November Discussion

[SJonesWX]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 No one is calling for bitterly cold air in our area

hey weenies, this is the New England sub-forum. no one here cares about NYC and NJ

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

hey weenies, this is the New England sub-forum. no one here cares about NYC and NJ

Nah he’s good. Besides he never mentioned his area, his area was called out. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ensembles have been pretty consistent in the pattern shift in the PAC. There will likely be some winter threats in the final 10 days of the month for some on this forum assuming no major changes....obviously in November that favors NNE elevations, but can't rule out further south or lower down either.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

hey weenies, this is the New England sub-forum. no one here cares about NYC and NJ

I do

[BrianW]

With record high heating costs I think most people are enjoying this nice warm start to November. 

Also, this weeks mild warm up is nothing compared to last November here. I recall some spots in SW CT hitting 80. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What do you mean?

I was just being passively snarky about the 12z Euro run yesterday ... That D10 did not look like a mid month cool down pattern to me.

But obviously, one run doesn't make a bun.    The comment is really directed toward the straw man, as I spent time writing about it last week, and as usual .. more than a sentence gets auto-ignored. Heh. I didn't see anyone very interested in acknowledging, either way. 

So attempting to keep this brief uh 'er',  the models ( regardless of which - ) for years now ( actually ...) have this propensity to over magnify everything that comes into the outer time range - then, spend ... cycle after cycle after cycle seemingly engineering petty reasons to tax the original look. What ends up verifying is ... at best 70 % of the original.   It's just a personal observation of the model performance/..behavior.  And it doesn't matter if it's heating or cooling anomaly patterns, and/or storms and whatever contained within them. Everything is awe-inspiring --> less awe-inspiring; it's presumptive correction vector for me at this point. I used the metaphor last year for this aspect  ... it's like the moon first rising over the eastern horizon?   I looks ginormous... but then as it ages upward into its zenith, it's a fraction of its original - it's like the models "magnify" everything that emerges into the D~12 range

[SJonesWX]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I do

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/11-new-york-city-metro/

[Snowcrazed71]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just being passively snarky about the 12z Euro run yesterday ... That D10 did not look like a mid month cool down pattern to me.

But obviously, one run doesn't make a bun.    The comment is really directed toward the straw man, as I spent time writing about it last week, and as usual .. more than a sentence gets auto-ignored. Heh. I didn't see anyone very interested in acknowledging, either way. 

So attempting to keep this brief uh 'er',  the models ( regardless of which - ) for years now ( actually ...) have this propensity to over magnify everything that comes into the outer time range - then, spend ... cycle after cycle after cycle seemingly engineering petty reasons to tax the original look. What ends up verifying is ... at best 70 % of the original.   It's just a personal observation of the model performance/..behavior.  And it doesn't matter if it's heating or cooling anomaly patterns, and/or storms and whatever contained within them. Everything is awe-inspiring --> less awe-inspiring; it's presumptive correction vector for me at this point. I used the metaphor last year for this aspect  ... it's like the moon first rising over the eastern horizon?   I looks ginormous... but then as it ages upward into its zenith, it's a fraction of its original - it's like the models "magnify" everything that emerges into the D~12 range

It is quite mind boggling. Can drive a sane person insane I tell ya! Lol

I will say this, the Euro tends to always have a warm bias, especially long range, so I always take their modeled temp forecasts for the upcoming months with a grain of salt. 

Thanks for your insight ( and as always ) your rather extensive vocabulary ( that I will admit I have to look up sometimes ). Just saying. ;-)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles have been pretty consistent in the pattern shift in the PAC. There will likely be some winter threats in the final 10 days of the month for some on this forum assuming no major changes....obviously in November that favors NNE elevations, but can't rule out further south or lower down either.

Someone in SNE (MA, CT, RI) will get plowable before Novie ends...that is my call.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

With record high heating costs I think most people are enjoying this nice warm start to November. 

Also, this weeks mild warm up is nothing compared to last November here. I recall some spots in SW CT hitting 80. 

 

Here we're enjoying the incredible run of sunny/mostly sunny days in what's our cloudiest month on average.  However, the clear nights are running 4-5° BN so even though highs are about normal the month is at -2.2 thru yesterday.

[weathafella]

What a nice day today!

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What a nice day today!

Mowvember. Last mulching mowing done. The green green grass of home.

[MJO812]

 Congrats 

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Congrats 

If you think that looks good....

 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Congrats 

Beer 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer 

Truckloads....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Friday looks like it could be wet

[Typhoon Tip]

29 to 65 ..

impressive diurnal spread

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

29 to 65 ..

impressive diurnal spread

Yeah pretty good for fall with a low sun angle.

25 to 63 at CON...overperformed on both ends.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

50 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Friday looks like it could be wet

Yup, that's been locked in for days.   You can count on cutters!

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mowvember. Last mulching mowing done. The green green grass of home.

Third longest streak without rain since May. Let's keep it going.

[rimetree]

5th day in a row with <32F low. Next up <40F high and first flakes.

[ORH_wxman]

That system next week is def watchable for NNE...even if synoptically it ends up as a snoozer, it would likely give some decent upslope behind it. Just another step down.

[CoastalWx]

Nice start to winter for Plains and into GL region. I think you'll need one of those systems to cut west, and then swing the cold east with another s/w amplifying to help deliver a SWFE type system. Like Will said...favor farther interior and NNE for now.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice start to winter for Plains and into GL region. I think you'll need one of those systems to cut west, and then swing the cold east with another s/w amplifying to help deliver a SWFE type system. Like Will said...favor farther interior and NNE for now.

It look like there was certainly the potential for another cutter out in la la land on the models. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It look like there was certainly the potential for another cutter out in la la land on the models. 

Step down cutters. Typical in Novie. I wouldn't expect anything before the 20th.

[powderfreak]

Crazy how radiational cooling starts after the 2:54pm observations now.  Dropping 7F between 2:54-3:54pm and well on the nighttime path so early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

Here we're enjoying the incredible run of sunny/mostly sunny days in what's our cloudiest month on average.  However, the clear nights are running 4-5° BN so even though highs are about normal the month is at -2.2 thru yesterday.

Opposite of how global warm has manifested itself on average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy how radiational cooling starts after the 2:54pm observations now.  Dropping 7F between 2:54-3:54pm and well on the nighttime path so early.

Love it.

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS has some light snow Sunday night