November Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its really to bad none of us live there.

Looks great at H5!

Famous last words...

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I mean...I'll certainly take my chances with this ridge trough pattern across the CONUS:

Pump up those heights out west, A little more ridging out ahead of the s/w and could get fun.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks great at H5!

Famous last words...

How many times too over the years we've seen this..............

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Pump up those heights out west, aAlittle more ridging out ahead of the s/w and could get fun.

If we get to Wednesday and it looks good, then I will need to push the subscribe button....otherwise, I am holding firm to 12/1.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get to Wednesday and it looks good, then I will need to push the subscribe button....otherwise, I am holding firm to 12/1.

Yeah, I would like to see you have to hit it up.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I would like to see you have to hit it up.

Yup, me too. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, me too. 

County might be inline for there first shot.

[Hoth]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You know me. We always worry 

That's what IPA is for.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's what IPA is for.

Exactly. Takes the worry away. And it’s always snowy 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

County might be inline for there first shot.

Yes sir, I was thinking the same thing. I got a trip booked for 12/26, so I’m hoping to get up there and get some riding in then.  Couldn’t go the last two December’s…they got grinched out ‘19 and ‘20.   Last December I got there was ‘18. And if they didn’t get a 10”er the night I got there, it wouldn’t have happened in ‘18 either. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Surprised no one's talking about this. Really nice western ridge ahead of this with cold supply in the east 

Classic phase change in the tellies as well. -NAO/AO rising, + PNA 

Probably because there's a lot of destructive wave spacing/interference ... That dig into the MA also looks like it comes from typical Euro tendency to arbitrarily apply amplitude on D5+'s.  

It may be entirely true that something comes of that time frame, but there are plenty of reasons to be leery of that thing.  Aside, the details of the QPF charts show most of that misses E by a narrow margin ( as is..)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir, I was thinking the same thing. I got a trip booked for 12/26, so I’m hoping to get up there and get some riding in then.  Couldn’t go the last two December’s…they got grinched out ‘19 and ‘20.   Last December I got there was ‘18. And if they didn’t get a 10”er the night I got there, it wouldn’t have happened in ‘18 either. 

You will be good to go this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably because there's a lot of destructive wave spacing/interference ... That dig into the MA also looks like it comes from typical Euro tendency to apply amplitude on D5+.  

It may be entirely true that something comes of that time frame, but there are plenty of reasons to be leery of that thing.  Aside, the details of the QPF charts show most of that misses E by a narrow margin ( as is..)

Yea, I am not optimistic.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You will be good to go this year.

I’m hoping you’re right Ray…I’m pulling for ya. 
 

They had plenty of snow the last two Decembers, but got rained out completely on Xmas eve and day last year, and in ‘19 a couple days prior to Xmas.  Sucked. 

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Bristol stool sample-how’s that?

Personally I vote for Billerica Stool Chart but that’s just me. Let’s leave the Bristol’s of the world out of the fecal judgement business.

[Go Kart Mozart]

45 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I mean...I'll certainly take my chances with this ridge trough pattern across the CONUS:

In the old days we would look for the ridge apex to be in line with the Chimney of Idaho.  That would give this some more room for maneuver.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

In the old days we would look for the ridge apex to be in line with the Chimney of Idaho.  That would give this some more room for maneuver.

Yup. That’s why this is only close at the moment…and no cigar.  
 

Like others have said, let’s see if it’s still there tomorrow, and especially Wednesday? 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, me too. 

 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

County might be inline for there first shot.

Snow is always good but there is enough flowing water that I would like to see some good cold to really start freezing things up before we get too much

[dryslot]

36 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

Snow is always good but there is enough flowing water that I would like to see some good cold to really start freezing things up before we get too much

"We" would all like to see that scenario, But it does not happen that often that we freeze everything up before the snow falls.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

In the old days we would look for the ridge apex to be in line with the Chimney of Idaho.  That would give this some more room for maneuver.

Interesting.....it's crap like this that I enjoy. The one about the latitude for where the shortwave comes ashore on the west coast is where it exits the east coast.

[George001]

The Euro, Canadian, and Navy show a storm threat (though none are big hits), the gfs doesnt have a low. Gfs is garbage, it’s probably wrong. It may not snow, it is November after all so a lot of things have to go right, but I do expect there to at least be a storm. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Interesting.....it's crap like this that I enjoy. The one about the latitude for where the shortwave comes ashore on the west coast is where it exits the east coast.

I follow that and it ends up many times happening

[40/70 Benchmark]

The one about Idaho is true...that is the optimal ridge position on average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Euro, Canadian, and Navy show a storm threat (though none are big hits), the gfs doesnt have a low. Gfs is garbage, it’s probably wrong. It may not snow, it is November after all so a lot of things have to go right, but I do expect there to at least be a storm. 

The GFS has been the best model this fall.

[dryslot]

 18z GFS on the 26-27 system is going to produce it seems for NNE.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The GFS has been the best model this fall.

Yeah I’m not thrilled with the euro. 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The GFS has been the best model this fall.

Yea, the Euro keeps pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range. It’s been pretty bad

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m hoping you’re right Ray…I’m pulling for ya. 
 

They had plenty of snow the last two Decembers, but got rained out completely on Xmas eve and day last year, and in ‘19 a couple days prior to Xmas.  Sucked. 

12/2019 had a nice pack up there early in the month but the RA on 14-15 wrecked it.  Then it was mostly dry until NYE.

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

12/2019 had a nice pack up there early in the month but the RA on 14-15 wrecked it.  Then it was mostly dry until NYE.

Then they had a huge rain event a couple days before Xmas that wiped em out in ‘19 completely. 
 

 And last year(20) they had another good pack, and got wiped out on Xmas day down to nothing.  

 

Even ‘18 got crippled too..but then the day I got there(12/26), they were forecasting a 6-12” storm for that night into the next morning.  And it played out and made all the difference. Without that happening, 2018 would have been un rideable too that week.   

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Then they had a huge rain event a couple days before Xmas that wiped em out in ‘19 completely. 
 

 And last year(20) they had another good pack, and got wiped out on Xmas day down to nothing.  

 

Even ‘18 got crippled too..but then the day I got there(12/26), they were forecasting a 6-12” storm for that night into the next morning.  And it played out and made all the difference. Without that happening, 2018 would have been un rideable too that week.   

To bad last year, We were building up a good pack until the grinch storm wiped it out, That was one of the worst ones i had ever seen too, The rest of winter ended up being a dud here.