PhineasC Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 27 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Both EPS and GEFS have something to keep an eye on for 11/4-11/5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 10 hours ago, dendrite said: The world would be better off killing off 25 80% of the human population, then having the rest be devoted to virtuosity, science, some sort of sense of spiritualistic humanism rich in 'belonging,' while perhaps most of all, conserved and wise with nature's resource procurement practices, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both EPS and GEFS have something to keep an eye on for 11/4-11/5. How likely do you think it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How likely do you think it is? Depends what you are talking about....any flakes at all? That's probably got a half-decent chance. Something like advisory snows or better? That's not very likely for the non-mountain areas being 7 days out....but it's worth keeping an eye on because of the ensembles support for something. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both EPS and GEFS have something to keep an eye on for 11/4-11/5. Our Springfield friend @ineedsnowhas been touting this period for the most few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 29.2F low Same ... lawn's ashen aglow as though mortified in the night and is now wise; ha, sort of like when life's taken its toll. I tell ya, I was a bit perplexed this didn't headline from our NWS office(s) where applicable, late yesterday. It was air apparent this was a heavy frost, borderline hard freeze night and I don't believe the region had to-date passed through that rite of passage into deep autumn. I wondered if perhaps they opted out of issuance, if based upon the notion that the growing season had simply, already just run-out of time; belayed seasonal first dip allowing it to gradual extinction ... now irrelevant to warn. However, upon reading their AFD, the content didn't reflect that reasoning. It was odd, with statements like, ' ... the colder areas might make the low 30s so patchy frost could take place' - or words to that affect. Uh, ya think? 27 to 30 appears to be a common backyard home-station low when popping around Wunderground, and looking at Mesowest's rendition, FIT and ASH were 30 and BED was 28, so I don't have a problem with the Wunder spread here. This was a heavy frost headliner overnight over a large aspect of the interior, that was borderline 'freeze' by definition. Big deal? No. Of all the headline impactor facets of weather, ... this has always struck me as lower priority. Frosty nights are not doing anything that cannot be accepted as maintenance 'normal' inconveniences. But ...I don't mean to cast anti-cancel-culture "shade" over the 'first-night-of-30 f' crowd and hurt their feelings, either - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: No beer? Good good. Keep it that way. You’re thinking clearly now…it’s onto winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good good. Keep it that way. You’re thinking clearly now…it’s onto winter. Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Depends what you are talking about....any flakes at all? That's probably got a half-decent chance. Something like advisory snows or better? That's not very likely for the non-mountain areas being 7 days out....but it's worth keeping an eye on because of the ensembles support for something. So what you're saying is 3-6"? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 3 hours ago, dendrite said: 31.2° Really wanted to make it to Novie freeze free. Oh well. Didn't you learn earlier....a freeze doesn't happen until the mid-20s for temps. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty cool inversion this morning. Up on the hill here no frost...just dew and about 36-37...got to the bottom and everything was frosted. Heavy frost down there. Same here. I sit at 410'. The bottom of my hill is 0.5 miles away and 215' lower with heavy frost this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Both EPS and GEFS have something to keep an eye on for 11/4-11/5. ... ... ... Agreed ... If I might add ( imo ). Normal to even below normal ( imagine that ) during early November was the only hook and draw for the period. If we get to November 10, having the best realized cold impact be shallow interior ponds briefly freezing over, while (at least) finally the lawns stop growing ( jesus christ), folks with rational expectations will be fine with it. Which concomitantly means, if anyone posts one f'ing intoned turn of phrase that grouses matters at that time, that means you are not rational mm-k there frosty pumpkins. Now, obviously there is sane truth to the notion, you cannot snow without supportive atmosphere - and in principle, not being in the 70s helps. In fact, having hydrostatic heights below 540 dm, helps quite a bit too. So in this sense we have 1 aspect in field-equation's worth of variables - check! There is some weight in operational run suggestion/continuity of that one particular aspect. Combining telecon spread ( from the GEFs system), to lay in a "snow atmosphere" ... at least is foundation. It's definitely originating in the large synoptic evolution - I like that, with first entry northern Plains, than seasonal negative anomalies spreading eastern to the Lakes and eventually upper OV and NE... We began sustaining a -NAO weeks ago, and that's on-going. I am noticing the D7 to 10 in the 00z operational (Euro and GFS ) are in fact deflating the lower D. Straight block, and a new one formulates over the NW Territories of the Canadian Shield. This total behavior is really indicative of a 'block favoring' hemisphere, overall. So, it's hard to target the NAO as any more or less causal in any set up, over just the former distinction playing its role. Interesting... Meanwhile, the American system's PNA is bouncing around positive. This in total is a low to medium cold-biased pattern for the mid latitudes of the continent, and so ... that's the frame up for the colder regime. This appears to last 3 or 4 days. The front side, and end periods of that range might feature something more specific that avails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 SLK 20F BML 22F HIE 22F The rad pits were chilly this morning. Quite a few 25-27F mins in Merrimack Co. as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 46 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Our Springfield friend @ineedsnowhas been touting this period for the most few days. Belchertown lol its coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Belchertown lol its coming Didn’t you used to be in the Westfield area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: SLK 20F BML 22F HIE 22F The rad pits were chilly this morning. Quite a few 25-27F mins in Merrimack Co. as well. Maple Hollow -4F 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 12 hours ago, dendrite said: Everyone is out there gunning for huge strong bucks. On a related note...that chronic wasting disease in deer is looking pretty serious. That's going to be culling a lot of the herd as well. Hopefully it doesn't make it up here and doesn't spread to humans. Everyone wants to get the older bucks that no longer can compete with the 3-4 yr olds, The thing is, The population has exploded up here due to many factors one being milder winters, I have 1 any deer permit (buck or doe) and was awarded 2 bonus ones that are does only, So theoretically i can harvest 3 deer this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 6z EPS looked interesting near the Gulf at hr 144. Definitely something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 I like the period around the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I'm getting my period around the 5th. Figured menopause at your age by now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Same ... lawn's ashen aglow as though mortified in the night and is now wise; ha, sort of like when life's taken its toll. I tell ya, I was a bit perplexed this didn't headline from our NWS office(s) where applicable, late yesterday. It was air apparent this was a heavy frost, borderline hard freeze night and I don't believe the region had to-date passed through that rite of passage into deep autumn. I wondered if perhaps they opted out of issuance, if based upon the notion that the growing season had simply, already just run-out of time; belayed seasonal first dip allowing it to gradual extinction ... now irrelevant to warn. However, upon reading their AFD, the content didn't reflect that reasoning. It was odd, with statements like, ' ... the colder areas might make the low 30s so patchy frost could take place' - or words to that affect. Uh, ya think? 27 to 30 appears to be a common backyard home-station low when popping around Wunderground, and looking at Mesowest's rendition, FIT and ASH were 30 and BED was 28, so I don't have a problem with the Wunder spread here. This was a heavy frost headliner overnight over a large aspect of the interior, that was borderline 'freeze' by definition. Big deal? No. Of all the headline impactor facets of weather, ... this has always struck me as lower priority. Frosty nights are not doing anything that cannot be accepted as maintenance 'normal' inconveniences. But ...I don't mean to cast anti-cancel-culture "shade" over the 'first-night-of-30 f' crowd and hurt their feelings, either - They had issued a statement saying growing season had ended and their would be no more frost advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Oh clown range GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh clown range GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Rain pike north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 CMC cooking something up around same time. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: CMC cooking something up around same time. #NovaScotiaStrong Highs In the 20s and 30s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A thousand times better chance of the Jets winning all of their remaining games and winning their 1st SB since 1969..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 CMC also has the follow up wave. Some timing issues between models but looks like around first week of the month is a time to watch. #NovaScotiaStrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: A thousand times better chance of the Jets winning all of their remaining games and winning their 1st SB since 1969..... You’re being too generous. More like a million… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 It's a pretty deep trough with some blocking upstream in Canada which will help shortwaves rotating around it dig. Definitely something we need to keep an eye on. Regardless, the first week of November looks solidly below normal. Then it looks like a bit of a torchy pattern mid-month and then we'll see if that late-month snap back to colder materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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