November Discussion

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Enjoy the dry, cold weather.

At least it would be cold.

[Spanks45]

48⁰ with some sun and a breeze, feels like a typical November day....just saw this though, they seem a bit confused.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

there is snow in the zones up here but nothing that interesting in the discussion, though I read it quickly.  In 13 years living here Dendriteland, we usually don't get snow that becomes a permanent snowpack until mid December, but usually we get accumulating snow in November at some point

We average nearly 90"/year but in 23 Novembers here, 8 have produced less than 2", 5 less than 1", and only 4 have reached double digits.  Average is 4.9" but 17 of 23 came in BN.  (Balanced by months like the 23.4" of 11/18.)

[Chrisrotary12]

Let's lock in the 297 hr GFS shall we?

[George001]

The models have a great setup for the Nov 25th window, strong North Atlantic blocking developing with the La Niña induced active northern branch digging south. That has the potential to develop into a Miller B. The chances of a major storm are very high, the risk (especially in eastern Mass) is that the cold air supply is limited. We will need the low to undergo rapid cyclogenesis about 200-300 miles southeast of where it’s modeled on the european guidance to get a major snowstorm in eastern mass. I am expecting in my area for this to be a big rainstorm, but it could be big for areas north and west. It also looks like the start of a great pattern heading into December, this pattern with more cold air in place has a lot of potential. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I shutter when i hear a beast -NAO block.

Says the man that had a Feb '69 snow map for an avatar at one point. lol

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Says the man that had a Feb '69 snow map for an avatar at one point. lol

Lol.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Says the man that had a Feb '69 snow map for an avatar at one point. lol

One storm out of missing like 8 in 2010 ha ha.

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Lol.

That was a great one too, But you will have to go with my assessment on it..........

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One storm out of missing like 8 in 2010 ha ha.

Didn't you get a 20-burger in the Lindsay Storm too earlier that month?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One storm out of missing like 8 in 2010 ha ha.

No, I get it...just giving you a hard time. Even for me, enormous NAO blocks are a bit riskier.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn't you get a 20-burger in the Lindsay Storm too earlier that month?

There is always something that can go wrong in any setup, but on average there is more margin for error with a big NAO block than with a positive NAO.

[ineedsnow]

Euro ots now for next week

[ineedsnow]

 looks like its ots swings back west to southern Quebec then ends up over southern VT  what the heck lol

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Didn't you get a 20-burger in the Lindsay Storm too earlier that month?

Not sure on that one, But that winter is not in the top 5 that i have, But there were a few years where there is missing data.

[Typhoon Tip]

Egh .. negative interference pattern at large scales - that's what that is... yuck.

It's likely to change but as is ..

[dryslot]

That's quite the bowling ball though on the euro for next week, Placement is all over the place right now but its something to watch going forward, Get that to dig further SE before the capture and tug and............

[weathafella]

The pattern has changed.  We have stepped down and continue to do so.   By December we’ll be “if this weenie’s rockin’ don’t come a knockin’”

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not sure on that one, But that winter is not in the top 5 that i have, But there were a few years where there is missing data.

Massive slingshot job on the Euro....if that happens a little earlier then it could be pretty decent snow. Even as is, it does get accumulating snow into a good chunk of New England...even if most of it is sub-advisory stuff outside the mountains.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone remember that huge storm that buried Pittsburgh, PA and rained on us in Novie 1995? Then we had that mixed event later in the month and it never stopped snowing.

That is what this storm reminds me of.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone remember that huge storm that buried Pittsburgh, PA and rained on us in Novie 1995? Then we had that mixed event later in the month and it never stopped snowing.

That is what this storm reminds me of.

Yeah that was Nov 14-15, 1995 I think...we actually started as snow in that in ORH...but only for a brief time. Had a quick half inch or so and then a lull....then when the main precip shield came in during the afternoon it was 40F rain.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone remember that huge storm that buried Pittsburgh, PA and rained on us in Novie 1995? Then we had that mixed event later in the month and it never stopped snowing.

That is what this storm reminds me of.

Yes.  Also buried parts of upstate NY.   A week later the anafrontal 3-6 showed up and we were off the races until the mid January melt down before resuming 2 weeks later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was Nov 14-15, 1995 I think...we actually started as snow in that in ORH...but only for a brief time. Had a quick half inch or so and then a lull....then when the main precip shield came in during the afternoon it was 40F rain.

Of course Will remembers precisely how many leaves blew done throughout SNE in the event...I was just happy to be in the ballpark-

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yes.  Also buried parts of upstate NY.   A week later the anafrontal 3-6 showed up and we were off the races until the mid January melt down before resuming 2 weeks later.

This pattern reminds me of that.

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 looks like its ots swings back west to southern Quebec then ends up over southern VT  what the heck lol

Much better depiction than the 00z cutter from Hell.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This pattern reminds me of that.

The pattern has reminded me of that year the entire autumn.   Let’s keep it going!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The pattern has reminded me of that year the entire autumn.   Let’s keep it going!

Yea, October and early Novie were very mild. Strange because I also anticipate a bit of a STJ presence this season, which is one peculiar trait for a la nina season that that year had.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The pattern has reminded me of that year the entire autumn.   Let’s keep it going!

Another OP run showing a monster block.....yeah, it's in clown range, but the cross-model appeal and ensemble support is pretty good.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Another OP run showing a monster block.....yeah, it's in clown range, but the cross-model appeal and ensemble support is pretty good.

 

I buy it.

Maybe time for subscriptions in a week or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I honestly think 1995 is a good analog to start the season...main difference being that the PNA may not be quite as robust...we'll see. That would be more of an issue for the MA in terms of snowfall, and mean that it probably wouldn't be as cold overall.