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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Ya The swings with each model run are getting rough to read.  Gorgeous week…Monday, yesterday and now today too…just enjoy it.  Who cares if the 330 hr GFS shows rain or temps around 50, it’s 11/10.  
 

Enjoy the great weather and appreciate it. NNE should get on the board within the next couple weeks..so the step down continues. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That day 6 threat might be just a bit late in developing, but still worth watching.

Agreed.

You know this, just speaking to the general audience here:    And, it hasn't really been the other way with this guy .. save for one or two sporadic non-dependable runs of GFS ( heh, one wonders if there is a tell there).  The 18z yesterday's NJ Model bomb was one of those .. But no continuity. Invariably, those notions immediately re-damped back to the too-little-too-late on the next cycle.

I did a quick eval.  The loading mechanics, as of the 06z, were just approaching the Date Line, out around 45 N. It was entering the compression under a progressive L/W in that region, thus pulled and stretched by fast flow ... extending out over the abyssal Pacific - in other words, in the absolute middle of nowhere. It is literally going to have to be 100% satellite sounding/assimilated. Which is usually fine - nowadays.  Technology and techniques therein have improved over the last 20 years, considerably. I mean remember the good old days?  As winter storm enthusiasts, how our dreams sometimes came true that error correction, upon relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain, would suddenly manifest and moisten said dreams.  The last time this seemed to really matter was that Boxing Day bomb way back.  That thing was impressive at D8... all but disappeared in the interim. Out of nowhere, just three runs it marches 2,000 naut miles NW!

Still, this is a highly sensitive-to-smaller error scenario.   The other limiting factor is that as the wave mechanics are diving in, the leading embedded wave space has escaped the EC taking most of the dynamics with it.  The baroclinic axis, as of these overnight runs, is just too far off shore as you noted. 

The way around that is to have a stronger system relay off the Pacific.  A deeper more momentum saturated inject introduces torque to the larger synoptic manifold.  This manifest as flow rotation, or veering at mid levels into more meridian structure out ahead. That starts importing lower level warmth/moisture back W-N immediately astride the coast. Basically, b-c zone has redeveloped/ repositioned closer ...

My own experience is, this kind of persistent presence in the models, usually means it is in and of its self significant.  It's likely that one way or the other...it's a bomb whisking away out over the open expanse of NW-N Atlantic beyond D6, whether that begins to happen sooner or later.

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I didn't see any real changes overnight to the D6 threat.

 

As for late November, the guidance has been slowly warming because of eroding blocking up in the WPO/EPO region, but I wouldn't sweat it too much. It's not like there is a death vortex up there.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't see any real changes overnight to the D6 threat.

 

As for late November, the guidance has been slowly warming because of eroding blocking up in the WPO/EPO region, but I wouldn't sweat it too much. It's not like there is a death vortex up there.

The paranoia is off of the charts.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The paranoia is off of the charts.

Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. 

If the winter is not a combination of December 1995, January 2011, February 2015, and March 1993, it's a failure.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled

That is what I alluding to.

I feel fine about December...even if it ends up near normal or a bit above.

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. 

That’s the problem with pathetic social media….such fake BS it defies logic.  That’s why I want no part of it. Never been a part of that nonsense, and life is so much better not seeing or participating in that total crap.  All you need to know about weather is found here…it’s factual and actual and no exaggeration.  
 

Thank you Will and Scott and Ray and Ginxy..and the others that keep things real.  

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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Give me March 2018 over 1993.

And if it weren't for the Grinch porker, I would have taken Dec 2007 over 1995.

I'd actually probably take Dec 1970 over both. The first 4 or 5 days torched and then all hell broke loose and it never stopped.

March 2001 is also prob better than either 1993 or 2018 if we're talking about Methuen.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd actually probably take Dec 1970 over both. The first 4 or 5 days torched and then all hell broke loose and it never stopped.

March 2001 is also prob better than either 1993 or 2018 if we're talking about Methuen.

I was contemplating that, but I'd have to look back to see other events, aside from the 3/5 lion.

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19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Isn’t it 1” snow depth at 12z on Xmas morning?

Though I report snow depth to cocorahs at 7 AM, I've been recording depth at 9 PM for the past 45 years, so that's my "official" measurement.  Using that metric, we've had white ground on 19 of 23 Christmases here, with only 2" in 1998 but 3+ in the other 18.  Max was 16" in 2017 thanks to the 8" dump that day.  Misses came in 1999, 2006, 2015 and 2020.  Last year was the only one of the 4 which had pack (4") on the 24th; the others had a long string of bare ground pre-Christmas.  Average depth rises to 6"+ on 12/17 and with one exception stays above the half-foot mark thru 4/12.  Last year's 12/25 deluge dragged the average for that date to 5.96".  One hopes that blot on the 6"+ run can be erased this year.

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