WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna need the good Atlantic look to stay on track....PAC side has trended worse for sure. But that NAO block can make up for a lot of sins if we can get it. That block could be just fantasy too being 10 plus days out. Let’s hope it’s legit…or the wait for any winter weather will go on. Which we all know is not uncommon for late November/early December. But it’d be nice to get on the board come the end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna need the good Atlantic look to stay on track....PAC side has trended worse for sure. But that NAO block can make up for a lot of sins if we can get it. I’d take a favorable PAC any day over a favorable Atlantic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d take a favorable PAC any day over a favorable Atlantic We learned that in 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Said no one Jan 26th 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That block could be just fantasy too being 10 plus days out. Let’s hope it’s legit…or the wait for any winter weather will go on. Which we all know is not uncommon for late November/early December. But it’d be nice to get on the board come the end of November. Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that. I see 3 threats from 11/24 to First week in Dec. Hopefully 1 works out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that. Yea, its not vanishing art this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes it could end up a transient ridge instead of a full block. But there is pretty heavy ensemble support for the block to develop so I don't think it's just something random on an OP run. All models are seeing something. Whether that trends better or worse as we get closer is obviously still up in the air. It's a very good spot to have a block though....esp this early in the season when the polar jet is still north of mid-winter climo....you want something to force shortwaves underneath our latitude and a well-placed block is probably the most efficient way to do that. Thanks for the explanation, it’s appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, its not vanishing art this point. I agree with you…hope you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I see 3 threats from 11/24 to First week in Dec. Hopefully 1 works out Yeah im skeptical of next week's storm mid-week, though I guess if it gets captured perfectly we could have a surprise. It feels like that 11/27-11/30 window might be a little more favorable for this month but things can shift. I'm hopeful the -NAO can go into the first half of December as well because the Pacific doesn't look great to start December, however, because there was already some good cold into Canada, a decent -NAO would suffice for threats. The PAC look has been really volatile the past few days though, so that's something that will probably change on future runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Yup. Let's get a good early-in-early-out winter, take advantage of the low sun angle and Holiday Tidings. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 as of last night's EPS/GEFies, they signal lower Greenland as the -NAO apex. But, 3 days ago it was more westerly oriented, while since then I have also seen it more east toward Iceland. Matters for whatever gets sent east from out west, and encounters any exertion from the NAO. Faster than normal flow, alters the standard model for how the NAO blocking 'exerts a backward force' in the field, too. The NAO modes really are described by the non-linear wave function transmitted downstream out of the momentum/dispersion of the Pacific Rossby signal. Good luck anyone understanding what that means... But, the Pacific is relaying a flattish +PNA expression; that changes the landscape . I still suggest a flatter wave - albeit still of potency - gets ejected. The speed in the flow doesn't lend to steeply plumbed meridian structures. The general stochastic/bad performance in handling NAO to begin with. I agree with Will - it's not likely just some operational canard. The reason is, there is a timed lag/distribution argument in the statistics that proceed -NAO's ... It is varied by the +PNA "resonance," based on wave spacing and amplitude from Tokyo to Boston really. I saw someone's snark there but ... I do wonder if in 1950, that 06z GFS NAO -related Rex structure isn't en mass situated S by 10 latitude. I'm not skeptical of there being a storm. The mass field/synoptic restoring system resulting is going to be hard to escape from happening... whether it is stuff of dreams or something uninspired is 'nother tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 4 hours ago, Lava Rock said: 26.5F. Solid freeze Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 20.8F, heh. Wish my little frost pocket mattered when it comes to coastal rain/snow lines... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Fir the most part November has been Novembery so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Fir the most part November has been Novembery so far. Definitely more sun than usual, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 GFS and Canadian pretty much say hit the snooze button until at least end of month. I don't know why I even look at models, when I can tell the tenor of the latest run, by how infrequently Anthony posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Definitely more sun than usual, I think. Yes and no. We’ve had days and days of wet dank but lately sunnier. Although on most of the sunny days here there has been hours of cloudiness. But yes normally November is darker and more depressing but as winter nears excitement builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes and no. We’ve had days and days of wet dank but lately sunnier. Although on most of the sunny days here there has been hours of cloudiness. But yes normally November is darker and more depressing but as winter nears excitement builds. Yeah, I think WNE has had a few more sunners than you Eastern folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: GFS and Canadian pretty much say hit the snooze button until at least end of month. I don't know why I even look at models, when I can tell the tenor of the latest run, by how infrequently Anthony posts. Seems volatile though from run to run…very changeable as we would expect 7-10 days out. So things can pop/change as we close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Parts of NNE are still in play for something early to mid next week. It's a convoluted looking thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Sorry for the banter but I’m looking for an oral surgeon in BTV area. Our daughter needs to get her impacted wisdom teeth out. Feel free to pm me. TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sorry for the banter but I’m looking for an oral surgeon in BTV area. Our daughter needs to get her impacted wisdom teeth out. Feel free to pm me. TYIA. If you need an oral sturgeon, check Lake Champlain... Sorry, dad joke. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Definitely more sun than usual, I think. Definitely true for here. So far I've recorded 7 sunny, 7 PC and 2 cloudy days this month and today will be PC (sun morn, clouds aft). Never have had more than 8 sunny days in any of our 23 Novembers; never had more sunny days than cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Fir the most part November has been Novembery so far. exactly. we can tend to get ahead of ourselves around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Yeah PAC a little worse but not terrible. Just need to prevent a PAC chinook firehose which so far seems to be working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 I am perfectly ok with us not getting heavy Snow at this point. Winter ( Meteorological that is ) doesn't officially start until December. And.. There is some truth to having a lack luster Winter of we get Snow to early here in Southern New England. I am patiently waiting and positively optimistic for a good Winter for us here. Time will tell. Trying not to exaust myself to early with worrying about a storm ( Snow ) for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 That's an ugly end to the OP Euro run with a nice one-eyed pig setting up over the Bering Region...hopefully that changes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's an ugly end to the OP Euro run with a nice one-eyed pig setting up over the Bering Region...hopefully that changes again. Op runs ftl. Let’s see why the ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's an ugly end to the OP Euro run with a nice one-eyed pig setting up over the Bering Region...hopefully that changes again. It's an ugly run wire to wire. Another nasty cutter set up at the end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Parts of NNE are still in play for something early to mid next week. It's a convoluted looking thing. Good luck. I never had any interest in that...maybe you can pull off something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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