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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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It's not worth discussing deterministic impacts -

...for the multi-syllabic challenged, that means no use even guessing specifics affects,

It's really a place holder for the time being.   It's the same signal we've been monitoring for the past week, but is still unfortunately too deep in the extended to start taking form.

That rendition above is typical of this range in autumn ...where the models lobe the warm over top, and then eventually seclude warmth - it almost looks like a hybrid storm in that pressure layout - like what happened in 1991 when the core went caney

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You do have to laugh at the gfs evolution. Misses SNE with surgical precision.

:lol:Lol right.
 

It’ll edge it’s way/come north if it’s a powerhouse as depicted imo. I realize everyone knows this, but the Only thing that matters at this point is that a system is appearing on the modeling. Something of interest at least.  

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

:lol:Lol right.
 

It’ll edge it’s way/come north if it’s a powerhouse as depicted imo. I realize everyone knows this, but the Only thing that matters at this point is that a system is appearing on the modeling. Something of interest at least.  

This will be solid preseason practice. No need to be invested yet; feels like a Mitch trouncer to me.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Eps appears fun to end November and begin December.

That’s a weenie pattern to end the month and begin December. 

Big -NAO and +PNA. Not sure how long that PNA will hold given our current enso/PDO state but that is what you want to see...esp early in season when you have less wiggle room. 

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46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a weenie pattern to end the month and begin December. 

Big -NAO and +PNA. Not sure how long that PNA will hold given our current enso/PDO state but that is what you want to see...esp early in season when you have less wiggle room. 

Thanksgiving week still looking cold?

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27 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Thanksgiving week still looking cold?

Yes. Doesn’t mean there can’t be a torch day in there if we get a storm cutting to the west but the overall pattern that week is definitely below normal temps on the mean. Esp after about Monday/Tuesday. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a weenie pattern to end the month and begin December. 

Big -NAO and +PNA. Not sure how long that PNA will hold given our current enso/PDO state but that is what you want to see...esp early in season when you have less wiggle room. 

It can be surprising sometimes...I actually forecasted a +PNA DEC....obviously the PDO and PNA are positively correlated, but not always. That vomit bucked of a 2011-2012 season actually had +PNA. And even when it is negative in the mean, there are more stochastic fluctuations that can allow us to cash in if they are timely. Of course, Jan 2011 had one such period.

I know you are aware of all of this...just saying.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can be surprising sometimes...I actually forecasted a +PNA DEC....obviously the PDO and PNA are positively correlated, but not always. That vomit bucked of a 2011-2012 season actually had +PNA. And even when it is negative in the mean, there are more stochastic fluctuations that can allow us to cash in if they are timely. Of course, Jan 2011 had one such period.

I know you are aware of all of this...just saying.

Yeah and so did December 2005 and Jan 2009 for a couple others off top of my head. I think even Dec 2017 may have been positive but not a raging +PNA like ensembles show. 

Getting a raging +PNA in a Niña is very good though...even if just for a few weeks. Lots of northern stream goodies for us. 

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