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November Discussion


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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna need the good Atlantic look to stay on track....PAC side has trended worse for sure. But that NAO block can make up for a lot of sins if we can get it.

That block could be just fantasy too being 10 plus days out.  Let’s hope it’s legit…or the wait for any winter weather will go on. Which we all know is not uncommon for late November/early December.  But it’d be nice to get on the board come the end of November. 

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27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That block could be just fantasy too being 10 plus days out.  Let’s hope it’s legit…or the wait for any winter weather will go on. Which we all know is not uncommon for late November/early December.  But it’d be nice to get on the board come the end of November. 

Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that.

I see 3 threats from 11/24 to First week in Dec. Hopefully 1 works out

index (26).png

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that.

Yea, its not vanishing art this point.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that.

Thanks for the explanation, it’s appreciated. :D

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I see 3 threats from 11/24 to First week in Dec. Hopefully 1 works out

index (26).png

Yeah im skeptical of next week's storm mid-week, though I guess if it gets captured perfectly we could have a surprise. It feels like that 11/27-11/30 window might be a little more favorable for this month but things can shift. I'm hopeful the -NAO can go into the first half of December as well because the Pacific doesn't look great to start December, however, because there was already some good cold into Canada, a decent -NAO would suffice for threats.

The PAC look has been really volatile the past few days though, so that's something that will probably change on future runs.

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as of last night's EPS/GEFies, they signal lower Greenland as the -NAO apex. But, 3 days ago it was more westerly oriented, while since then I have also seen it more east toward Iceland. Matters for whatever gets sent east from out west, and encounters any exertion from the NAO. 

Faster than normal flow, alters the standard model for how the NAO blocking 'exerts a backward force' in the field, too. 

The NAO modes really are described by the non-linear wave function transmitted downstream out of the momentum/dispersion of the Pacific Rossby signal.   Good luck anyone understanding what that means... But, the Pacific is relaying a flattish +PNA expression; that changes the landscape .  I still suggest a flatter wave - albeit still of potency - gets ejected.  The speed in the flow doesn't lend to steeply plumbed meridian structures. 

The general stochastic/bad performance in handling NAO to begin with. I agree with Will - it's not likely just some operational canard. The reason is, there is a timed lag/distribution argument in the statistics that proceed -NAO's ... It is varied by the +PNA "resonance," based on wave spacing and amplitude from Tokyo to Boston really.  

I saw someone's snark there but ... I do wonder if in 1950, that 06z GFS NAO -related Rex structure isn't en mass situated S by 10 latitude.

I'm not skeptical of there being a storm.  The mass field/synoptic restoring system resulting is going to be hard to escape from happening... whether it is stuff of dreams or something uninspired is 'nother tail.

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Definitely more sun than usual, I think.

Yes and no.    We’ve had days and days of wet dank but lately sunnier.   Although on most of the sunny days here there has been hours of cloudiness.   But yes normally November is darker and more depressing but as winter nears excitement builds.  

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yes and no.    We’ve had days and days of wet dank but lately sunnier.   Although on most of the sunny days here there has been hours of cloudiness.   But yes normally November is darker and more depressing but as winter nears excitement builds.  

Yeah, I think WNE has had a few more sunners than you Eastern folks.

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS and Canadian pretty much say hit the snooze button until at least end of month. 

I don't know why I even look at models,  when I can tell the tenor of the latest run,  by how infrequently Anthony posts.

Seems volatile though from run to run…very changeable as we would expect 7-10 days out.  So things can pop/change as we close in. 

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58 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Definitely more sun than usual, I think.

Definitely true for here.  So far I've recorded 7 sunny, 7 PC and 2 cloudy days this month and today will be PC (sun morn, clouds aft).  Never have had more than 8 sunny days in any of our 23 Novembers; never had more sunny days than cloudy.

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I am perfectly ok with us not getting heavy Snow at this point.  Winter ( Meteorological that is ) doesn't officially start until December.  And.. There is some truth to having a lack luster Winter of we get Snow to early here in Southern New England.  I am patiently waiting and positively optimistic for a good Winter for us here. Time will tell. Trying not to exaust myself to early with worrying about a storm ( Snow ) for early next week.

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