November Discussion

[klw]

49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh my Gaud….with the leaves still on the trees and all…

snapped  limbs and widespread damage imminent.  Oh wait, sky is blue and sun  is blinding me at my desk now.  disaster averted

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow shower here currently 

[tamarack]

Heavier stuff all staying to my south.  Not that 20 flakes is all that much better than the 4-5 I saw earlier.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow shower here currently 

It’s like clockwork-you post snowless November and it snows within 24 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

The pattern is definitely trying to become favorable for a threat somewhere in that Nov 28-30 time frame. Nice little PV-lobe is trying to get forced underneath the -NAO after T-day which sets the stage for a shortwave to run into that cold air supply...aided by a little PNA ridge popping out west at the same time.

Tip has been mentioning this symbiotic relationship between the NAO tanking and the PNA rising....and maybe this is finally the models "seeing" the correction event. We're still a long ways out, but it is a period to keep an eye on.

[MJO812]

All 3 major models have  the storm during this time frame. 1st legit threat to watch especially for the interior?

 

[dryslot]

Like Will said, The 28-30th holds some promise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is the first valid threat....main risk is suppression, but decent shot at measurable and maybe plowable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is the damn smoking gun that may force my subscriptions before December.

I almost made it...

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the first valid threat....main risk is suppression, but decent shot at measurable and maybe plowable.

Northern stream almost caught up

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s like clockwork-you post snowless November and it snows within 24 hours.

We need stickage 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Northern stream almost caught up

May need a blog this weekend.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's the EPS....you can see how the longwave pattern is pretty decent synoptically for a threat....you obviously need the details to work out, but the larger pieces are there.....

You have your -NAO forcing the PV lobe under it into 50/50 low position while you have the main trough axis still back in the center of the CONUS and a nice PNA ridge to help amplify anything diving into that trough. Still a long shot but it's at least a compelling setup.

 

 

[Cold Miser]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow shower here currently 

Congrats.  Get the snow blower out.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the EPS....you can see how the longwave pattern is pretty decent synoptically for a threat....you obviously need the details to work out, but the larger pieces are there.....

You have your -NAO forcing the PV lobe under it into 50/50 low position while you have the main trough axis still back in the center of the CONUS and a nice PNA ridge to help amplify anything diving into that trough. Still a long shot but it's at least a compelling setup.

 

 

Yeah agreed - this is basically the gist of my inability to keep it brief - haha..

seriously though, word.    +PNA/-NAO tandem.

I agree with Ray re suppression .. but, I am also seeing a tendency past D6 to 'relax' the isohypses counts from TX to the southern tip of J Bay... that helps to alleviate the negative interference should that paint reality -

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

All 3 major models have  the storm during this time frame. 1st legit threat to watch especially for the interior?

 

Looks like a Miller b that transferred off the lower mid atlantic coast. There is North Atlantic blocking in place and while it’s not deep cold, there is enough cold for a big storm if things line up. Due to the time of year, it’s going to be a long shot. If we see this setup in January however, watch out. That’s a Jan 2011 like pattern. Yes, that means multiple blizzards. Even if this threat doesn’t work out, the pattern is loaded so there will be more chances after that.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like a Miller b that transferred off the lower mid atlantic coast. There is North Atlantic blocking in place and while it’s not deep cold, there is enough cold for a big storm if things line up. Due to the time of year, it’s going to be a long shot. If we see this setup in January however, watch out. That’s a Jan 2011 like pattern. Yes, that means multiple blizzards. Even if this threat doesn’t work out, the pattern is loaded so there will be more chances after that.

The start of January is 6 weeks away, nothing like getting ahead one’s self…jeez.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First flakes in Wilmington, despite being 48...must be cold aloft.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the EPS....you can see how the longwave pattern is pretty decent synoptically for a threat....you obviously need the details to work out, but the larger pieces are there.....

You have your -NAO forcing the PV lobe under it into 50/50 low position while you have the main trough axis still back in the center of the CONUS and a nice PNA ridge to help amplify anything diving into that trough. Still a long shot but it's at least a compelling setup.

 

 

Nice map....if I had to pick something, I would like the PNA ridge a bit further east, but given the block, that probably isn't as inportant....just need to get it up the coast. 

[Greg]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First flakes in Wilmington, despite being 48...must be cold aloft.

Just saw that to. First trace. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

First T here.  Chilly and raw

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First flakes in Wilmington, despite being 48...must be cold aloft.

Ice pellets in Newburyport earlier, they came down sideways

[Ginx snewx]

20 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve moved away from loud, smelly, costly, and high maintenance outdoor equipment and have gone all battery. I have this:

https://www.homedepot.com/p/RYOBI-40V-Whisper-Series-145-MPH-625-CFM-Cordless-Battery-Backpack-Leaf-Blower-with-5-0-Ah-Battery-and-Charger-RY40440/306706763

Nice. I am all battery on everything now except the generator and snowblower 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A decent snow shower/graupel in Gardner MA this evening 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If course the last 30% of foliage came down today, the after I raked for 8 hours

[Dan76]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice. I am all battery on everything now except the generator and snowblower 

I think Sthil makes some top of the line ET

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

I think Sthil makes some top of the line ET

Yep

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If course the last 30% of foliage came down today, the after I raked for 8 hours

The rain last night just annihilated oaks. Ugh

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The rain last night just annihilated oaks. Ugh

It was windy today

[Damage In Tolland]

Finally got a freeze. 27.9

This is the end… my beautiful friend .