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November Discussion


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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like near 2k? That’s some good accumulating snow.

Yeah.  It's up there.  The irony is that last year we got smoked by an upslope event Nov 2-3 and I had 10" in my yard.  It was the only storm all winter to add 10" depth in one go of it last season in the village.

We were laughing today how about much fun everyone was having with this snow, but thinking back to the fact that even the local valleys got smoked last year in a cold storm.  It's nothing unusual for right now, but we do like seeing it.

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Good times.  BTV AFD loves it.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
755 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 635 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall fcst in good shape this
evening with crnt radar showing a small pocket of enhanced
precip weakening acrs eastern Chittenden and Addison Counties.
Crnt fcst of chc pops for this seems reasonable, based on
limited areal coverage. Otherwise, enjoyed the pics into the
office today from PF, indicating snow accumulations of around 2
inches at 1,500 feet and near 6 inches at 3,300 feet on the east
side of Mansfield. Tonight fcst concerns wl be clouds and
impacts on temps. IR satl imagery shows some breaks in the
overcast acrs portions of the area, so anticipate partly cloudy
skies, but with some clouds/winds not expecting temps to
completely bottom out. Thinking near 20F SLK/NEK to near 30F
Champlain Valley with mid/upper teens at summits (Whiteface
Summit already 21F), good for the snow making operations at
nearby resorts. All covered well.
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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good times.  BTV AFD loves it.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
755 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 635 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall fcst in good shape this
evening with crnt radar showing a small pocket of enhanced
precip weakening acrs eastern Chittenden and Addison Counties.
Crnt fcst of chc pops for this seems reasonable, based on
limited areal coverage. Otherwise, enjoyed the pics into the
office today from PF, indicating snow accumulations of around 2
inches at 1,500 feet and near 6 inches at 3,300 feet on the east
side of Mansfield. Tonight fcst concerns wl be clouds and
impacts on temps. IR satl imagery shows some breaks in the
overcast acrs portions of the area, so anticipate partly cloudy
skies, but with some clouds/winds not expecting temps to
completely bottom out. Thinking near 20F SLK/NEK to near 30F
Champlain Valley with mid/upper teens at summits (Whiteface
Summit already 21F), good for the snow making operations at
nearby resorts. All covered well.

Great stuff PF; love those BTV mets!

BTVLogo.jpg.279cb607717e9aab74c9e9775422b3af.jpg

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8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The cool wave for the 3-9th has moderated down the stretch - sorry it has...

That is the 2nd time this has happened since October 20 or so -...

One can wonder if the latter November idea does the same thing - perfectly valid. 

At least for me and whatever I said... that much is worth the question based on seasonal trend - albeit early .. admittedly.  If this were Vegas I might put money down as a pass-over bet between bigger games...

Part of the problem is, that's been doing that in the models for years now.  Euro... GFS ?  doesn't matter.  Any cold, hot, storm or phone # I get from a girl at a f'n pub, overwhelmingly verify something less than initially advertised. 

We'll see - we may end up cooler out whence but I'd be little surprised at this point if it is as deep as EPS variance.  It'll probably be on the warmer inner curve of that mean if that last 7 years has any meaning

Not worried in the least...cold shots are going to underperform for probably a few more week, as there isn't much of a source yet.

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