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18Z Model Thread


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by 42 that s/w is a good deal sw compared to 12z.. hmm-- west of euro at same time as well

It's quite a bit drier west of the mountains, has no warm advection if you look at the 850 temps and winds so the only lifting is with the vorticity advection and some low level convergence with the 850 trough.

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I don't like how the northern stream is sliding eastward, reminds me of the GGEM.

it's still early in its evolving gyre tho.. if you still want coastal hope you gotta get the southern wave doing something like this. i would think this run has to be better in that regard.

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That southern PV anomaly has become so weak it really isn't even "phasing" anymore. The increasing flow aloft associated with the northern stream essentially "deforms" the flow field associated with the leftover southern PV/migratory circulation. It is basically almost a remnant circulation with little to no baroclinity associated with it in the upper levels.

Makes sense, thanks for the explaination!

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Hmm, is much better than 12Z. Remarkably close to a good solution. Well, if anyone needed a reason to stay up for 00Z they got it.

Oh my lord, Cape Cod gets trashed according to the 18z. I imagine this could become a MECS if the shortwave slows down about 4-6 hours, it's damn close.

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you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting.....

like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution...

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This isn't so crazy that we are seeing changes 3 days out and those that have made any forgone conclusions already about this storm must not remember anything from past storm tracking. Models are never locked in this far out, plain and simple.

Does that mean we'll get a storm? Not necessarily. But one small deviation here, and one small change there, can still certainly make it happen, and such type changes do happen in this time frame.

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Thanks to you and other pros out there that post here, thank you.. Its like a library of information here..

Excellent post.. Appreciate it..

you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting.....

like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution...

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you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting.....

like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution...

Funny that you mention this, as I was thinking that we've seen some really big changes in both models just from 6 hours ago. Something is causing them, just don't know what it is.

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you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting.....

like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution...

A chance, but small. But still a small chance. A needle thread here for New England.

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