November Discussion

[DavisStraight]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You already know this....but for those that don't:

Unfortunately very rare in New England....you almost need one of those "due south wind" type events where everything is eroding but someone like Chris up in Greenfield rots at 30F for several hours with ZR and a place like ORH is 40F. But usually those type of events are very transitory....the ZR changes to rain within a few hours.

The longer duration ZR events up here all require strong ageostrophic northerly flow and usually that means it's going to be strong through the lower 2000-2500 feet in the atmosphere, so we end up with higher elevations actually doing better until you reach like 2500-3000 feet or so when the temp starts rising again.

Was that the set up in 2008?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob Nov 16, 2002. That was actually a pretty big ice storm for the elevations of N CT and far S MA. We had some ZR in ORH but a lot of sleet too so it wasn't as icy as just a bit south.

Was just texting Ryan about that. I saw some damage on 84 from it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob Nov 16, 2002. That was actually a pretty big ice storm for the elevations of N CT and far S MA. We had some ZR in ORH but a lot of sleet too so it wasn't as icy as just a bit south.

NW CT down to Avon got hit hard in that one with lots of damage. This area we had a little icing near 1k, but wasn’t a huge issue 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. I’ll take the elevation help with snow events . Frost and freezes are great , but the colder day time highs I prefer as well

Ya I hear ya. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Was that the set up in 2008?

Massive juiced southern stream system slamming up into a marginal polar high in Quebec. It had very solid ageo flow. The only reason it wasn't way worse for areas closer to Boston and down into CT/NRI was the airmass was just a little too marginal. The synoptic setup was good though...and we even had a mesolow that forms to the east of BOS and went into the gulf of Maine....if the airmass had been like 2-3F colder, then even into metro Boston prob would have had a lot of ice and the 128 belt would have been decimated....and certainly your area to Kevin's too....but both of you missed out by like 0.5-1F....razor thin margin.

Here is the loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us1212.php

 

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob Nov 16, 2002. That was actually a pretty big ice storm for the elevations of N CT and far S MA. We had some ZR in ORH but a lot of sleet too so it wasn't as icy as just a bit south.

That could be it; I was surprised to see that so early in the season

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

That could be it; I was surprised to see that so early in the season

It's possible it was was 11/13/04 too, but that one didn't have much, if any, ice north of the CT/MA border. There was a little down in CT I think.

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It matters most in those events anyways. You think Lava Rock is losing sleep over Taunton being colder than him? Although maybe he is losing sleep over it?  

You can bet if he is stealing his snow he is ha ha.

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's possible it was was 11/13/04 too, but that one didn't have much, if any, ice north of the CT/MA border. There was a little down in CT I think.

I think it was this one, I moved into my house in October 2004 and it was right around that time. We got a light coating in the grassy surfaces my friend in Charlton got a decent coating on trees

[kdxken]

A top ten-er for November.

[PhineasC]

A quick drive into Gorham or Berlin during a marginal winter event or upslope period tells me all I need to know about being on the hill or down in a rad pit.

I will be 30 with heavy snow and the rad pits are 36 with rain. Happens frequently up here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Massive juiced southern stream system slamming up into a marginal polar high in Quebec. It had very solid ageo flow. The only reason it wasn't way worse for areas closer to Boston and down into CT/NRI was the airmass was just a little too marginal. The synoptic setup was good though...and we even had a mesolow that forms to the east of BOS and went into the gulf of Maine....if the airmass had been like 2-3F colder, then even into metro Boston prob would have had a lot of ice and the 128 belt would have been decimated....and certainly your area to Kevin's too....but both of you missed out by like 0.5-1F....razor thin margin.

Here is the loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us1212.php

 

Fisher has a nice writeup on the setup in his book.  He has a whole section devoted to the 1998 Maine/Canada ice storm and the 2008 event

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You already know this....but for those that don't:

Unfortunately very rare in New England....you almost need one of those "due south wind" type events where everything is eroding but someone like Chris up in Greenfield rots at 30F for several hours with ZR and a place like ORH is 40F. But usually those type of events are very transitory....the ZR changes to rain within a few hours.

The longer duration ZR events up here all require strong ageostrophic northerly flow and usually that means it's going to be strong through the lower 2000-2500 feet in the atmosphere, so we end up with higher elevations actually doing better until you reach like 2500-3000 feet or so when the temp starts rising again.

Not to be overly fastidious ... but, I think it depends also on mass-field orientation.

What I mean is, the trajectory angle of the overriding warm column (at its particular given temperature/DP mixing ratio) plays a factor in it's 'erosion' capacitance.  A WSW override doesn't need 'as strong' a due N a-geo, to hold cold in.  But a due S one, would time the cold retreat/moderation at the surface, inland, faster. 

Perhaps a key ratio can be derived, ..like, resulting in 1 in the arithmetic;    1.1 results in warm air winning sooner...  .9 results in cold air overwhelming and going more pellet ptypes.   Pseudo science to make the point -

Sufficient influx of DP to offset latent heat of phase change, is in just the right proportion to erosion ( in and out in balance), is all it is needed, and matters less characterizing either side of the boundary as strong or weak, just don't clobber the other side and the icing is static

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Massive juiced southern stream system slamming up into a marginal polar high in Quebec. It had very solid ageo flow. The only reason it wasn't way worse for areas closer to Boston and down into CT/NRI was the airmass was just a little too marginal. The synoptic setup was good though...and we even had a mesolow that forms to the east of BOS and went into the gulf of Maine....if the airmass had been like 2-3F colder, then even into metro Boston prob would have had a lot of ice and the 128 belt would have been decimated....and certainly your area to Kevin's too....but both of you missed out by like 0.5-1F....razor thin margin.

Here is the loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us1212.php

 

My sister in law in Charlton 5 miles away got slammed and lost power for over a week, we were right on the edge.

[Typhoon Tip]

2008 ?

Yeah, the aspect of that even that stood out to me was how the fringe townships like Acton and Littleton... Maynard ...basically between towns along/asride I-495 that were below the bigger accretion level, lost power for a day or two ...due - it turned out - to compensating grid drag effects.  

We started blue glow buzzing the night horizons all around us as transformers started domino-ing, shorting out from current reroutes - I thought that was fascinating.

As it were, in the morning we had about 1/4" of accretion - interestingly ... - along just the tops of all tree canopies in town, but from mid tree heights to the ground was just damp with no ice.  No ice on the car tops or windows, either.  That's about as "marginal incarnate" as is imaginably can be demonstrate by an open natural setting.. weird.  Never had seen a melt line literally 30 feet off the ground like that.   Either way, ... 1/4" isn't enough typically to induce a whole town outage...and we were told that it was drag on the system from the drain.  

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Massive juiced southern stream system slamming up into a marginal polar high in Quebec. It had very solid ageo flow. The only reason it wasn't way worse for areas closer to Boston and down into CT/NRI was the airmass was just a little too marginal. The synoptic setup was good though...and we even had a mesolow that forms to the east of BOS and went into the gulf of Maine....if the airmass had been like 2-3F colder, then even into metro Boston prob would have had a lot of ice and the 128 belt would have been decimated....and certainly your area to Kevin's too....but both of you missed out by like 0.5-1F....razor thin margin.

Here is the loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us1212.php

 

Farther north we had similar 2m temps and precip - rates & total - but accreted maybe 0.25".  Must've been a skinnier cold surface layer.

In the Jan 1953 ice storm in NNJ that probably triggered my interest in trees and weather, every tall tree near our home at 700' lost branches, often most of them, and a few trees snapped like breaking a pencil.  (Noisier, though)   In the next town, 2-3 miles north and 300' lower, it was mainly a cold rain.  Hilltops above 800' had numerous "asparagus trees", naked stems with the lost branches piled around the base.  It was nearly as severe as Jan 1998 though far far smaller in extent, limited to the hilly country N and W from NYC.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

2008 ?

Yeah, the aspect of that even that stood out to me was how the fringe townships like Acton and Littleton... Maynard ...basically between towns along/asride I-495 that were below the bigger accretion level, lost power for a day or two ...due - it turned out - to compensating grid drag effects.  

We started blue glow buzzing the night horizons all around us as transformers started domino-ing, shorting out from current reroutes - I thought that was fascinating.

As it were, in the morning we had about 1/4" of accretion - interestingly ... - along just the tops of all tree canopies in town, but from mid tree heights to the ground was just damp with no ice.  No ice on the car tops or windows, either.  That's about as "marginal incarnate" as is imaginably can be demonstrate by an open natural setting.. weird.  Never had seen a melt line literally 30 feet off the ground like that.   Either way, ... 1/4" isn't enough typically to induce a whole town outage...and we were told that it was drag on the system from the drain.  

I noticed that in Andover too that day. I think part of it, is due to wind just advecting air that isn't latently rotting at 32.000001F. IOW, get a little off the ground and you'll probably get a nice breeze of 31.5F air, vs near the ground where the air is stale and rotting at 32.000001F. 

 

KORH had this phenomenon on roids where the T/TD was maybe 2-3F apart. They weren't in the clouds even in this setup. So you had a 20kt NE wind of like 30/27 or something like that. Just continuously advecting in prime icing air.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that in Andover too that day. I think part of it, is due to wind just advecting air that isn't latently rotting at 32.000001F. IOW, get a little off the ground and you'll probably get a nice breeze of 31.5F air, vs near the ground where the air is stale and rotting at 32.000001F. 

 

KORH had this phenomenon on roids where the T/TD was maybe 2-3F apart. They weren't in the clouds even in this setup. So you had a 20kt NE wind of like 30/27 or something like that. Just continuously advecting in prime icing air.

I vote a new definition be employed hence forth:  'The Raymond Effect'

Anyone that asks ... direct them to your post and prefix, "for example"

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that in Andover too that day. I think part of it, is due to wind just advecting air that isn't latently rotting at 32.000001F. IOW, get a little off the ground and you'll probably get a nice breeze of 31.5F air, vs near the ground where the air is stale and rotting at 32.000001F. 

 

KORH had this phenomenon on roids where the T/TD was maybe 2-3F apart. They weren't in the clouds even in this setup. So you had a 20kt NE wind of like 30/27 or something like that. Just continuously advecting in prime icing air.

Yep, this is always my favorite pic I took during the storm....look at the icicles....they are not pointing straight down. The wind ripping from 20 knots out of the northeast did that

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, this is always my favorite pic I took during the storm....look at the icicles....they are not pointing straight down. The wind ripping from 20 knots out of the northeast did that

 

Yeah you and Dan Leonard had some epic pics. For someone like myself who didn't see any icing...it still was an exciting event from a weather standpoint. Just such a anomalous event. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, this is always my favorite pic I took during the storm....look at the icicles....they are not pointing straight down. The wind ripping from 20 knots out of the northeast did that

 

That’s still nuts, your pics from that event are still some of the best icestorm damage I’ve seen.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, this is always my favorite pic I took during the storm....look at the icicles....they are not pointing straight down. The wind ripping from 20 knots out of the northeast did that

 

This picture always reminds me of Mt Washington

[CoastalWx]

One of the last texts I think he said to me was, "this is going to be bad," as shot gun blasts when off.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s still nuts, your pics from that event are still some of the best icestorm damage I’ve seen.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One of the last texts I think he said to me was, "this is going to be bad," as shot gun blasts when off.

Yep, the funny part about that was about an hour or two earlier, i had gone for a walk and noticed the ice accreting decently, but still a decent amount of runoff of the water. I made the comment on the forum "I think we dodged a bullet"....but then all hell started breaking loose not long after that....LOL. I lost power like 20 minutes after that post, and then another hour or so after that the shotgun blasts started.

 

Here's a couple more from that one....I'll have to go back and post all of them again at some point since the old forum is where they used to be and it doesn't exist anymore.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yep, the funny part about that was about an hour or two earlier, i had gone for a walk and noticed the ice accreting decently, but still a decent amount of runoff of the water. I made the comment on the forum "I think we dodged a bullet"....but then all hell started breaking loose not long after that....LOL. I lost power like 20 minutes after that post, and then another hour or so after that the shotgun blasts started.

 

Here's a couple more from that one....I'll have to go back and post all of them again at some point since the old forum is where they used to be and it doesn't exist anymore.

 

 

I think I have them saved somewhere too...lol. Maybe FB or something.

[Damage In Tolland]

That is all I ask for here . Please let that happen here. It’s not a huge ask . 

[Typhoon Tip]

wait a sec ... do you realize?  that was 15 f'n years ago.                                           FIF                                          TEEN

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That is all I ask for here . Please let that happen here. It’s not a huge ask . 

You should be fortunate you live on one of the most safest places for damage. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

wait a sec ... do you realize?  that was 15 f'n years ago.                                           FIF                                          TEEN

Well 13 haha.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That is all I ask for here . Please let that happen here. It’s not a huge ask . 

"I'm only asking for a once in 50 to 100 year event"