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November Discussion


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18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Op runs ftl. Let’s see why the ensembles show? 

Ensembles trended worse too....the block in the Atlantic keeps us from torching, but we don't need this to keep trending worse as we head into December. The EPS do try to pop a bit of PNA ridging again at very end of Nov and near 12/1, but the lower heights up in AK persist.

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Heh... I wouldn't dismiss that next week...

This you have to understand, the evolution of that is after a pattern change- in fact, happens as a result of it.  A PNA switching modes with/while a falling NAO means that, whether the operational runs really want to get with the program and paint pretty pictures or not.  

In effect, ... it's like trying to see what is on the other side of the wall - it's a system that has to emerge as much as be tracked, and that former aspect doesn't lend to even seeing it very well.

This strikes me as a 'medium' opportunity for nearer term reassertion  ... I'd keep it on the back burner.  You flip modes ... you flip out .. usually.  I mean not always - can certainly move through the sequencing and not coalesce something to follow. It happens, but its far too early to assess that as happening.

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles trended worse too....the block in the Atlantic keeps us from torching, but we don't need this to keep trending worse as we head into December. The EPS do try to pop a bit of PNA ridging again at very end of Nov and near 12/1, but the lower heights up in AK persist.

So perhaps it was just a pipe dream after all..since as we’re getting closer to the end of the month things all of a sudden are heading in the wrong direction now….

then again tomorrow it can all change yet again?   

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... I wouldn't dismiss that next week...

This you have to understand, the evolution of that is after a pattern change- in fact, happens as a result of it.  A PNA switching modes with/while a falling NAO means that, whether the operational runs really want to get with the program and paint pretty pictures or not.  

In effect, ... it's like trying to see what is on the other side of the wall - it's a system that has to emerge as much as be tracked, and that former aspect doesn't lend to even seeing it very well.

This strikes me as a 'medium' opportunity for nearer term reassertion  ... I'd keep it on the back burner.  You flip modes ... you flip out .. usually.  I mean not always - can certainly move through the sequencing and not coalesce something to follow. It happens, but its far too early to assess that as happening.

I agree. I said going into the month that we had a greater than climo shot at significant snows, but that doesn't mean it has to pan out, and odds are still against this doing the deed HERE. Somewhere.....more likely, sure.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The great December pattern 

It's only 11/17....this is more for the pattern at the end of November....we could easily reload a good December pattern a week to 10 days into the month. The T-day weekend pattern doesn't look as cold though for sure right now.

 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn’t look too bad yet as we have amplitude vs a massive 2011 trough from AK to Arizona. I think interior anyways has chances there. Barring it doesn’t get worse. 

Think one of the reasons why we lost the better +pna look that models had a few days ago is because they are picking up on another big pac jet extension. The jet extension is trying to push against the ridge along west coast flattening it out.

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