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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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I'd also caution/note, the only thing preventing the 00z operational Euro from doing something similar was it's hurried abandonment/collapse of the NAO wave space argument in the 24 hours preceding.

I have looked at the UKMET/GGEM handling of that specific exertion, but ... they may be getting to their solutions erroneously either way - of course. 

But, when I saw hour 144 off the oper. run I almost gulped form I-95, PHL-PWM ... but then suddenly... the whole axis shifts E - it appeared to me that the sudden collapse out NE of NS/NF in the lower Maritime of Canada may allow the wave -spacing to open up. 

Doesn't help there's a huge kicker up over MT by D7 but I think that feature suffers from Euro's amplitude wash it applies out in that range as a weird tendency -

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is going to have snow here on Sunday...possibly into Monday too...backside energy trying to dive in so we'll see if it goes to town, but even the current solution has light snow falling on Sunday in SNE.

Backside energy is just a tad too late for a strong storm but nothing wrong with light snow this early .

 

 

619d32310b21c.png

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not quite there as its still off shore, Needs to get better consolidated @H5 but closer on the 12z Euro, 12z GFS says no though.

Not the final solution of course....that was close to something a lot better. Verbatim though, prob just some light snow mostly S of pike on that run for Sunday.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the final solution of course....that was close to something a lot better. Verbatim though, prob just some light snow mostly S of pike on that run for Sunday.

Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow.

I just bought my subscription yesterday 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow.

November 28-30 is pretty much December already. Kind of like how March 1-2 could still be February. 

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That western ridge is pretty far west, there is some blocking in place, and there is plenty of cold air. On the Euro, the ridge is a bit too flat and positively tilted, but with the North Atlantic blocking in place I do believe that it is likely the models are too progressive with the pattern. Due to the North Atlantic blocking in place, I expect the models to trend more amplified overall. The western ridge has plenty of room to trend more neutral tilted and amplified, which would allow the northern stream to dig more. If that happens and it digs far enough south to phase with southern energy, this storm could turn into a big slow moving Miller B nor’easter. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

That smaller cluster south of Long Island has my attention, if we see models start trending towards that things will get very interesting quickly…

That next panel had a ton of spread too so it will be several more runs before that gets sorted out, Need to see what happens with the first s/w on the 26th.

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