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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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35 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If the wind slows down - already under 30 here.  Prior to this year the latest date for 1st sub-20 was Nov. 15 in 2014.  Other late dates were 11/11 in 2007 and 11/12 in 2018.  All good winters here.  :D
Earliest was Oct. 15 in 2002.  Other early dates are 10/17 in 2009 and 10/19 in 2015.  Not so good winters here.
We'll await what 1st sub-20 on 11/23 or 11/24 means.  Probably nothing

Winds may keep us from making it tonight.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every model and ensemble has it. Early early thought is 4-8” type deal inland . Less coast 

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First snowfall of the season is magical. 99% of us don’t live in fake slope land 

You realize that it's like 5-6 days out still, right? This isn't a 3 day lead time right now.

It's fine to point out the possibility (hell, I linked to my post 4 days ago pointing out the favorability of the pattern for Nov 28-30), but "locking" it in is ridiculous.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You realize that it's like 5-6 days out still, right? This isn't a 3 day lead time right now.

It's fine to point out the possibility (hell, I linked to my post 4 days ago pointing out the favorability of the pattern for Nov 28-30), but "locking" it in is ridiculous.

I’m feeling extremely positive on this one. Like a kid opening up a case of Treehouse Xmas morning 

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I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year.

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5 minutes ago, George001 said:

I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year.

maybe 24-36"?

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10 minutes ago, George001 said:

I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year.

No

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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

What is going on here, GFS takes a fish storm 50 miles west on November 29th and we're talking 4-8"?

GFS is garbage, I don’t even use it for my forecasts. What has me on board for a big storm with the potential to become a slow moving Miller B blizzard in eastern mass next week is what the European and Canadian guidance did. The northern stream dug farther south, and the pattern as a whole trended to becoming more amplified on the recent guidance. The western ridge is over Washington on these recent model runs, if anything that’s a bit west of ideal. Yet the models are still booting the low out to sea. I am of the belief that this is an error, and the models will correct more amplified with the low due to the 500 mb pattern being modeled. There is blocking in place as well, which ups the ceiling if things do break right. 

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9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year.

Didn't you just cancel winter through December?

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had started to give up on Novie, but hopefully my call for accumulating Novie snow in the outlook is saved by the bell

I don’t love WNE for this threat but I like Worcester to your area and up through Central NH.  Definitely another 48 hours of model waffling before any goalposts. 

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26 minutes ago, George001 said:

I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year.

it ain’t it ain’t happening James

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