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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Large nor'easter potential Either Nov 5-6 (EPS) or Nov 8-9 (GEFS).

00z/31 ensemble cycles attached to compare and let's see what happens.  May result in a period of snow down to I84?

Check the confluence in se Canada...i like that (dual jet- RRQ Canadian confluence and LF of the se USA trough).

EPS left-first, GEFS right-last. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-10-31 at 5.54.03 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-10-31 at 5.56.27 AM.png

Possible snower 

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Weeklies show some blocking up near NE Quebec shifting into Davis Straits. However troughing up near AK will limit any cold. Or at least help to limit....doesn’t mean you can’t get a cold shot or two. But that isn’t a cold and snow look as modeled. Hopefully it changes in December.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies show some blocking up near NE Quebec shifting into Davis Straits. However troughing up near AK will limit any cold. Or at least help to limit....doesn’t mean you can’t get a cold shot or two. But that isn’t a cold and snow look as modeled. Hopefully it changes in December.

Anything prior to Jan 1st is gravy here.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies show some blocking up near NE Quebec shifting into Davis Straits. However troughing up near AK will limit any cold. Or at least help to limit....doesn’t mean you can’t get a cold shot or two. But that isn’t a cold and snow look as modeled. Hopefully it changes in December.

Remember when November was supposed to be cold and wintry?

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies show some blocking up near NE Quebec shifting into Davis Straits. However troughing up near AK will limit any cold. Or at least help to limit....doesn’t mean you can’t get a cold shot or two. But that isn’t a cold and snow look as modeled. Hopefully it changes in December.

Ya last week they were looking better, but next week it will change again too. Anything farther out than two weeks is suspect anyway.  

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, as I just posted that was just a week ago. So don’t worry, next week or Thursday whenever they come out, they’ll look better again to suck you back in. Lol. 

They never looked exceptionally cold or wintry though. It looks like things improve late month.

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:yikes:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gray ME
816 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

MEC001-005-017-031-NHC001-003-011-013-015-017-311600-
/O.EXT.KGYX.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-211031T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Androscoggin ME-Cumberland ME-Oxford ME-York ME-Belknap NH-
Carroll NH-Hillsborough NH-Merrimack NH-Rockingham NH-Strafford
NH-
816 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

The National Weather Service in Gray has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Androscoggin County in southwestern Maine...
  Cumberland County in southwestern Maine...
  York County in southwestern Maine...
  South Central Oxford County in western Maine...
  Southeastern Belknap County in central New Hampshire...
  Eastern Merrimack County in central New Hampshire...
  Strafford County in central New Hampshire...
  Southeastern Carroll County in northern New Hampshire...
  Northeastern Hillsborough County in southern New Hampshire...
  Rockingham County in southern New Hampshire...

* Until noon EDT.

* At 816 AM EDT, Local law enforcement and weather spotters indicate
  several roads remaining impassible. This will be the case until
  the rainfall runoff ends. Small streams may overflow their banks.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Portland, Derry, Rochester, South Portland, Auburn, Biddeford,
  Portsmouth, Westbrook, Hampton, and Durham, Saco, and Old Orchard
  Beach.

Between 3 and 7 inches of rain has fallen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 7134 4402 7082 4409 7032 4367 6988
      4368 6996 4350 7019 4348 7031 4348 7030
      4348 7029 4343 7028 4333 7038 4329 7052
      4315 7054 4284 7077 4289 7093 4286 7103
      4281 7107 4281 7117 4274 7118 4274 7125

$$

mle
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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

:yikes:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gray ME
816 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

MEC001-005-017-031-NHC001-003-011-013-015-017-311600-
/O.EXT.KGYX.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-211031T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Androscoggin ME-Cumberland ME-Oxford ME-York ME-Belknap NH-
Carroll NH-Hillsborough NH-Merrimack NH-Rockingham NH-Strafford
NH-
816 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

The National Weather Service in Gray has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Androscoggin County in southwestern Maine...
  Cumberland County in southwestern Maine...
  York County in southwestern Maine...
  South Central Oxford County in western Maine...
  Southeastern Belknap County in central New Hampshire...
  Eastern Merrimack County in central New Hampshire...
  Strafford County in central New Hampshire...
  Southeastern Carroll County in northern New Hampshire...
  Northeastern Hillsborough County in southern New Hampshire...
  Rockingham County in southern New Hampshire...

* Until noon EDT.

* At 816 AM EDT, Local law enforcement and weather spotters indicate
  several roads remaining impassible. This will be the case until
  the rainfall runoff ends. Small streams may overflow their banks.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Portland, Derry, Rochester, South Portland, Auburn, Biddeford,
  Portsmouth, Westbrook, Hampton, and Durham, Saco, and Old Orchard
  Beach.

Between 3 and 7 inches of rain has fallen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 7134 4402 7082 4409 7032 4367 6988
      4368 6996 4350 7019 4348 7031 4348 7030
      4348 7029 4343 7028 4333 7038 4329 7052
      4315 7054 4284 7077 4289 7093 4286 7103
      4281 7107 4281 7117 4274 7118 4274 7125

$$

mle

Wow. Who got over 5”? TWSS.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone needs to go to GYX and cut those dam trees down around the radar. It’s unusable for towns around Portland. Can’t even see radar estimated precipitation. Fook the trees.

I'm limited to what i can use from there site as i'm to close to the radar.

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