members, and they look worse than I could've imagined (for the MA). It's getting really hard to be positive. It was just an 18Z burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18 Z UKMET at 60 hrs looks slightly faster then GFS but looks like it slowed down from 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Didn't the nam slow down the shortwave just like the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Current Radar - http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php I know a lot of this isn't reaching the ground but isn't northern energy a little more robust than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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