Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 I'd also caution/note, the only thing preventing the 00z operational Euro from doing something similar was it's hurried abandonment/collapse of the NAO wave space argument in the 24 hours preceding. I have looked at the UKMET/GGEM handling of that specific exertion, but ... they may be getting to their solutions erroneously either way - of course. But, when I saw hour 144 off the oper. run I almost gulped form I-95, PHL-PWM ... but then suddenly... the whole axis shifts E - it appeared to me that the sudden collapse out NE of NS/NF in the lower Maritime of Canada may allow the wave -spacing to open up. Doesn't help there's a huge kicker up over MT by D7 but I think that feature suffers from Euro's amplitude wash it applies out in that range as a weird tendency - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Euro is going to have snow here on Sunday...possibly into Monday too...backside energy trying to dive in so we'll see if it goes to town, but even the current solution has light snow falling on Sunday in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 I think its time to fire up the subscription bus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Not quite there as its still off shore, Needs to get better consolidated @H5 but closer on the 12z Euro, 12z GFS says no though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is going to have snow here on Sunday...possibly into Monday too...backside energy trying to dive in so we'll see if it goes to town, but even the current solution has light snow falling on Sunday in SNE. Backside energy is just a tad too late for a strong storm but nothing wrong with light snow this early . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 A step in the right direction on the Euro, still a bit too offshore for the big snows but I like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not quite there as its still off shore, Needs to get better consolidated @H5 but closer on the 12z Euro, 12z GFS says no though. Not the final solution of course....that was close to something a lot better. Verbatim though, prob just some light snow mostly S of pike on that run for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not the final solution of course....that was close to something a lot better. Verbatim though, prob just some light snow mostly S of pike on that run for Sunday. Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow. I just bought my subscription yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow. November 28-30 is pretty much December already. Kind of like how March 1-2 could still be February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Definitely on the worth watching category. Not a figment of George's imagination anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 This will end up further north Watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Snow on the backs of Great Whites heading to the south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: November 28-30 is pretty much December already. Kind of like how March 1-2 could still be February. I get that, but I will get charged for an entire extra month. I doubt they pro rate it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Snow on the backs of Great Whites heading to the south? once bitten, twice shy? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 EPS has my attention for the Sunday/Monday period 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS has my attention for the Sunday/Monday period Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Would be interesting to see how Mac Jones handles the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS has my attention for the Sunday/Monday period 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. Actually pretty decent mean for 6 days out...has measurable snowfall for most of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get that, but I will get charged for an entire extra month. I doubt they pro rate it lol I hear ya completely. Hold off till At least tomorrow or even Thursday to see if this really has some legs for something other than flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 That western ridge is pretty far west, there is some blocking in place, and there is plenty of cold air. On the Euro, the ridge is a bit too flat and positively tilted, but with the North Atlantic blocking in place I do believe that it is likely the models are too progressive with the pattern. Due to the North Atlantic blocking in place, I expect the models to trend more amplified overall. The western ridge has plenty of room to trend more neutral tilted and amplified, which would allow the northern stream to dig more. If that happens and it digs far enough south to phase with southern energy, this storm could turn into a big slow moving Miller B nor’easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS has my attention for the Sunday/Monday period That’s a decent look at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That smaller cluster south of Long Island has my attention, if we see models start trending towards that things will get very interesting quickly… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Actually ..the 00z Euro evolution was more impressive through D6 .. beyond ? not so much. Scoots seaward and doesn't amplify further. This run 12z is less so through D6 additional to that imho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: That smaller cluster south of Long Island has my attention, if we see models start trending towards that things will get very interesting quickly… That next panel had a ton of spread too so it will be several more runs before that gets sorted out, Need to see what happens with the first s/w on the 26th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Would be interesting to see how Mac Jones handles the snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 EPS limits the torch. Hopefully it’s on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I think I’m going to make a rare bet against my favorite team lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Already 29.7F. Chilly night incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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