Winter Wizard Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Pretty decent shift north. Not far off from being interesting all the way to SNE but need that vort to dig a little more and pop sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Merrimack? That’s CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 GFS still not bad here we take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHDrySlot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: What does @NHDrySlot think? Big event for the Greens and Whites especially NW facing slopes. Stowe and Jay Peak should jack. Good setup for Cannon too... unfortunately Wildcat may be sucking on exhaust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s CNE That's his point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, NHDrySlot said: Big event for the Greens and Whites especially NW facing slopes. Stowe and Jay Peak should jack. Good setup for Cannon too... unfortunately Wildcat may be sucking on exhaust. 12z was nice at Wildcat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHDrySlot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 12z was nice at Wildcat. Yeah Friday event is big for NW facing slopes, Monday event per GFS would be great for Wildcat. Ample cold weather to follow, could actually be a good start to ski season for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 A few inches to whiten the landscape would be nice. Last few winters have been mostly front end stuff before things fizzled later on in the winter. Haven't cracked 45" since at least 2017-18. If it weren't for the February snow storm this past winter would have followed suit. Rather ramp up gradually, peak mid-winter and ramp down (in April ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Ukie buries nrn CT to 128 N and W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 That's a lot of QPF on the uncle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 UKMET not backing down. Multi day bender for our uncle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Damn over 2 inches liquid here on the second best model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 If this thing were to dig a bit sooner, you'd have a Miller B mauling vs a narrow area of heavy precip that does blossom eventually way up north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 GGEM is weaker but still an advisory event for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 41 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Pretty decent shift north. Not far off from being interesting all the way to SNE but need that vort to dig a little more and pop sooner. Yeah... Thing is, it's a specter ( I've noticed - ) that began to really emerge on that transition from 12z yesterday, comparing to the ensuing 18z run ... There was a bodily shift in the total synoptic manifold of the flow structure that back-ward dug the S/W back SW along the isohypses, just enough to make one wonder if a trend was in play. 00z run comes out and it's nukey - Then the 06z backs away slightly but still delivers...now this? Seems if there is a legit signal in here, ( for one ) the models are sruggling with it - duh. But it may be that it's real but 'newish' in latching on so a few unstable runs? I guess more of a forecast philosophy of approach. but yeah, storm forming would benefit from more 00z'esque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 There's two pieces of energy diving in from the plains...the northern piece digging more is associated with the bigger solutions. It's really obvious on the Ukie, the older GFS runs and actually the 84h NAM at 12z looks like those bigger runs. The weaker runs have the energy more separated...particularly the northern piece is not digging as much in those weaker solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 The surface pressure/QPF evolution is still dandy in my 'preferential' perspective. Heh. I just mean, on November 24, a 120+ hour model look like that ...I'll take it. Entertaining enough. It would have been ( and may yet be gosh forbid ) far worse if the run dump the look altogether. This still fits inside 'noise expectation.' The differences between 00z and 12z are easily correcting toward either solution. I just wonder if/when consensus hints at emerging - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Recent dryness and low humidity is killing my sinuses Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: This could end up a river east deal in SNE You can also end up a river West thing, could also end up Northern New England, could also end up Eastern New England. The point is it is only Wednesday. How many years have we been coming on this forum.. and how many times do the models change when it's 5 days out. I've learned a long time ago to be optimistic, but cautious when it's 5 days out. Sometimes it works out in our favor and sometimes it doesn't. Put your lips on that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Looks like I have to get a plowing person for my driveway. Don't know who my Dad used. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 All I want is thunder snow weekly each month of the winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: All I want is thunder snow weekly each month of the winter Okay Jim Cantore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's two pieces of energy diving in from the plains...the northern piece digging more is associated with the bigger solutions. It's really obvious on the Ukie, the older GFS runs and actually the 84h NAM at 12z looks like those bigger runs. The weaker runs have the energy more separated...particularly the northern piece is not digging as much in those weaker solutions. Ensembles concur. Lots of sensitivity to that particular shortwave. It's almost traceable back to initialization today south of the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Looks like I have to get a plowing person for my driveway. Don't know who my Dad used. Use the Angi app if you need help. Lots of folks using that to get business (used the be Angi’s List) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Ensembles concur. Lots of sensitivity to that particular shortwave. It's almost traceable back to initialization today south of the Aleutians. Yup and I'm noticing that the GFS is sort of on-off with amount of constructive interference - 'sensitivity' you mention seems related to how proficient that intermediary phase-space is, which is also in part guided by the wave strength in the atmosphere as those two interact. If the lead piece is boss, we end up 12z ish... Lag is boss, perhaps more 00z like. I mean I'm just comparing the last several cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 What the hell is going on with the Euro? Looks like it's going to phase all 3 shortwaves this run...or at least try. No other run tries to phase in the lagging southern stream s/w in the southwest US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Northern branch energy seems a little stronger and has a better angle of approach through 87 hrs on 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What the hell is going on with the Euro? Looks like it's going to phase all 3 shortwaves this run...or at least try. No other run tries to phase in the lagging southern stream s/w in the southwest US. Ha this might be a good one, Partial phase anyways it seems lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What the hell is going on with the Euro? Looks like it's going to phase all 3 shortwaves this run...or at least try. No other run tries to phase in the lagging southern stream s/w in the southwest US. That will nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 OH yeah Will - that sucker is probably heading for an entertaining solution haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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