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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It does ( still ..) to me as of this morning...

For the general reader:  I had posted this same subject matter .. ( should have started a separate thread ), but with my proclivity to languish on too long ( ha ) .. - Twitter is killing this site's art, frankly.

Anyway, I stated ( blw ) the 18-24th is a synoptic vulnerable time. Either a series or singular event of importance looks more plausible than the background climate signal - however, I can certainly see biasing toward the latter half of that chunk of days, sure.  The period in question is during pattern transition; that is when we look for 'corrective' events take place along, identified by the inflection of the ensemble means/curves. Both the EPS and to some lesser ( albeit not zero order ) degree the GEFs, have are orienting the spatial layout out of 500 mb anomalies, into a  -EPO/ quasi -EPO... ioa the D6-9 range. Suddenly we see operational Euro and GFS runs with D10 850 mb < -20 C plumes in Canada? Not an accident.  All of which the ensemble means of both then relay that into a period of modest, albeit crucial rise in the PNA out around the 20-24th. 

Getting too long again.. .

 

Yeah we get this nice EPO cold dump and then as the EPO block retrogrades away we get a PNA spike despite the lowering heights in AK...kind of a “flattish” PNA ridge but it’s not zonal...it’s just not his monster ridging shooting up into Yellowknife...there’s all kinds of cold to tap into because of that initial EPO loading....and we all know some western ridging with cold available can make interesting things happen for the winter enthusiast. 

We’ll see. But it’s the type of general pattern hat has preceded many of our White Thanksgivings. 

 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fun times ahead 

81A611EB-8140-43F2-AA7A-3B05CB8CE3C0.jpeg

It's interesting to see this virtual radar rendition with that dynamic punch-through cold ptype, along the spine of the Greens like that... I was thinking this morning this situ looked like a low melt level thunderstorm potential.  Sky gets dark..  wind and large drops sweep in with a hard-to-tell mix of grapple-hail. Some cat paw fat rain toward the back ends before ending...  That would be more so for the >700' but it's pinging cold rain elsewhere.  Also, this may bring down some wind momentum - it was looking more isallobaric pulsed a few days ago, but altho still potent, the S/W/mechanics are not quites as ominous. Still, with DVM with downdrafting those could combine for a wind threat I would think.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In a few hours it will be worse

It'll be worse but not too bad.  The large majority of leaves are down at this point, and the trees actually on my property are just about bare.

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We’ve got some good rumbles here now..

Try some saltines.

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