OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 8:19 PM, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM gone wild for tomorrow night. That’s prob like 3-5” for Ray, lol. 1-3” for much of the rest of E/C MA Expand Happy hour for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 8:53 PM, PhineasC said: WWA for up to 9 inches, although my P&C goes even higher than that. What is the threshold for a warning up here? 10? Expand Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:04 PM, OceanStWx said: Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV. Expand Makes sense, thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 That’s a nice 1-4” for much of N and C CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 I’ll take 1-3” tomorrow night and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:04 PM, OceanStWx said: Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV. Expand Yeah they literally broke up the zones for upslope style events back when I was at UVM I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ll take 1-3” tomorrow night and run Expand Clown maps so be happy if you get half that. Still though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Clown maps so be happy if you get half that. Still though. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:20 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah they literally broke up the zones for upslope style events back when I was at UVM I think. Expand Like I have 3 at BML and 11 at MWN. They're in the same zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:22 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Expand #Scooterknows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:24 PM, OceanStWx said: Like I have 3 at BML and 11 at MWN. They're in the same zone. Expand I think they have 4-5” in Stowe Village and like 19” at the mountain lol. They are 5 miles away from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Honestly Tblizz, if you get an inch be happy. To get it in this setup in late Novie ain’t easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:26 PM, powderfreak said: I think they have 4-5” in Stowe Village and like 19” at the mountain lol. They are 5 miles away from each other. Expand How’s the Froude numbers? Doesn’t seem like it would be relegated to the mountain totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 If anyone east of 95 in MA is expecting more than 1" you'll be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:27 PM, CoastalWx said: How’s the Froude numbers? Doesn’t seem like it would be relegated to the mountain totally. Expand It starts super blocked tomorrow and you can see it in the QPF maps. Like 0.50 Froude. But then it opens up to 0.80-1.20 which is smack centered over the crest. I noticed the Froude jumps (unblocks itself) as soon as the real CAA comes in. Froude opens up as 850mb temps drop it looked like in this event. Super blocked at -4C and then critical or unblocked once -9C or lower hits. Makes sense though that stronger advection would lead to more freely flowing air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 9:35 PM, powderfreak said: It starts super blocked tomorrow and you can see it in the QPF maps. Like 0.50 Froude. But then it opens up to 0.80-1.20 which is smack centered over the crest. I noticed the Froude jumps (unblocks itself) as soon as the real CAA comes in. Froude opens up as 850mb temps drop it looked like in this event. Super blocked at -4C and then critical or unblocked once -9C or lower hits. Makes sense though that stronger advection would lead to more freely flowing air. Expand Yeah makes sense there. CAA lifts the inversion. Nice man. Let’s get 5-6” at the condo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 GFS looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 This is a sounding from the 0z 3km NAM at 8 PM Friday in Middlesex County Mass. That'd snow good... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Some of the modeling still dropping an inch or two in places . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 10:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Some of the modeling still dropping an inch or two in places . Expand You may get that if enough moisture wraps around. NE MA the other spot and hunchy could grab a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 10:58 AM, CoastalWx said: You may get that if enough moisture wraps around. NE MA the other spot and hunchy could grab a few. Expand Down and out this morning. Not getting hopes up for more than a few flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 11:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Down and out this morning. Not getting hopes up for more than a few flurries Expand No reason to. Only thing down and out right now is my belly still from yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 11:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Down and out this morning. Not getting hopes up for more than a few flurries Expand There will be plenty of opportunities to make big calls this season that don’t come to fruition 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 11:12 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Down and out this morning. Not getting hopes up for more than a few flurries Expand Raiders ran lots of down and outs FTW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 NAM loves the comma head for Legro. Even into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 1:50 PM, Ginx snewx said: Raiders ran lots of down and outs FTW Expand This year, I’m thankful for my Raiders not choking away a prime time game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 3k goes a little wild in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 1:50 PM, Ginx snewx said: Raiders ran lots of down and outs FTW Expand You are brutal lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 2:04 PM, dendrite said: 3k goes a little wild in spots Expand The regular NAM is terrible for NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 1:58 PM, CoastalWx said: NAM loves the comma head for Legro. Even into NE MA. Expand Monday too. On 11/26/2021 at 2:04 PM, dendrite said: 3k goes a little wild in spots Expand I feel like the 3km makes a little more sense if you are purely taking the clown maps. I'm not sure I'm buying 3-4 at PWM just yet. On 11/26/2021 at 2:19 PM, PhineasC said: The regular NAM is terrible for NH. Expand Somebody is going to get skunked between the light stuff/upslope and the coastal taking over. Probably in the LCI/IZG to AUG corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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