Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Congrats PF on th TSSN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Lips and hips 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 36⁰ should be a wild day in the Berks Greens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lips and hips You're one strange dude. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 36⁰ should be a wild day in the Berks Greens. Might be everywhere. Could be gusts to 50 on each side of downpours/thunder with hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: You're one strange dude. Lol That’s a great song. Give it a listen. Picture Ginx swinging his hips with lips 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Damaging afternoon ahead . Fruitless to do leaves Valid 1312002 - 1412002 • THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. • SUMMARY. A few strong to locally damaging thunderstorms are possible from northern New Jersey into southern New England beginning around 1pm. Strong wind gusts are most likely, but small hail is possible as well •Synopsis and Discussion. A longwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS during the day, with an upper low centered over James Bay. An embedded shortwave will move quickly from the OH Valley into New England, with strong cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front will surge east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, wain minimal moisture return anead of it wins aloft will be very strong, although much of it will exist above expected storm tops. The primary thunderstorm risk will exist over parts of the Northeast during the early afternoon, in association with the potent shortwave trough and lift along the cold front. Although dewpoints are only forecast to be in the 40s and perhaps near 50 F, 500 mb temperatures will drop to around -25 C, resulting in low-topped SBCAPE profiles of a few hundred J/kg. Models suggest storms will form over northern NJ around 182, and spread east/northeast across southern New England. Extreme deep-layer shear will exist, and hodographs will primarily be straiont line, iowever, due to the low-topped nature of the storms, much of the shear will be above storm top and rendered ineffective. Stil locally damaging gusts will be possible with both cells and line segments. In addition, and despite weak instability, small hail appears likely given very cold temperatures aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damaging afternoon ahead . Fruitless to do leaves Valid 1312002 - 1412002 • THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. • SUMMARY. A few strong to locally damaging thunderstorms are possible from northern New Jersey into southern New England beginning around 1pm. Strong wind gusts are most likely, but small hail is possible as well •Synopsis and Discussion. A longwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS during the day, with an upper low centered over James Bay. An embedded shortwave will move quickly from the OH Valley into New England, with strong cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front will surge east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, wain minimal moisture return anead of it wins aloft will be very strong, although much of it will exist above expected storm tops. The primary thunderstorm risk will exist over parts of the Northeast during the early afternoon, in association with the potent shortwave trough and lift along the cold front. Although dewpoints are only forecast to be in the 40s and perhaps near 50 F, 500 mb temperatures will drop to around -25 C, resulting in low-topped SBCAPE profiles of a few hundred J/kg. Models suggest storms will form over northern NJ around 182, and spread east/northeast across southern New England. Extreme deep-layer shear will exist, and hodographs will primarily be straiont line, iowever, due to the low-topped nature of the storms, much of the shear will be above storm top and rendered ineffective. Stil locally damaging gusts will be possible with both cells and line segments. In addition, and despite weak instability, small hail appears likely given very cold temperatures I'm still waiting for my leaves to drop.. Looks like a fun afternoon here. E winds veering around to more SW winds in the mid levels, will allow for an increase in helicity, and possible rotation for some thunderstorms due to this low level wind shear. There is a marginal potential for damaging winds as well as a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinny Findley Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Long time lurker. 2.09 for the day yesterday. I'm guessing we had a few gusts of around 50mph. A few gusts here in Cranston rocked the house. Warwick and North Providence had power outages from trees falling and taking power lines down. Most of the rain fell from 1:00 to about 4:30. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 14 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Prob 90% of oak leaves down here after today. Same here--except for the one that's overhanging my driveway. Ugh. Looks like I'll take care of what's down today and figure that last one will shed later today. Hopefully the wind will blow them all toward the neighbor's or the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just a disaster . and soaking wet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Windex squalls in VT/Berks today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Yeah, not much point in leaf blowing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, BrianW said: I'm still waiting for my leaves to drop.. Looks like a fun afternoon here. E winds veering around to more SW winds in the mid levels, will allow for an increase in helicity, and possible rotation for some thunderstorms due to this low level wind shear. There is a marginal potential for damaging winds as well as a tornado. Yeah--looks like western areas of south of the pike are in the best spot for things. 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just a disaster . and soaking wet 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah, not much point in leaf blowing today. Leaves are drying out quickly---no big deal with a decent blower. Meanwhile, there were landscapers out by 6:30 while I was walking the dog. I'm sure the neighbors didn't mind. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Damage from yesterdays winds on yard/ wood line 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 CT upgraded to a Slight risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: CT upgraded to a Slight risk today. Bring it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Yeah--looks like western areas of south of the pike are in the best spot for things. Leaves are drying out quickly---no big deal with a decent blower. Meanwhile, there were landscapers out by 6:30 while I was walking the dog. I'm sure the neighbors didn't mind. lol As you slosh around in soaked footwear and trampling all over your muddy lawn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just a disaster . and soaking wet Will FEMA help with leaf removal? (FWIW at its worst your lawn looks better than mine at its best) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: 2.52" according to the gauge. For those confused - it's not that off (if at all) compared to radar estimates and some of the other obs in this area: The pattern does look sorta interesting in 10 days. Anyways, that's typically when I start sniffing around the models for anything wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Most in New England now? Lol Lincolnville (midcoast Maine) reported 3.19" to cocorahs. Had 1.63" in my gauge in a bit less than 8 hours. Probably half came 4-6 PM just before rain ended. Wind was barely there. The big oak retains 1/4 of its leaves but smaller ones and the understory beech are nearly bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Glass fishing. Stick season 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might be everywhere. Could be gusts to 50 on each side of downpours/thunder with hail. Meaning flip to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Dense fog and chilly down in the valley this morning. But even at 500' in Btown we were mostly above it, now stunning blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Fun times ahead Congrats, Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fun times ahead Fun times for him and the few buried bodies...not for 99% of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: T-day week looks cold on EPS. Might get a snow threat out of that look. It does ( still ..) to me as of this morning... For the general reader: I had posted this same subject matter .. ( should have started a separate thread ), but with my proclivity to languish on too long ( ha ) .. - Twitter is killing this site's art, frankly. Anyway, I stated ( blw ) the 18-24th is a synoptic vulnerable time. Either a series or singular event of importance looks more plausible than the background climate signal - however, I can certainly see biasing toward the latter half of that chunk of days, sure. The period in question is during pattern transition; that is when we look for 'corrective' events take place along, identified by the inflection of the ensemble means/curves. Both the EPS and to some lesser ( albeit not zero order ) degree the GEFs, have are orienting the spatial layout out of 500 mb anomalies, into a -EPO/ quasi -EPO... ioa the D6-9 range. Suddenly we see operational Euro and GFS runs with D10 850 mb < -20 C plumes in Canada? Not an accident. All of which the ensemble means of both then relay that into a period of modest, albeit crucial rise in the PNA out around the 20-24th. Getting too long again.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fun times ahead That’s a Tor sig 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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