November Discussion

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of times we just end up getting prolonged CAD on cutters....then a brief warm sector. Probably not happening next week, but then again it's only November. Much rarer for it to happen deeper into winter.

ICE

[dendrite]

It's awesome out.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The AK vortex rarely has a short stay though. If we spot it in late fall…we should prep for an unwelcomed extended visit like a MIL during the holidays. 

Yes.   But there’s been no evidence of more than a few day stay.  It seems to me in a somewhat transient pattern we have to hang onto our hats and see how it settles in mid December.

[PhineasC]

50 and sunny.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

deny the pragmatics of auto-dissing ...

Seriously, who here dares to deny the pragmatics of auto-dissing?

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yes.   But there’s been no evidence of more than a few day stay.  It seems to me in a somewhat transient pattern we have to hang onto our hats and see how it settles in mid December.

Yeah I always get a little nervous seeing it show up, but what I get most nervous about is seeing no signs of it really going away....and we're not at the latter stage yet. The ensembles do appear to try and start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge late in the game. In addition, the vortex first shows up at a time when we have strong -NAO blocking so we actually don't get brutally torched. This occasionally has happened in the past like late Dec 2008/early Jan 2009....had a temporary little one-eyed pig but we happened to build a huge NAO block during the 8-12 days it hung around so we got 2 winter wx events anyway (12/31/08 and 1/7-8/09). The vortex then eroded, replaced by a ridge, and we froze our balls off the rest of that month.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Actually, there is data/science behind it. If the Pig sets up in late fall, it tends to linger into winter. 

Perhaps I should have said: I don’t think it’s setting up.  Transient stay for a few days to me isn’t setting up. 
 

And, Is there science behind a huge mega block -NAO happening in late fall, and it  coming back during winter too?  That’s an interesting question to ask too? 

[Sugarloaf1989]

68F, ick.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

68F, ick.

It’s only one day.  I’m liking it myself. But wouldn’t want it lasting for a week at this time of the year. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Beautiful Mid-November day 65 degrees, very breezy but mild. 

those who want 43 and sunny on days like today baffle me. Enjoy the warmth during the season it usually doesn't snow anyway. 

 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s only one day.  I’m liking it myself. But wouldn’t want it lasting for a week at this time of the year. 

Closing in on December and I've only gone through 1/4 tank of heating oil. 

[PhineasC]

52 under full sun, I guess the mega torch is staying south.

[Sugarloaf1989]

My part of town is about 80% bare, but I still have foliage color on 11/18. Never seen that before this late in November. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

45 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My part of town is about 80% bare, but I still have foliage color on 11/18. Never seen that before this late in November. 

For whatever reason, the damn Norway maples just won’t let go of their leaves this year.

[tamarack]

53 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

52 under full sun, I guess the mega torch is staying south.

Mid 40s under full clouds.  CAD can be either good or bad.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The pig begins to retrograde off the set near the end of the euro run.

[Sugarloaf1989]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

For whatever reason, the damn Norway maples just won’t let go of their leaves this year.

Those trees in the picture are Sugar Maples. Actually today it's about 95% bare in town. 

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My part of town is about 80% bare, but I still have foliage color on 11/18. Never seen that before this late in November. 

Prett much bare here…except for some oaks, and they are going fast now too. It all depends on the location..some have quite a bit left, some almost nothing.  

[dendrite]

MHT/CON/ASH 70F

Tooooorch

[dendrite]

The CON record for the date is 71F in 1953. It'll be close...maybe a tie.

[Typhoon Tip]

It really is almost comical looking at this operational 12z Euro ...  timing just has to be that much off.

I mean I know some of you don't take this stuff very seriously or ... believe it's even true in some cases, but these

Tend to cause these ...

*NOT* that busted ravioli the 12z individual runs seemingly are parameterized, before they even run, to on-purpose ... f*ck up potential.  Amazing the proficiency in which they execute nothing. LOL

Yeah, such is the way though.  It'd be funny if this come around to a more meaningful ordeal ...

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It really is almost comical looking at this operational 12z Euro ...  timing just has to be that much off.

I mean I know some of you don't take this stuff very seriously or ... believe it's even true in some cases, but these

Tend to cause these ...

*NOT* that busted ravioli the 12z individual runs seemingly are parameterized, before they even run, to on-purpose ... f*ck up potential.  Amazing the proficiency in which the execute nothing. LOL

Yeah, such is the way though.  It'd be funny if this come around to a more meaningful ordeal ...

All the models aren't enthused with a storm

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models aren't enthused with a storm

that's why I said at the bottom, "12z individual runs.."  ?

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies also think the AK vortex is transient....quick Aleutian ridge spikes and we are into a classic Nina gradient pattern by 2nd week of December according to them.

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models aren't enthused with a storm

Imo This is possibly gonna just pop up on most guidance when the OP runs finally recognizes the block, and how it plays into the scenario.    

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies also think the AK vortex is transient....quick Aleutian ridge spikes and we are into a classic Nina gradient pattern by 2nd week of December according to them.

I'm getting to Vail on December 9. Just a nightmare pattern out there for the next 2 weeks. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I'm getting to Vail on December 9. Just a nightmare pattern out there for the next 2 weeks. 

Yeah that looks tough....hopefully they get blitzed after like 12/5 as more western troughing takes hold. Sometimes it only takes one monster system out there to fix a couple bad weeks.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Imo This is possibly gonna just pop up on most guidance when the OP runs finally recognizes the block, and how it plays into the scenario.    

Not a bad hypothesis...

I think also the fact that at D4 ( 96 hours off 12z. ..) we can see the initial -NAO is pretty east based over that Islandic limb/region of the domain?  Then, as the +PNA loads the trough east, there is height response over the western limb, and that more than less triggers the retrograde of the NAO blocking to reposition west by D8 or so... Across the differentiating span of time, that's kind of going with your suggestion there - I mentioned earlier, some of this forcing is emergent ... - and things materialize differently "if"/when that gets sampled

[weathafella]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies also think the AK vortex is transient....quick Aleutian ridge spikes and we are into a classic Nina gradient pattern by 2nd week of December according to them.

Those spikes as long as they keep happening is a good cold seeder in Canada which is helpful.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My part of town is about 80% bare, but I still have foliage color on 11/18. Never seen that before this late in November. 

Earlier today I was in the Framingham, Wayland, Weston area. Remarkable how many trees still had leaves with bright color.  More fitting for late October.