November Discussion

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And then there was one 

All rake here, I have 2 kids capable of raking...I rake the heavily accumulated areas, then bag mulch the rest with the mower so I can add them to my compost and garden beds.

[Brewbeer]

I have both blower (electric) and a couple of rakes, but use my lawn mower with bag attached to do most of the leaf clean-up.  Just run 'em over and dump the bag.  Makes good compost.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Rains to Maines and snow for Tblizz?

Tamarack throwing his laptop against his healthiest spruce tree while Tblizz bitches his way to 6"+ of mashed potatoes.

[Ginx snewx]

Highest depth Blue Hill

1	2015-05-01	45	0
2	1969-05-01	43	0
3	1996-05-01	33	0
-	1978-05-01	33	0
5	2011-05-01	31	1
-	2003-05-01	31	0
7	1960-05-01	30	1
8	1961-05-01	29	0
9	1997-05-01	27	0
10	1977-05-01	26

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Agree. I don’t know, I thought the overnight runs improved some and weren’t too bad. Pretty blocky. This early in the season that can be the kind of pattern that can be pretty anomalous good or bad and often lead to a sneaky event even if swings in temp are pretty wild. Seemed like the Pig backed off too. 
 

The early pattern has really only meant something to the ski areas. Gonna be a slow start. But I’m sure they’d sacrifice that for a good holiday season and meat of the season. 

The pattern is still kind of ugly for the very end of the month and first few days of December....it's not a total torch, but we're losing a lot of the cold in Canada on that look....but if we keep just enough PNA ridging and some remnant NAO blocking/weakness, it can work. The good news though is it looked like at the VERY end of the ensemble runs last night, the Aleution/Bering ridge was trying to rebuild which would be ideal as we go further into early December. But I don't think people should be surprised if we struggle a bit the first week of the month should the temporary AK/Bering vortex set itself up in late November.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern is still kind of ugly for the very end of the month and first few days of December....it's not a total torch, but we're losing a lot of the cold in Canada on that look....but if we keep just enough PNA ridging and some remnant NAO blocking/weakness, it can work. The good news though is it looked like at the VERY end of the ensemble runs last night, the Aleution/Bering ridge was trying to rebuild which would be ideal as we go further into early December. But I don't think people should be surprised if we struggle a bit the first week of the month should the temporary AK/Bering vortex set itself up in late November.

Yeah agree. Still may be ok in the far interior I suppose. The mean sort of hinted at something interior around day 10. Luckily it’s not a total chinook.

[Baroclinic Zone]

27 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Already 61 here with a low of 58. Many spots are hitting 70 today. Upton has me for a high of 68. 

61.7 here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have one. Just not a backpack blower.

I had a back back for years but I had to replace it this year. There were none available at any of my local stores so I ended up buying a gas powered handheld and I think I like it better.

[PhineasC]

I have noticed that cutters around here always end up with the rain in a N/S training orientation over the area which seems to prolong the misery. These things sweep through much faster down south in my experience. You guys really suck with cutters. It's also always painful to be 50 and rain while it is snowing someplace like KY for hours. God I hate these things like what's coming next week.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve had one for 2 winters . This will be third 

But you still sculpt the snow blown piles with a shovel, correct?   Or am I the only one that does that?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

28 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

All rake here, I have 2 kids capable of raking...I rake the heavily accumulated areas, then bag mulch the rest with the mower so I can add them to my compost and garden beds.

You have to use a rake to clear gardens and against fences.

My OCD neighbor has over an acre of lawn and gardens and does it all with a rake and tarp. I think it is like therapy for him. This dude goes around with a bucket picking up individual leaves and pine needles in the summer. 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

But you still sculpt the snow blown piles with a shovel, correct?   Or am I the only one that does that?

We haven't had a great winter since he bought one.

[Cold Miser]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We haven had a great winter since he bought one.

Yup. The curse is real.

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have noticed that cutters around here always end up with the rain in a N/S training orientation over the area which seems to prolong the misery. These things sweep through much faster down south in my experience. You guys really suck with cutters. It's also always painful to be 50 and rain while it is snowing someplace like KY for hours. God I hate these things like what's coming next week.

A lot of times we just end up getting prolonged CAD on cutters....then a brief warm sector. Probably not happening next week, but then again it's only November. Much rarer for it to happen deeper into winter.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern is still kind of ugly for the very end of the month and first few days of December....it's not a total torch, but we're losing a lot of the cold in Canada on that look....but if we keep just enough PNA ridging and some remnant NAO blocking/weakness, it can work. The good news though is it looked like at the VERY end of the ensemble runs last night, the Aleution/Bering ridge was trying to rebuild which would be ideal as we go further into early December. But I don't think people should be surprised if we struggle a bit the first week of the month should the temporary AK/Bering vortex set itself up in late November.

The AK vortex rarely has a short stay though. If we spot it in late fall…we should prep for an unwelcomed extended visit like a MIL during the holidays. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Rains to Maines and snow for Tblizz?

2010 retro storm, Rain at CAR snow in CT, That's the one that sent the rest of winter into the toilet.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The AK vortex rarely has a short stay though. If we spot it in late fall…we should prep for an unwelcomed extended visit like a MIL during the holidays. 

That’s on par with snow in October means a ratter winter.  Ya sometimes it happens…but no science behind that really, all Voo-doo. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What a gorgeous AM.  Upper 50s.  Felt nice stepping outside not having to wear a coat.

Ha ...funny 'acclimation relativity' perspective in play here - 

I mean, you step out side in this on July 10 and you're going, " f*ck this man" and grabbing a jacket.

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ...funny 'acclimation relativity' perspective in play here - 

I mean, you step out side in this on July 10 and you're going, " f*ck this man" and grabbing a jacket.

Summers back broken yet?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You have to use a rake to clear gardens and against fences.

My OCD neighbor has over an acre of lawn and gardens and does it all with a rake and tarp. I think it is like therapy for him. This dude goes around with a bucket picking up individual leaves and pine needles in the summer. 

You moved to Tolland?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Deepest pack to your north in ORH was probably March 2001 but you were likely too far south for that month to eclipse the Jan '96 pack....though you must have come close in early Feb 2011. If you go back far enough, the pack was probably rivaled in Feb 1961. January 1987 got really deep too in N ORH county....prob 40-something inches. I think I measured 43-44" in February 2015, but that was a couple inches shy of March 2001. January 1996 was similar to 2015.

2001 is top 5 here for SDDs and one of 3 to reach 48" (2008 and 2009 the others and Feb 2017 hit 47), but the lateness of the peak was the most anomalous.  The 19" dump on 3/30-31 produced that 48" depth and it was still 47" on 4/1 (as the strongest storm of all slid east and ripped up Newfoundland).  Even in Ft. Kent we never had that much pack on 4/1, though 1984 was only one inch away.
2002-03 was BN thanks to consistent suppression and 2010-11 only average thanks to several near misses.  2007-08 is the clear champ with 3,877 SDDs with 2018-19 (3,441) the only other season above 3K.  That latter season was built on 162 days with 1"+, nearly 2 weeks longer than 2nd place nd based on both the snowy cold Novie and consistent if not heavy snowfalls and BN temps.  Low ratio but cold storms made for a solid pack.
Other big years were 2000-01, 13-14, 16-17 in the 2,800 range; 08-09 and 14-15 in the 2,400s and 17-18 riding a big March to clear 2,000.  Nobody else reached 1,800 and 05-06 the clear bottom at 557.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man what a crazy block later next week. 

Uh...yeeah.   Best advice? In this particular next 6 or so days, do not take any operational rendition too seriously. Not with that giant non-lineary,  back-loading wave exertion in the flow. It's materializing - not already materialized .

( not you per se ... for the general run-to-run enthusiast that may run reactionary tendency. heh)  

But that order of operation means that event next week ...even the one after it perhaps nearing the 28th-30th .. are way way way open to interpretation and future error.  

Pointing out the obvious ... NAOs are notoriously poorly handled in both amplitude and spatial dimensions  -...and also in time, too.  We can say with far more confidence what the mode tendencies ( tho not absolute confidence ) will be.  Not as much for how strong, definitely not where it will bias/anchor. It's a scatter-plot affair.

No one asked me, but ... the GEFs telecon spread overnight is a robust Archembault signal...still, *but* as we know ...signals can at time come and go and sometimes don't cash in. Thing is, there is an interpretation bias there...because a big cyclone could evolve for all this ... not hit here, and people think the signal failed. 

WRONG.   

Strawman, ... perhaps you didn't get the memo but the weather is not here to entertain you specifically ... sometimes you get invited to the VIP lounge. Sometimes you don't.  But the party still happens(ed) whether you are getting the lap-dances. There may be a large gyre stalling too far NE ... sure.  Signal satisfied. 

That other poster ( can't recall whom) noted, the 'polish' of the overnight runs did come into an apparent better coherence/concerted appeal there. Agreed.  If perhaps 'nuanced' in operational runs ( frankly, the Euro looks wrong to me but I may be wrong too - ha).  But that GEFs cluster features now a very heavily multi-member curve-superposition there, with -2.5 SD NAO plunge ( again, where may be the biggest hurdle to determinism...).  While also, the PNA membership is more coalesced around a total two SD change, from -1 to +1 ...  That's a lot. And my hunch is the operational GFS and the cross-guidance look of the Euro, are both flatter than that teleconnector - ...just adds to the uncertainty.

Anyway, live by the GEFs ...die by the GEFs I suppose.  Same holds true for the EPS too..  I do sense though 'weight' is given to the Euro cluster.  I can't say I blame folks for doing so... based on the last 20 years of technology, no. But, mmm... I think huge NAO mode change like that, considering the nature of the beast ..., may or may not manifest in guidance.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tamarack throwing his laptop against his healthiest spruce tree while Tblizz bitches his way to 6"+ of mashed potatoes.

Laptop went back to the state upon retirement and the desktop is too gormy, but otherwise exactly on target.  (Will never reach the late Feb horror of 2010, however.)

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You have to use a rake to clear gardens and against fences.

My OCD neighbor has over an acre of lawn and gardens and does it all with a rake and tarp. I think it is like therapy for him. This dude goes around with a bucket picking up individual leaves and pine needles in the summer. 

Sounds like most folks 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

All rake here, I have 2 kids capable of raking...I rake the heavily accumulated areas, then bag mulch the rest with the mower so I can add them to my compost and garden beds.

Other then the kids (grandkids generally visit after leaf-moving time) that's a precise description of what I do, rake the heavy places into piles, move them onto the 12x10 canvas tarp my FIL bought at Morsan's (NNJ, probably long defunct) 50+ years ago, haul to garden.  Had to pile down short of the garden this year because the leaves fell before the tomatoes got killed, a first for here.  Later I dug part of the carrots and moved leaves to mulch the rest for overwintering.  Fresh carrots in April are a real treat and Bolero (from Johnny's) are super storers.

Edit:  Obviously DIT = "most".  

[weathafella]

We’re leaving leaves ver the winter in some of the flower areas abutting there woods.   Everything else goes Saturday-we instructed the crew to not show up before 11.   Today the town came down the street and sucked up all the leaves on the side of the road.   My dog is going to be disappointed.

[PhineasC]

LOL Thanksgiving week has really gone to shit on the models.

We get a cutter and then it I guess it hits reverse and backs over the area for a second round? 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL Thanksgiving week has really gone to shit on the models.

We get a cutter and then it I guess it hits reverse and backs over the area for a second round? 

It's strange ...

the problem is, a -NAO drills storm track ( climate ) south through the Mid Atlantic; +NAOs are more indicative of cutters and storms going up that way/St L Seaway etc..

This? 

We have a strong trough ejecting through the west during at least a transient, +PNA that is in the process of materializing.  That lends to some uncertainty as to how much "positive feedback" said trough might or might not get enhanced by superposition ...etc..- so there's that. 

But, the earlier cutter happens just before the big -NAO plunge.   So, the track climo suggestion is a splitting in two across the temporal span.  At the start of the period there is tendency for Lakes cutter tracks, that then fades...over the course, the opposite emerges.   It's like the models are executing both plans.  Very interesting for dorks with free-time I suppose..but in practical senses it's not clear to me ( anyway ...) how that latter amplitude will behave and what it will mean.

I've been chiming the last couple of days not to toss that as a possible "fun" ( depending on one's point of view ) player, because these uncertainties above, deny the pragmatics of auto-dissing ... a tact that the psychosis of this engagements seems so uniquely willing to take...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s on par with snow in October means a ratter winter.  Ya sometimes it happens…but no science behind that really, all Voo-doo. 

Actually, there is data/science behind it. If the Pig sets up in late fall, it tends to linger into winter. 

[Greg]

Pray that One-Eyed Pig does not stake a claim in late Fall. Although, I  personally don't think that will materialize like that.