ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Op runs ftl. Let’s see why the ensembles show? Ensembles trended worse too....the block in the Atlantic keeps us from torching, but we don't need this to keep trending worse as we head into December. The EPS do try to pop a bit of PNA ridging again at very end of Nov and near 12/1, but the lower heights up in AK persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck. I never had any interest in that...maybe you can pull off something. Mostly just want to avoid the atmospheric river BS around yet another holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's an ugly end to the OP Euro run with a nice one-eyed pig setting up over the Bering Region...hopefully that changes again. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Heh... I wouldn't dismiss that next week... This you have to understand, the evolution of that is after a pattern change- in fact, happens as a result of it. A PNA switching modes with/while a falling NAO means that, whether the operational runs really want to get with the program and paint pretty pictures or not. In effect, ... it's like trying to see what is on the other side of the wall - it's a system that has to emerge as much as be tracked, and that former aspect doesn't lend to even seeing it very well. This strikes me as a 'medium' opportunity for nearer term reassertion ... I'd keep it on the back burner. You flip modes ... you flip out .. usually. I mean not always - can certainly move through the sequencing and not coalesce something to follow. It happens, but its far too early to assess that as happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles trended worse too....the block in the Atlantic keeps us from torching, but we don't need this to keep trending worse as we head into December. The EPS do try to pop a bit of PNA ridging again at very end of Nov and near 12/1, but the lower heights up in AK persist. So perhaps it was just a pipe dream after all..since as we’re getting closer to the end of the month things all of a sudden are heading in the wrong direction now…. then again tomorrow it can all change yet again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 It's a Cheech & Chong-style one-eyed snake over Alaska! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 It’s all slipping away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Doesn’t look too bad yet as we have amplitude vs a massive 2011 trough from AK to Arizona. I think interior anyways has chances there. Barring it doesn’t get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 You guys are nuts lol. It’s not that bad. Just don’t want it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all slipping away We never had it to begin with lol..it was all fantasy. As Scott said…it doesn’t look that bad..just not as good as it did yesterday. You know the drill, we’re just messing around. It’s all good whatever.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 glad to see the models trended better. Hope that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... I wouldn't dismiss that next week... This you have to understand, the evolution of that is after a pattern change- in fact, happens as a result of it. A PNA switching modes with/while a falling NAO means that, whether the operational runs really want to get with the program and paint pretty pictures or not. In effect, ... it's like trying to see what is on the other side of the wall - it's a system that has to emerge as much as be tracked, and that former aspect doesn't lend to even seeing it very well. This strikes me as a 'medium' opportunity for nearer term reassertion ... I'd keep it on the back burner. You flip modes ... you flip out .. usually. I mean not always - can certainly move through the sequencing and not coalesce something to follow. It happens, but its far too early to assess that as happening. I agree. I said going into the month that we had a greater than climo shot at significant snows, but that doesn't mean it has to pan out, and odds are still against this doing the deed HERE. Somewhere.....more likely, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all slipping away You guys are swinging too wildly to extremes....it still looks okay moving ahead. Odds are never great at plowing in November around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 There really wasn't anything to slide away from as we have not had anything yet to lose but i tossed Paul Simon in there anyways........lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all slipping away No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You guys are swinging too wildly to extremes....it still looks okay moving ahead. Odds are never great at plowing in November around here. Scooter and Will are both one bad EPS run away from pulling the plug. You can read them 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scooter and Will are both one bad EPS run away from pulling the plug. You can read them Pulling the plug on what? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Let the Mayhem begin. Already have Cliff jumpers and the season hasn't even started. That's okay, less people freaking out during the actual winter months. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pulling the plug on what? The great December pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Thank goodness for the NAO block but honestly that will also need help to persist with that Pacific. But I've seen way worse in the Pacific so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The great December pattern It's only 11/17....this is more for the pattern at the end of November....we could easily reload a good December pattern a week to 10 days into the month. The T-day weekend pattern doesn't look as cold though for sure right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Let the Mayhem begin. Already have Cliff jumpers and the season hasn't even started. That's okay, less people freaking out during the actual winter months. LOL Schizophrenia season has begun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pulling the plug on what? His sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: His sanity Can't pull the plug on something you've never had 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, mreaves said: Can't pull the plug on something you've never had Cuts like a knife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's only 11/17....this is more for the pattern at the end of November....we could easily reload a good December pattern a week to 10 days into the month. The T-day weekend pattern doesn't look as cold though for sure right now. Was hoping that Sat snower would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Gfs is west for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Mostly just want to avoid the atmospheric river BS around yet another holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t look too bad yet as we have amplitude vs a massive 2011 trough from AK to Arizona. I think interior anyways has chances there. Barring it doesn’t get worse. Think one of the reasons why we lost the better +pna look that models had a few days ago is because they are picking up on another big pac jet extension. The jet extension is trying to push against the ridge along west coast flattening it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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