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18Z Model Thread


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Initial n. stream impulse misses phase, s. stream (being slower, is now almost phasing (or is late) with a second n. stream. Good stuff! The northern stream is really the bugger here....along with the speed of the s. stream.... :arrowhead:

Perhaps that is the sequence Euro was initially keying on. (not that I'm saying we have a chance to get back there) The first northern stream vort needs to quickly pass through and get out of the way, so the second impulse can dig and meet the southern stream one. The RGEM seems to be indicating the same in it's latest run.

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that's kinda what I was thinking too....but i don't have access to the 6-hr output so i never really got a good view of the full evolution of those monster runs...

Perhaps that is the sequence Euro was initially keying on. (not that I'm saying we have a chance to get back there) The first northern stream vort needs to quickly pass through and get out of the way, so the second impulse can dig and meet the southern stream one.

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YHBrooklyn,

I think you speak more wisdom than you or anyone else would want to believe. Everyone needs to calm down and continue to asses future data sets to ensure that this one doesn't "sneak up" on us again, much like EVERY event last year, other than the Feb 10th Noreaster. There have been several signals in the American data today that would indicate a solution like the former runs of the ECMWF may be just around the corner once again. Patience, ppl. This is what makes weather great. If it doesn't snow, then we move on with our lives and track the next one.

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Let's not forgot the one run blip the Euro had at exactly the same time last week for exactly the same timeframe.

Maybe this was the reverse.

/weenie

Wouldn't it make sense that the one blip that would happen would be when the new data came in last nite and this morning. I mean, isn't some of the data used in later runs, to create run to run continuity? Or maybe what I mean is that, now that the models have had a good chance to digest new data with the old data, they are coming back around to what was correct all along, with a more amplified fully phased system.

What else would explain the pink tutu and dancing by the models?

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Guest someguy

Have to agree with one of the previous posters, this is well within the recently consolidating Euro/GFS Ensembles. As was noted in the 12z run both 12z op runs of GFS and Euro were slightly east of the ensemble mean. From what I saw of the GFS ensembles there were several members that showed hits similar to this 18z Op.

dont know WHY the 18z GFS ensembles are going to be any more accurate -- or inaccurate as the 12 z GFS ensembles were.

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dont know WHY the 18z GFS ensembles are going to be any more accurate -- or inaccurate as the 12 z GFS ensembles were.

Blind faith and the belief in Christmas magic, but you don't buy into that so....

Honestly, I'm just interested in the 00Z guidance later. Everything about the 18Z is just speculation at this point.

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Each model uses what is called an assimilation cycle...which for the GFS is I believe +/- 3 hours. So all new observations that fall in that time period are assimilated....however in assimilation you must provide a first guess field of the atmosphere which usually comes from a forecast from the previous cycle (in the GFS's case i believe they would use the 6-hour forecast from the 0z run for the initial first guess for the 6z model cycle)...

Wouldn't it make sense that the one blip that would happen would be when the new data came in last nite and this morning. I mean, isn't some of the data used in later runs, to create run to run continuity? Or maybe what I mean is that, now that the models have had a good chance to digest new data with the old data, they are coming back around to what was correct all along, with a more amplified fully phased system.

What else would explain the pink tutu and dancing by the models?

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Let's not forgot the one run blip the Euro had at exactly the same time last week for exactly the same timeframe.

Maybe this was the reverse.

/weenie

Quite honestly, this 18Z op run can really almost be considered part of an ensemble suite, and it shows nothing different than what a few members already developed. Probabilities really have not changed with this event.

In other words, I agree with your assessment of the situation.

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In other words what some are implying is that the changes we see here ...

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_054s.gif

To 18 Z

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048s.gif

Are not realistically within the realm of probabilities?

In other words the Northern stream is already completely sampled?

However..when the ECM was showing a blizzard like system it was?

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In other words what some are implying is that the changes we see here ...

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_054s.gif

To 18 Z

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048s.gif

Are not realistically within the realm of probabilities?

In other words the Northern stream is already completely sampled?

However..when the ECM was showing a blizzard like system it was?

All the energy is currently somewhere up by Santa now. He doesn't launch balloons.

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Things in the atmosphere are never fully or accurately (in terms of 100% accurate) sampled....we have the luxury of a rather dense radiosonde network over North America, but it by no means samples the entire atmosphere....

Now that being said, waves over the oceans are not as well sampled as waves over land masses with radiosonde networks...

In other words what some are implying is that the changes we see here ...

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_054s.gif

To 18 Z

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048s.gif

Are not realistically within the realm of probabilities?

In other words the Northern stream is already completely sampled?

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All the energy is currently somewhere up by Santa now.

This is what i thought and i can imagine that raob data is not that strong in those regions...

So hypothetically speaking the southern S/W is slower which it appeared to be for example on that 18 Z GFS Op run...and the Northern Stream energy is not being sampled correctly....

Is it out of the realms of possibilities of that being the case?

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I can't tell exactly...so correct me if i'm wrong...

but it doesn't look much different from the 12z ensemble mean

that means this 18z solution is likely just more on the western envelope of solutions we saw in the 12z ensembles...anyone seen the 18z individual members?

The ensemble mean looks a little faster, hard to tell if it is further east. If it is, the difference is very minimal.

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Probably would have to see the ind. members to know, but it mostly likely is the latest version of our one step forward, two steps backward routine.

It's probably wrong in hanging the s/w back and slower. Everything else lately has been faster than previous or more or less constant on forward speed. But who knows.. if it is seeing something we should see other models do similar later and their results would likely be similar. I wouldn't bet on that though.. we are getting fairly good agreement save a weird run or two.

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