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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 11/25/2021 at 8:53 PM, PhineasC said:

WWA for up to 9 inches, although my P&C goes even higher than that. What is the threshold for a warning up here? 10?

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Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. 

Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV.

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  On 11/25/2021 at 9:04 PM, OceanStWx said:

Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. 

Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV.

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Makes sense, thanks for the info. 

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  On 11/25/2021 at 9:04 PM, OceanStWx said:

Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. 

Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV.

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Yeah they literally broke up the zones for upslope style events back when I was at UVM I think.  

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  On 11/25/2021 at 9:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

How’s the Froude numbers? Doesn’t seem like it would be relegated to the mountain totally.

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It starts super blocked tomorrow and you can see it in the QPF maps.  Like 0.50 Froude.  But then it opens up to 0.80-1.20 which is smack centered over the crest.

I noticed the Froude jumps (unblocks itself) as soon as the real CAA comes in.  Froude opens up as 850mb temps drop it looked like in this event.  Super blocked at -4C and then critical or unblocked once -9C or lower hits.

Makes sense though that stronger advection would lead to more freely flowing air.

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  On 11/25/2021 at 9:35 PM, powderfreak said:

It starts super blocked tomorrow and you can see it in the QPF maps.  Like 0.50 Froude.  But then it opens up to 0.80-1.20 which is smack centered over the crest.

I noticed the Froude jumps (unblocks itself) as soon as the real CAA comes in.  Froude opens up as 850mb temps drop it looked like in this event.  Super blocked at -4C and then critical or unblocked once -9C or lower hits.

Makes sense though that stronger advection would lead to more freely flowing air.

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Yeah makes sense there. CAA lifts the inversion. Nice man. Let’s get 5-6” at the condo. 

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  On 11/26/2021 at 1:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

NAM loves the comma head for Legro. Even into NE MA. 

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Monday too. :weenie:

  On 11/26/2021 at 2:04 PM, dendrite said:

3k goes a little wild in spots

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I feel like the 3km makes a little more sense if you are purely taking the clown maps. I'm not sure I'm buying 3-4 at PWM just yet.

  On 11/26/2021 at 2:19 PM, PhineasC said:

The regular NAM is terrible for NH.

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Somebody is going to get skunked between the light stuff/upslope and the coastal taking over. Probably in the LCI/IZG to AUG corridor.

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