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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Sun actually breaking through here.  I put the odds at very low that things will drying out enough for blowing the leaves though

Took this picture this morning at sunrise when I let the dog out. I'm still mowing every 3-4 days here and the maples just started changing... My overnight low was 58 and my low for the month is 46. My garden is still going strong. Best year ever for my cannabis as well. 

20211031-074340.jpg

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Man ..that is impressive.

KFIT is +19 on the low for today -so far.  We may 'bootleg' that lower prior to midnight.  Not abundantly obvious by how much that saves the absurdity of +19 ...  

The high is so far 64, ...this time of year, with billowing dark bases under the earlier zenith, that's probably about it.  So figure +10 for high. 

Just looking at the NAM grid ..those numerical values don't lend to much cool advection to offset prior to midnight.  We may still make 47 say ...but we'd still be talking about a +14 type of total diurnal departure - maybe.  wow

 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has been awful. GFS has been the king. We are going to have fun this winter with the models.

I wish that were true.   Never count on a forecast beyond d4 but I think I the euro is still king d0-4?   GFS will do what she’s already done multiple times this season-dampen coastals until go time and then get a clue.   This has been a trend for decades.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nice that the euro is catching on to the 11/6 storm being suppressed , gfs figured that out 3 days ago

Today is gorgeous 

not shocked - personally...

Obviously the comparison between the two guidance types is your point - true...but beyond that, the Euro has tended to over curve the flow D5+ ... probably if thinking back fairly and objectively, it is a bias that really began that one critical upgrade that took place on August 1, 1979

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not shocked - personally...

Obviously the comparison between the two guidance types is your point - true...but beyond that, the Euro has tended to over curve the flow D5+ ... probably if thinking back fairly and objectively, it is a bias that really began that one critical upgrade that took place on August 1, 1979

 

42 years ago?

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