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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Would have been interesting to see the Euro solution minus the southern stream energy it incorporated. Certainly seems to resemble the UKMET if one removes the southern energy.

It's weird in way, because these southern streams waves typically enhance ...not take a way.  heh.  must be negative interference in this case

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Fwiw -

Chris is right ...  quick and dirty annotation here to show that this is just rotated clockwise too much in the N-S total trough axis, with the N stream S/W and southern stream wave clearly identifiable.  This is the 12z Euro, at 108 hrs

image.thumb.png.b95aea670e12eb5ef000d0e662e97226.png

If the blue correction were to happen in future runs, then a cyclonic rotation ( total) and capture would lead more likely to a comprehensive early season winter threat. 

Considering the 00z was smearing the southern stream almost entirely mooshed S toward Brownsville, and skipping the N stream through like a rock off a pond... this is a step in the right direction for enthusiast.

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On 10/24/2021 at 8:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Figured I'd take the opportunity to start this, while many are preoccupied with the next underachieving wind event.

This will be the transition month, as the Pacific jet relaxes. We should begin to see a cold reservoir couple with the blocking that has been rendered useless throughout October. I would say shot of some snowfall for many is better than climo.

See ya 11/20.

image.png.39ef2de8bf786eacdb73b96159a2ed0c.png

 

On 10/28/2021 at 8:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Underachieving lol

 

On 10/28/2021 at 9:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I stated it would underachieve for the interior, which it did. I never debated immediate coast and the cape. I specified that in the appropriate thread.

@Ginx snewx, I meant to revisit this, as per some of my observations, it certainly did not underachieve in my area. There was a tree down in front of my gym in Wilmington, and the wind ripped the aluminum protective cover off of my central air pipe outside. I was wrong on this...just wanted to clarify.

Pretty impressive.

My bad.

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On 10/29/2021 at 3:12 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said it in the nor Easter thread.

I lost power for 30 min, which is not uncommon. It was not a memorable event over the interior. Not all wind threats underachieve inland....hurricane Gloria and Feb 2010 to name a couple, certainly did not.

Fail.

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On 11/2/2021 at 8:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a matter of when, not if. It's not going to remain mild far into December...you can bank that. Second half of Novie should get it done.

 

On 11/7/2021 at 4:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not sure why the angst...looks right on cue. I won't even bother with guidance packages until 12/1. No need for models now...I know where we are headed.

 

On 11/8/2021 at 10:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone in SNE (MA, CT, RI) will get plowable before Novie ends...that is my call.

Better-

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