November Discussion

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re being too generous. More like a million…

Correct....what was I thinking??

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re being too generous. More like a million…

Dryslot raining and Tblizz pounding paste.     Sure. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Correct....what was I thinking??

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a pretty deep trough with some blocking upstream in Canada which will help shortwaves rotating around it dig. Definitely something we need to keep an eye on.

 

Regardless, the first week of November looks solidly below normal. Then it looks like a bit of a torchy pattern mid-month and then we'll see if that late-month snap back to colder materializes.

Man ... purely for the entertainment of the thing, the value therein is priceless if one could see the next three days of where the GGEM solution was going with that mo'fugga..    ho man!   Beyond the kingdom of Bun.

That D8-9-10 --> leading is like that Jodie Foster "Contact" scene,  " ... No   words.   only poetry "

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dryslot raining and Tblizz pounding paste.     Sure. 

Tblizz meh’ing his way to another power outage while Drylot takes his anger out on a buck execution style.

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

LOL!!!!

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man ... purely for the entertainment of the thing, the value therein is priceless if one could see the next three days of where the GGEM solution was going with that mo'fugga..    ho man!   Beyond the kingdom of Bun.

That D8-9-10 --> leading is like that Jodie Foster "Contact" scene,  " ... No   words.   only poetry "

Yeah when I saw that trough orientation and the shortwave digging around the base of it, I was thinking "It would have been nice to see another couple 12 hour panels just for kicks"

But while that exact solution is unlikely, you can see how the blockiness back in central Canada is going to aid in getting some exotic-looking evolutionns. When you have such an extreme meridional flow like that, you can have shortwave round that corner with superb efficiency. It doesn't take much room to get it to pop a big one. Typically, we'd grumble the ridge/trough axis are too far east, but not in that case. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Should I lock in the 18" of snow the GFS has for my hood now or wait a little bit?

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Should I lock in the 18" of snow the GFS has for my hood now or wait a little bit?

Lock.  You can always adjust higher later

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Figured menopause at your age by now.

Well past it.

[8611Blizz]

Just some trash I picked up on the interwebs... Weather Pros

[dendrite]

Up here it's...

Plow: Nov 25th
Salt: Never

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when I saw that trough orientation and the shortwave digging around the base of it, I was thinking "It would have been nice to see another couple 12 hour panels just for kicks"

But while that exact solution is unlikely, you can see how the blockiness back in central Canada is going to aid in getting some exotic-looking evolutionns. When you have such an extreme meridional flow like that, you can have shortwave round that corner with superb efficiency. It doesn't take much room to get it to pop a big one. Typically, we'd grumble the ridge/trough axis are too far east, but not in that case. 

Excellent trough. Definitely some features to play with as you said. 

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when I saw that trough orientation and the shortwave digging around the base of it, I was thinking "It would have been nice to see another couple 12 hour panels just for kicks"

But while that exact solution is unlikely, you can see how the blockiness back in central Canada is going to aid in getting some exotic-looking evolutionns. When you have such an extreme meridional flow like that, you can have shortwave round that corner with superb efficiency. It doesn't take much room to get it to pop a big one. Typically, we'd grumble the ridge/trough axis are too far east, but not in that case. 

This ...

I spoke about that aspect earlier yeah.  It's like the NAO D. Straight variant eitehr retrogrades to west-central Canada, or...just decays in lieu of the latter -

Either way, that is a subsume scenario as is in that lala range. But your general point is the bigger take away - in general, active stormy look may be setting up - and this time, actual cold/baroclinic physics to work with, most likely

[weathafella]

It’s the season of tons of salt dropped for an inch of snow that melts the next day.

[PhineasC]

So much salt that you slow down thinking it might be snow or ice.

[DavisStraight]

I like the way the pattern is shaping up as we head into the cold season.

[MJO812]

Here comes the euro 

[CoastalWx]

Frozen  on the Euro?

[dryslot]

Just keep something on the coast in that time frame, Looks like there would be some cold air to work with too.

[Typhoon Tip]

That Euro solution might stall but ... 

you know I realize we're done with autumn's perennial boredom prison sentence and would like to move things along, the obvious applies here -

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a pretty deep trough with some blocking upstream in Canada which will help shortwaves rotating around it dig. Definitely something we need to keep an eye on.

 

Regardless, the first week of November looks solidly below normal. Then it looks like a bit of a torchy pattern mid-month and then we'll see if that late-month snap back to colder materializes.

That’s typically a time where we are milder. There’s not many snow events in the first 7-10 of Nov in SNE

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here comes the euro 

I didn’t lose trees or power from the Noresster.. Hopefully the snowstorm will do it !

[Go Kart Mozart]

Channeling Joe Pecsi...What am I, a friggin clown?

[weathafella]

In the bullseye 9 days out-what could go wrong?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In the bullseye 9 days out-what could go wrong?

We could go higher!

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s typically a time where we are milder. There’s not many snow events in the first 7-10 of Nov in SNE

Yeah there's been a dearth of good snow events historically in the first week of November here. We've had more impressive stuff in late October.

We did have a pretty good one though in 2012...Nov 6-7, 2012.

[PhineasC]

Hopefully an early start to winter up here. It took forever to get started last year.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hopefully an early start to winter up here. It took forever to get started last year.

The temps will be plenty good for snow making for at least 5-7 days early November. But it does look like it gets pretty mild for a time mid-month. 

But at least for the ski areas, man made snow will be pretty durable as long as no torching 55-60F cutters come along with that mid-month pattern. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there's been a dearth of good snow events historically in the first week of November here. We've had more impressive stuff in late October.

We did have a pretty good one though in 2012...Nov 6-7, 2012.

That period is definitely due for a biggie , specifically talking elevations . Maybe not this year but my guess is in the next 25-30 years ..it happens