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November Discussion


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Damaging afternoon ahead . Fruitless to do leaves 

Valid 1312002 - 1412002
• THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
• SUMMARY.
A few strong
to locally damaging thunderstorms are possible from
northern New Jersey into southern New England beginning around 1pm.
Strong wind gusts are most likely, but small hail is possible as
well
•Synopsis and Discussion.
A longwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS during the day,
with an upper low centered over James Bay.
An embedded shortwave
will move quickly from the OH Valley into New England, with strong
cooling
aloft.
At the surface,
a cold front will surge east across the Mid Atlantic
and Northeast,
wain minimal moisture return anead of it wins aloft
will be very strong, although much of it will exist above expected
storm tops.
The primary thunderstorm risk will
exist
over parts of the Northeast
during the early afternoon,
in association with the potent shortwave
trough and lift along the cold front. Although dewpoints are only
forecast to be in the 40s and perhaps near 50 F,
500 mb temperatures
will drop to around -25 C, resulting in low-topped SBCAPE profiles
of a few
hundred J/kg. Models suggest storms will form over northern
NJ around 182, and spread east/northeast across southern New
England.
Extreme deep-layer shear will exist, and hodographs will primarily
be straiont line, iowever,
due to the low-topped nature of the
storms, much of the shear will be above storm top and rendered
ineffective.
Stil
locally damaging gusts will be possible with
both cells and line segments. In addition, and despite weak
instability, small hail appears likely given very cold temperatures
aloft.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damaging afternoon ahead . Fruitless to do leaves 

Valid 1312002 - 1412002
• THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
• SUMMARY.
A few strong
to locally damaging thunderstorms are possible from
northern New Jersey into southern New England beginning around 1pm.
Strong wind gusts are most likely, but small hail is possible as
well
•Synopsis and Discussion.
A longwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS during the day,
with an upper low centered over James Bay.
An embedded shortwave
will move quickly from the OH Valley into New England, with strong
cooling
aloft.
At the surface,
a cold front will surge east across the Mid Atlantic
and Northeast,
wain minimal moisture return anead of it wins aloft
will be very strong, although much of it will exist above expected
storm tops.
The primary thunderstorm risk will
exist
over parts of the Northeast
during the early afternoon,
in association with the potent shortwave
trough and lift along the cold front. Although dewpoints are only
forecast to be in the 40s and perhaps near 50 F,
500 mb temperatures
will drop to around -25 C, resulting in low-topped SBCAPE profiles
of a few
hundred J/kg. Models suggest storms will form over northern
NJ around 182, and spread east/northeast across southern New
England.
Extreme deep-layer shear will exist, and hodographs will primarily
be straiont line, iowever,
due to the low-topped nature of the
storms, much of the shear will be above storm top and rendered
ineffective.
Stil
locally damaging gusts will be possible with
both cells and line segments. In addition, and despite weak
instability, small hail appears likely given very cold temperatures
 

I'm still waiting for my leaves to drop..

Looks like a fun afternoon here.

 

E winds veering around to more SW winds in the mid levels, will allow for an increase in helicity, and possible rotation for some thunderstorms due to this low level wind shear. There is a marginal potential for damaging winds as well as a tornado.

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14 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Prob 90% of oak leaves down here after today.  

Same here--except for the one that's overhanging my driveway.  Ugh.  Looks like I'll take care of what's down today and figure that last one will shed later today.  Hopefully the wind will blow them all toward the neighbor's or the street.

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34 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I'm still waiting for my leaves to drop..

Looks like a fun afternoon here.

 

E winds veering around to more SW winds in the mid levels, will allow for an increase in helicity, and possible rotation for some thunderstorms due to this low level wind shear. There is a marginal potential for damaging winds as well as a tornado.

Yeah--looks like western areas of south of the pike are in the best spot for things.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just a disaster . and soaking wet 

 

YqtUfVA.jpg

 

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah, not much point in leaf blowing today.   

Leaves are drying out quickly---no big deal with a decent blower.

Meanwhile, there were landscapers out by 6:30 while I was walking the dog.  I'm sure the neighbors didn't mind.  lol

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--looks like western areas of south of the pike are in the best spot for things.

 

Leaves are drying out quickly---no big deal with a decent blower.

Meanwhile, there were landscapers out by 6:30 while I was walking the dog.  I'm sure the neighbors didn't mind.  lol

As you slosh around in soaked footwear and trampling all over your muddy lawn.

 

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13 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

2.52" according to the gauge. 

For those confused - it's not that off (if at all) compared to radar estimates and some of the other obs in this area: 

Radar.JPG.7f989823aed4e10f108295917ff4f77b.JPG

The pattern does look sorta interesting in 10 days. Anyways, that's typically when I start sniffing around the models for anything wintry. 

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13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Most in New England now? Lol

Lincolnville (midcoast Maine) reported 3.19" to cocorahs. 
Had 1.63" in my gauge in a bit less than 8 hours.  Probably half came 4-6 PM just before rain ended.  Wind was barely there.  The big oak retains 1/4 of its leaves but smaller ones and the understory beech are nearly bare.

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19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

T-day week looks cold on EPS. Might get a snow threat out of that look.

It does ( still ..) to me as of this morning...

For the general reader:  I had posted this same subject matter .. ( should have started a separate thread ), but with my proclivity to languish on too long ( ha ) .. - Twitter is killing this site's art, frankly.

Anyway, I stated ( blw ) the 18-24th is a synoptic vulnerable time. Either a series or singular event of importance looks more plausible than the background climate signal - however, I can certainly see biasing toward the latter half of that chunk of days, sure.  The period in question is during pattern transition; that is when we look for 'corrective' events take place along, identified by the inflection of the ensemble means/curves. Both the EPS and to some lesser ( albeit not zero order ) degree the GEFs, have are orienting the spatial layout out of 500 mb anomalies, into a  -EPO/ quasi -EPO... ioa the D6-9 range. Suddenly we see operational Euro and GFS runs with D10 850 mb < -20 C plumes in Canada? Not an accident.  All of which the ensemble means of both then relay that into a period of modest, albeit crucial rise in the PNA out around the 20-24th. 

Getting too long again.. .

 

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