dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 35 minutes ago, tamarack said: If the wind slows down - already under 30 here. Prior to this year the latest date for 1st sub-20 was Nov. 15 in 2014. Other late dates were 11/11 in 2007 and 11/12 in 2018. All good winters here. Earliest was Oct. 15 in 2002. Other early dates are 10/17 in 2009 and 10/19 in 2015. Not so good winters here. We'll await what 1st sub-20 on 11/23 or 11/24 means. Probably nothing Winds may keep us from making it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every model and ensemble has it. Early early thought is 4-8” type deal inland . Less coast And you wonder why you get disappointed, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: And you wonder why you get disappointed, ha. First snowfall of the season is magical. 99% of us don’t live in fake slope land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every model and ensemble has it. Early early thought is 4-8” type deal inland . Less coast 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: First snowfall of the season is magical. 99% of us don’t live in fake slope land You realize that it's like 5-6 days out still, right? This isn't a 3 day lead time right now. It's fine to point out the possibility (hell, I linked to my post 4 days ago pointing out the favorability of the pattern for Nov 28-30), but "locking" it in is ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 These storms the last few years even went down the crapper inside 24-36hrs, How many forget. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You realize that it's like 5-6 days out still, right? This isn't a 3 day lead time right now. It's fine to point out the possibility (hell, I linked to my post 4 days ago pointing out the favorability of the pattern for Nov 28-30), but "locking" it in is ridiculous. I’m feeling extremely positive on this one. Like a kid opening up a case of Treehouse Xmas morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 18z GFS still says no on Monday but it was a few ticks further west at the surface if you want to say it was some improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GFS still says no on Monday but it was a few ticks further west at the surface if you want to say it was some improvement. Yep slightly more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GFS still says no on Monday but it was a few ticks further west at the surface if you want to say it was some improvement. Like the old days. Gfs OTS.correcting to others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Maybe hazy and leo get themselves some as that s/w goes bonkers over the maritime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 What is going on here, GFS takes a fish storm 50 miles west on November 29th and we're talking 4-8"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, George001 said: I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year. maybe 24-36"? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: What is going on here, GFS takes a fish storm 50 miles west on November 29th and we're talking 4-8"? Who uses the GFS in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, George001 said: I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year. No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, Henry's Weather said: What is going on here, GFS takes a fish storm 50 miles west on November 29th and we're talking 4-8"? GFS is garbage, I don’t even use it for my forecasts. What has me on board for a big storm with the potential to become a slow moving Miller B blizzard in eastern mass next week is what the European and Canadian guidance did. The northern stream dug farther south, and the pattern as a whole trended to becoming more amplified on the recent guidance. The western ridge is over Washington on these recent model runs, if anything that’s a bit west of ideal. Yet the models are still booting the low out to sea. I am of the belief that this is an error, and the models will correct more amplified with the low due to the 500 mb pattern being modeled. There is blocking in place as well, which ups the ceiling if things do break right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, George001 said: I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year. Didn't you just cancel winter through December? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 26.1° with occasional flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Is George Henry M ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Like clockwork, half the driveways suddenly have SUV's with Thule racks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Didn't you just cancel winter through December? I made a big mistake, I looked at the polar vortex forecast and panicked because I saw that it was expected to deepen, but didn’t really dig into the details enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every model and ensemble has it. Early early thought is 4-8” type deal inland . Less coast Good call, you can AAU. *always adjust up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 I had started to give up on Novie, but hopefully my call for accumulating Novie snow in the outlook is saved by the bell 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had started to give up on Novie, but hopefully my call for accumulating Novie snow in the outlook is saved by the bell I don’t love WNE for this threat but I like Worcester to your area and up through Central NH. Definitely another 48 hours of model waffling before any goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had started to give up on Novie, but hopefully my call for accumulating Novie snow in the outlook is saved by the bell Other than the op GFS.which for some reason people now think is good at winter storms . . it’s coming on everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Gefs has more members near the coast than 12z run 12z vs 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: First snowfall of the season is magical. 99% of us don’t live in fake slope land I don’t disagree with any of this, but not sure it’s relevance in making a 4-8” call 6 days out . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, George001 said: I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year. it ain’t it ain’t happening James 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: maybe 24-36"? Only in isolated areas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs has more members near the coast than 12z run 12z vs 18z That would pound here if that's where that slp would end up on the 18z GEFS, But i'd rather see that there saturday ha ha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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