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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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16 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Then they had a huge rain event a couple days before Xmas that wiped em out in ‘19 completely. 
 

 And last year(20) they had another good pack, and got wiped out on Xmas day down to nothing.  

 

Even ‘18 got crippled too..but then the day I got there(12/26), they were forecasting a 6-12” storm for that night into the next morning.  And it played out and made all the difference. Without that happening, 2018 would have been un rideable too that week.   

Looked at CAR/Ft. Kent/Van Buren - all 3 had heavy RA on 12/14-15/19, light snow on 12/22 then about 0.2" cold RA on 12/27 before winter returned on NYE.  At my foothills site there was 1.65" in the rainstorm and a nice 6" event on 12/17-18.  That one stayed too far south to help Aroostook.  Other than the small event on 12/27 (which was mostly snow at VB) I can't find the just-before-Christmas event.  I also don't have up to date numbers for southern Aroostook or northern Penobscot.

Last Christmas's Grinch will, one hopes, stand alone for awfulness.  It's my greatest December rainstorm and at 29° AN, the greatest positive departure I've recorded here for any date, slightly ahead of 3/22/12.  CAR was +35 that day.  As bad as it was in those places, the real bummer was for folks watching 20-30" disappear in a few hours.

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30 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looked at CAR/Ft. Kent/Van Buren - all 3 had heavy RA on 12/14-15/19, light snow on 12/22 then about 0.2" cold RA on 12/27 before winter returned on NYE.  At my foothills site there was 1.65" in the rainstorm and a nice 6" event on 12/17-18.  That one stayed too far south to help Aroostook.  Other than the small event on 12/27 (which was mostly snow at VB) I can't find the just-before-Christmas event.  I also don't have up to date numbers for southern Aroostook or northern Penobscot.

Last Christmas's Grinch will, one hopes, stand alone for awfulness.  It's my greatest December rainstorm and at 29° AN, the greatest positive departure I've recorded here for any date, slightly ahead of 3/22/12.  CAR was +35 that day.  As bad as it was in those places, the real bummer was for folks watching 20-30" disappear in a few hours.

Then it was the 15th then?  I remember them getting wiped out before Xmas in ‘19, just seemed a lil closer to Xmas then the 15th..but no recovery before the 26th or 27th was what made me not take the trip.  Thanks for the clarification…but the outcome for any sledding was still the same result, a big No Go. Lol. 

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just wait until you get scarred by a whole winter of that like 2015-16.

Worst snow winter I've had here, but a lot worse in VT, especially the northern half.  However, for a one-event scenario, 12/25/20 is incredibly anomalous.  Van Buren was 41° AN for that event.  Not many 40+ departures out there.

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Worst snow winter I've had here, but a lot worse in VT, especially the northern half.  However, for a one-event scenario, 12/25/20 is incredibly anomalous.  Van Buren was 41° AN for that event.  Not many 40+ departures out there.

Yup..that’s amazing to say the least. Which again wiped em out lmao.  So hoping this year in December, they avoid anything even remotely close to that.  Thanks for the info..appreciated. 

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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Being it’s Tuesday, and we’re talking next Monday(6 days out), I doubt guidance is handling everything correctly at this lead.  We keep an eye.
 

Liking the prolonged colder scenario too. 

Yeah...that storm system as modeled is probably too close to us. Expect it to shift further away. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Low of 22, still 26 here now. Cold day.

Yeah, still 24° at home.  Nice, moderate snow shower on 89 as I drove into the office a little while ago.  That streamer that JSpin and PF were discussing a few days ago is in effect again.  Seems to following 89 pretty closely as it drops off pretty quickly as you move away from the interstate.

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I wouldn't be tossing anything in this volatile pattern.

And by volatile, ...not so much the embedded features and handling - per se - but the determinism is whack right now, big time.

The PNA is transiently bubble sorting its self out around camel hump that ends up going back neg head ( but will probably fail to some degree ) out there around Dec 7.  

Meanwhile, the NAO mirrors around similar timing.

Those mass-field yo-yo impose exertion on the flow for/feed-back from embedded features, but the models exert on themselves with huge error proneness in that emerges from handling - 

I mean the models are much better than circa ...2002 .. But, almost as a comical plot by a super agency ( muah hahahaha ) the planetary system is in CC turmoil ...featuring among other charms... tendencies for fast flow. Those are notoriously bad regardless of era  - including now.  

This is +PNA is not huge N-S in stature, but does carry potency in S/W intervals to help add to space and momentum complexity.   Kind of has some 'unmanned firehose' aspects to it.

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When there is a Miller B that has been showing up off and on on the European and Canadian guidance, that’s worth keeping an eye on. Miller Bs are usually very tough to forecast due to minor changes with the northern stream energy thousands of miles away right now resulting in big shifts on the models with the storm. It isn’t super high probability, but if it does hit this would be the type of storm to pop up out of nowhere.

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