Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 11/22/21, Happy Halloween 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Oh oh. Here comes euro for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh oh. Here comes euro for Monday. Surprised no one's talking about this. Really nice western ridge ahead of this with cold supply in the east Classic phase change in the tellies as well. -NAO/AO rising, + PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh oh. Here comes euro for Monday. That is dam close to a good one, 984mb @41/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That is dam close to a good one. Yeah not bad. Some members showing this. Maybe something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Surprised no one's talking about this. Really nice western ridge ahead of this with cold supply in the east Rising NAO High chance of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not bad. Some members showing this. Maybe something to watch. Went negative a little to far east this run except it would scrape the coastal areas and DE Maine but the air mass looks like it would support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah not bad. Some members showing this. Maybe something to watch. This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rising NAO High chance of a storm Ridge has to sharpen a bit or shift further west to allow storm to ramp up near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier). Yeah, S/W really dives SE. Hopefully this has legs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier). Right now its well to the east on the GFS for the 28-29th as it looks more focused on the first wave on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. That would also lend to a more potent low as well so you could get an offset as it wraps in some colder air but it still far out to get into any finer details if it even remains on the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. This is true, but I am far enough from the ocean that I will take the tradeoff for the increased baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. Water temps like 52 vs 49 or so will always be problematic. In general, you need a decent antecedent airmass or having winds stay more nrly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is true, but I am far enough from the ocean that I will take the tradeoff for the increased baroclinicity. First we need a colder pattern .. then we need a storm . Right now we have neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: First we need a colder pattern .. then we need a storm . Right now we have neither Its fine...if its still like this in a month, then worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its fine...if its still like this in a month, then worry. You know me. We always worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 While typical early-season stipulations apply, the antecendent airmass is pretty anomalously cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just hope to avoid freezing rain as much as possible. Extremely dangerous for me being handicapped. Already worried about getting the mail this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Enjoy the 12 hours of warm sector. I may turn the water back on for one last outdoor shower! If some of these storms cut as advertised, we're going to get decent sectors...perhaps a few days. Hopefully the atmospheric river too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 I mean...I'll certainly take my chances with this ridge trough pattern across the CONUS: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I mean...I'll certainly take my chances with this ridge trough pattern across the CONUS: To my untrained eyes that looks like a Miller B to me. Is that correct or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, George001 said: To my untrained eyes that looks like a Miller B to me. Is that correct or am I mistaken? Correct. These type of events kind of reappear on modeling in the day 4-6 range so we'll see if it has legs. That was damn close on the euro though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, George001 said: To my untrained eyes that looks like a Miller B to me. Is that correct or am I mistaken? I’d say no..cuz you don’t have a redevelopment from what I’m seeing. But that’s not a surface map either….so I could be completely wrong. But that’s a very nice 500mb look for sure. A lot of energy dropping into the trough. We’ll Take our chances with that all day long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I’d say no..cuz you don’t have a redevelopment from what I’m seeing. But that’s not a surface nap either….so I could be completely wrong. But that’s a very nice 500mb look for sure. Take your chances with that all day long. I think we've had a surface nap all month long, despite some H5 excitement from time to time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 The Canadian is really close as well, if the northern branch digs just a little more it would have likely phased with the southern branch. We need the blocking to strengthen a bit, if it does this storm has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: If some of these storms cut as advertised, we're going to get decent sectors...perhaps a few days. Hopefully the atmospheric river too If not you can get a hemispheric all beef................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we've had a surface nap all month long, despite some H5 excitement from time to time. Ahhh good one. I corrected it when I reread it right after I posted it. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’d say no..cuz you don’t have a redevelopment from what I’m seeing. But that’s not a surface map either….so I could be completely wrong. But that’s a very nice 500mb look for sure. A lot of energy dropping into the trough. We’ll Take our chances with that all day long. Its really to bad none of us live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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