November Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

EPO cold load into the Can Shield. It's been a recurring model -run theme now going back 2 or 3 days of Euro oper ...with other models in aggregate more than less on board>

EPS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=eps&p=500h_anom&rh=2021111200&fh=240&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

...less impressive but loading still is the GEFS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2021111200&fh=240&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

Today's warm wash with west frontal wall is typical of a pre -EPO load event.  What is interesting is that this is 'too far' in advance really for that... But it still reminds of it.  It's almost as though the stretched, progressive speed characteristic of the field is maybe skewing that but that's hypothesis, more suggestive than evidentiary ...

Still we also juggle anticipation for muting anomalies tendency, moving deep range into mids, too - but... it appears the Pacific wants to be in the AB phase ( east of the Dateline) so that adds to the over-arcing theme as having confidence... Shades of Thanks Giving 2018 with a cold whip?  it may be out there... but it's vastly too early for any clue about embedded feature(s).  I still see 18 to 24th for a corrective event or series achieving that.  The fast flow does lend to pearling -

[Torch Tiger]

ahem

[CoastalWx]

Time to steer the ship back lol. 0.65" here of tropical storm conditions.

[PhineasC]

42 degrees and heavy rain. Over an inch now. 

[Lava Rock]

0.71". Nice little storm.

[George001]

Guys get a look at the Canadian 200 hours out, it’s a coastal scraper but a massive 972 mb low offshore. If that comes up the coast, while cold air is marginal at this time of the year, due to the strength of the low, it would undergo rapid cyclogenesis and create its own cold air via dynamic cooling. That would result in severe blizzard conditions from NYC to Maine. The storm is caused by the northern branch diving to the south, tapping into the warm gulf coast waters, going negatively tilted. The low then transfers from the Midwest to off the mid Atlantic coast, turning into a Miller B. This is a low probability at this time (due to climo and limited North Atlantic blocking), but the model guidance is forecasting North Atlantic blocking to develop a couple days later. If that develops just a little earlier, the probability of this massive nor’easter coming to fruition increases. More likely, things don’t quite come together, but then when the North Atlantic blocking develops the last week of November, we start getting big winter storm threats.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Guys get a look at the Canadian 200 hours out

Nah I'm good. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

Guys get a look at the Canadian 200 hours out, it’s a coastal scraper but a massive 972 mb low offshore. If that comes up the coast, while cold air is marginal at this time of the year, due to the strength of the low, it would undergo rapid cyclogenesis and create its own cold air via dynamic cooling. That would result in severe blizzard conditions from NYC to Maine. The storm is caused by the northern branch diving to the south, tapping into the warm gulf coast waters, going negatively tilted. The low then transfers from the Midwest to off the mid Atlantic coast, turning into a Miller B. This is a low probability at this time (due to climo and limited North Atlantic blocking), but the model guidance is forecasting North Atlantic blocking to develop a couple days later. If that develops just a little earlier, the probability of this massive nor’easter coming to fruition increases. More likely, things don’t quite come together, but then when the North Atlantic blocking develops the last week of November, we start getting big winter storm threats.

Beer ?

[dan11295]

Lots of blocked catch basins with all the leaves on the ground. Had to take a couple of short detours on my way home.

[HoarfrostHubb]

 here in the Hubb

 

[ORH_wxman]

T-day week looks cold on EPS. Might get a snow threat out of that look.

[SJonesWX]

24 minutes ago, George001 said:

Guys get a look at the Canadian 200 hours out, This is a low probability at this time 

All you needed to say

[Ginx snewx]

2.27 final, stick season 

[Chrisrotary12]

Admittedly was not expecting to see the sun today. This is a nice surprise.

[Ginx snewx]

Oaks hanging on for dear life. Oak leaf disaster today though.

[CoastalWx]

Lost a lot of leaves from the oaks, but lots remain.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Until leaves and crud block the screens and water gushes over them and onto the ground.  Or does that never happen?

Some spells of mod-heavy RA here with gusts 3-5 mph (if that).

Hasn't happened in 26 years yet so I assume it won't. I had a new roof installed last year and unbeknown to me they ripped up the gutter guards with the old roof and threw them into the dumpster. Back a few months when we got the heavy rains what your describing is exactly what happened. Even got water into my basement for the first time. I cleaned the gutters and installed the guards and everything's been hunky dory since.

[DavisStraight]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oaks hanging on for dear life. Oak leaf disaster today though.

My Japanese maple dumped today, driveways covered, have to get the blower out tomorrow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Prob 90% of oak leaves down here after today.  

[Ginx snewx]

51 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Hasn't happened in 26 years yet so I assume it won't. I had a new roof installed last year and unbeknown to me they ripped up the gutter guards with the old roof and threw them into the dumpster. Back a few months when we got the heavy rains what your describing is exactly what happened. Even got water into my basement for the first time. I cleaned the gutters and installed the guards and everything's been hunky dory since.

Same thing happened to me. I was so pissed when I found out. The roofer had moved to NC by the time I realized it. 

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

T-day week looks cold on EPS. Might get a snow threat out of that look.

Thanks, need to get an idea of how to pack for that week.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lost a lot of leaves from the oaks, but lots remain.

About 90% bare ass here now. Tomorrow night wild winds should get that to about 93%. Still will be doing straggler cleanups until it snows . With low sun angle and limited drying tonight and rain tomorrow afternoon .. and wild winds.. I’ll wait until Monday to clean this nightmare disaster up .

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Thanks, need to get an idea of how to pack for that week.

Still some differences with GEFS. The EPS are much colder that week than GEFS. 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oaks hanging on for dear life. Oak leaf disaster today though.

I thought you said all yours were burnt brown and mainly bare? You’ve had like 6 freezes .  That looks like it was taken on the water in S Wey?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

2.27 final, stick season 

One post stick season.. one post says loaded Oaks. Which one is real?

You had the most in all of New England if 2.27 

.70 here 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

One post stick season.. one post says loaded Oaks. Which one is real?

You had the most in all of New England if 2.27 

.70 here 

*

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought you said all yours were burnt brown and mainly bare? You’ve had like 6 freezes .  That looks like it was taken on the water in S Wey?

Color blind? 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Color blind? 

Sticks , dicks, or leaves? Which is it 

[tavwtby]

2.16" final here, early afternoon was tropical storm like, pouring rain and pounding leaves...nice piece to watch thanksgiving week eh?